Recent short-range model consensus from agencies including the China Meteorological Administration points to typical early-August subtropical conditions in Shanghai, with overnight radiative cooling limited by high humidity near 80% and light winds, positioning a 27°C minimum as the leading outcome at 50.5% implied probability. Historical climatology shows early-month lows averaging 25–27°C, and current extended forecasts indicate no incoming cold fronts or typhoon-related cooling through August 4. This keeps 26°C and 28–29°C as secondary clusters while sharply discounting outcomes below 25°C. Updated model runs in the next 24–48 hours will refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日8月4日の上海の最低気温は？
8月4日の上海の最低気温は？
27℃ 40%
26°C 28%
29℃ 16%
28℃ 15%
新規
新規
2026/08/04
21℃以下
4%
22℃
10%
23°C
2%
24℃
10%
25℃
7%
26°C
28%
27℃
50%
28℃
15%
29℃
13%
30°C
1%
31°C以上
1%
27℃ 40%
26°C 28%
29℃ 16%
28℃ 15%
新規
新規
2026/08/04
21℃以下
$20 Vol.
4%
22℃
$20 Vol.
10%
23°C
$11 Vol.
2%
24℃
$16 Vol.
10%
25℃
$16 Vol.
7%
26°C
$0 Vol.
28%
27℃
$15 Vol.
50%
28℃
$6 Vol.
15%
29℃
$86 Vol.
13%
30°C
$0 Vol.
1%
31°C以上
$10 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent short-range model consensus from agencies including the China Meteorological Administration points to typical early-August subtropical conditions in Shanghai, with overnight radiative cooling limited by high humidity near 80% and light winds, positioning a 27°C minimum as the leading outcome at 50.5% implied probability. Historical climatology shows early-month lows averaging 25–27°C, and current extended forecasts indicate no incoming cold fronts or typhoon-related cooling through August 4. This keeps 26°C and 28–29°C as secondary clusters while sharply discounting outcomes below 25°C. Updated model runs in the next 24–48 hours will refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
マーケット開始日： Aug 2, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
音量
$200終了日
2026/08/04マーケット開始日
Aug 2, 2026, 12:30 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent short-range model consensus from agencies including the China Meteorological Administration points to typical early-August subtropical conditions in Shanghai, with overnight radiative cooling limited by high humidity near 80% and light winds, positioning a 27°C minimum as the leading outcome at 50.5% implied probability. Historical climatology shows early-month lows averaging 25–27°C, and current extended forecasts indicate no incoming cold fronts or typhoon-related cooling through August 4. This keeps 26°C and 28–29°C as secondary clusters while sharply discounting outcomes below 25°C. Updated model runs in the next 24–48 hours will refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
音量
$200終了日
2026/08/04マーケット開始日
Aug 2, 2026, 12:30 AM ETRecent short-range model consensus from agencies including the China Meteorological Administration points to typical early-August subtropical conditions in Shanghai, with overnight radiative cooling limited by high humidity near 80% and light winds, positioning a 27°C minimum as the leading outcome at 50.5% implied probability. Historical climatology shows early-month lows averaging 25–27°C, and current extended forecasts indicate no incoming cold fronts or typhoon-related cooling through August 4. This keeps 26°C and 28–29°C as secondary clusters while sharply discounting outcomes below 25°C. Updated model runs in the next 24–48 hours will refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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