Latest ensemble forecasts from global models highlight a transitional pattern over the Sichuan Basin, with reduced monsoon moisture and partial clearing on August 4 potentially allowing peak insolation to push highs into the low-to-mid 30s. Persistent high humidity near 80% and scattered convective showers remain the key variables that could cap readings at 31–32°C through evaporative cooling and reduced solar radiation, explaining the tight clustering around 32–34°C outcomes. Historical August climatology shows typical maxima of 30–34°C, but any delay in ridge strengthening or earlier precipitation onset would favor the lower probabilities currently priced for 35°C or above. Updated CMA and ECMWF runs expected within 24 hours will refine these thresholds.