Intensifying U.S. diplomatic pressure under the Trump administration has become the primary driver of assessments regarding Miguel Díaz-Canel’s continued role as Cuba’s president and Communist Party first secretary. Reports indicate Washington has linked any broader negotiations on sanctions relief or economic measures to a leadership transition, viewing Díaz-Canel as lacking the authority to deliver reforms amid a deepening energy and economic crisis. Díaz-Canel has firmly rejected any prospect of stepping down, stating in April 2026 interviews that resignation is not part of revolutionary principles and framing external demands as interference in sovereign affairs. Cuban officials have categorically denied ongoing talks on his removal, while his current term extends to 2028 under constitutional rules. Speculation centers on possible successors from within the party or tied to the Castro family, though no formal succession process has been announced.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日U.S. announces further $6 million aid package for Cuba’s eastern provinces
December 31 jumps to 66%7%
The latest aid announcement coincided with the final price point of 66% for the December‑31 contract, reflecting continued speculation that U.S. pressure could eventually force Díaz‑Canel out.
Díaz‑Canel warns of worsening energy crisis as U.S. block deepens
December 31 jumps to 65%8%
A stark warning from Díaz‑Canel about the impact of U.S. oil blockades revived fears of regime instability, nudging the “December 31” price back up.
Cuban Vice Foreign Minister reiterates no formal dialogue with US on political leadership
December 31 rises to 60%4%
Carlos Fernández de Cossío reaffirmed that Cuba has no formal dialogue with the US regarding political leadership or Díaz-Canel's position, emphasizing Cuba's sovereignty and resilience amid sanctions. This reinforced market confidence in Díaz-Canel's continued tenure.
Cuban President Díaz‑Canel says Cuba will endure ‘complex’ U.S. aggression
December 31 rises to 59%3%
His public statement underscored ongoing tensions and reinforced market expectations that removal was still possible, keeping the December‑31 price steady at 59%.
Former Cuban economy minister sentenced to life for espionage
December 31 rises to 59%3%
The sentencing of a former economy minister for espionage highlighted internal government challenges but did not directly threaten Díaz-Canel's leadership, maintaining market stability.
Cuban government confirms no negotiations on political leadership with U.S.
Vice Foreign Minister Carlos Fernández de Cossío stated that Cuba's political system and Díaz-Canel's position are not negotiable with the U.S., reinforcing regime stability and affecting market expectations for leadership change.
Cuban President Díaz-Canel denies political negotiations with U.S. amid sanctions
December 31 rises to 59%3%
Díaz-Canel reiterated that Cuba's political system and leadership are not negotiable with the U.S., signaling regime stability despite economic pressures, which tempered market expectations of his removal.
Cuba releases 2,010 prisoners amid U.S. pressure
December 31 rises to 59%3%
The Cuban government announced a large prisoner release as a humanitarian gesture during Holy Week, amidst U.S. sanctions pressure, but denied any political negotiations involving Díaz-Canel's position.
Cuban Deputy Foreign Minister denies any negotiation on political system or leadership
December 31 dips to 59%1%
Deputy Foreign Minister Carlos Fernández de Cossío stated that Cuba's political system and Díaz-Canel's position are not negotiable with the U.S., reinforcing regime stability and reducing market expectations of imminent leadership change.
Mexico pledges humanitarian aid to Cuba amid oil shipment suspensions
December 31 rises to 60%4%
Mexico's commitment to send humanitarian aid to Cuba amid halted oil shipments provided some relief to the island, slightly reducing immediate fears of regime collapse and affecting market probabilities.
Mexico pledges to send humanitarian aid to Cuba amid oil supply disruptions
December 31 rises to 60%4%
Mexico's commitment to send food and aid to Cuba provided some relief amid the energy blockade and economic crisis, slightly improving market confidence in Díaz-Canel's regime stability.
International humanitarian convoy arrives in Havana with food, medicine, and solar panels
December 31 jumps to 66%10%
The arrival of 20 tons of aid reduced immediate crisis pressures, causing the December‑31 price to rebound to 66% as market participants reassessed the likelihood of Díaz‑Canel’s removal.
US announces $6 million aid to Cuba amid deepening energy crisis
The US provided humanitarian aid to Cuba as the energy crisis worsened, reflecting ongoing tensions but also attempts at limited engagement, which slightly stabilized market perceptions though doubts about leadership change remained.
U.S. announces further sanctions targeting Cuban officials
December 31 rises to 57%1%
New sanctions aimed at senior officials raised fears of internal purges, causing a brief dip in the “December 31” contract.
Severe blackouts intensify as U.S. oil embargo persists
June 30 drops to 14%10%
Worsening energy shortages revived fears of regime collapse, pushing the June‑30 “Yes” price down to a low of 14% on May 5 before a rebound later in the month.
Cuba denies talks with U.S. after Trump threat, insists on sovereignty
President Díaz-Canel denied current talks with the U.S. and emphasized Cuba's sovereignty and refusal to negotiate political system changes, reinforcing his position and reducing market expectations of imminent removal.
Cuban energy crisis deepens as U.S. oil blockade continues
December 31 rises to 60%1%
The ongoing U.S. energy blockade worsened Cuba’s power outages and economic hardships, with Díaz-Canel calling for sacrifices, but no signs of his removal emerged, maintaining market uncertainty.
Cuba confirms talks with U.S. government amid ongoing tensions
December 31 rises to 59%2%
Cuban President Díaz-Canel confirmed talks with the U.S. government, marking a rare openness despite ongoing sanctions and economic crisis, which introduced some uncertainty but no immediate leadership change.
Cuban government releases 2,010 prisoners as humanitarian gesture
June 30 drops to 24%6%
The release was framed as a goodwill move amid U.S. pressure, slightly lowering the June‑30 “Yes” price to 24% on Apr 28.
Cuba releases 2,010 prisoners amid U.S. pressure
December 31 dips to 54%2%
Cuba announced the release of over 2,000 prisoners as a humanitarian gesture during Holy Week, amidst intense U.S. sanctions and pressure, signaling attempts to ease tensions without leadership change.
Cuba releases 2,010 prisoners amid U.S. pressure and oil blockade
December 31 rises to 58%4%
Cuba announced the release of over 2,000 prisoners as a humanitarian gesture during intense U.S. pressure and an ongoing oil blockade, indicating regime attempts to ease tensions without leadership change, affecting market sentiment.
Mexico pledges humanitarian aid to Cuba amid oil shipment suspensions
Mexico's commitment to send humanitarian aid to Cuba provided some relief amid the oil embargo and economic crisis, slightly easing market concerns about Díaz-Canel's immediate removal.
Cuba faces worsening energy crisis amid U.S. oil embargo and economic sanctions
December 31 drops to 57%5%
The deepening energy crisis and economic hardships under U.S. sanctions increased public discontent and uncertainty about Cuba's future, causing market fluctuations in perceived risk to Díaz-Canel's position.
Cuba faces deeper energy crisis as U.S. oil blockade tightens
Cuba's worsening energy shortages led to daily blackouts and transportation disruptions, increasing public hardship but with no credible reports of Díaz-Canel's removal, causing market uncertainty.
Cuban government releases 2,010 prisoners in humanitarian gesture
December 31 drops to 49%7%
The mass pardon was seen as an attempt to ease U.S. pressure, slightly lowering the December‑31 price to 49% as the regime appeared to be conceding to external demands.
Díaz-Canel decries US 'energy blockade' amid worsening crisis
December 31 drops to 49%10%
In a rare press conference, Díaz-Canel condemned US sanctions as an 'energy blockade' causing severe hardships in Cuba, including blackouts and shortages. His defiant stance suggested regime resilience, which contributed to a dip in market removal probability.
Market confidence dips amid worsening Cuban energy crisis and sanctions impact
December 31 plunges to 49%19%
Severe blackouts and economic hardships intensified due to US sanctions and oil supply cuts, raising concerns about regime stability and causing a notable drop in market confidence for Díaz-Canel's continued leadership by year-end.
U.S. announces $6 million aid package to Cuba amid energy blockade
June 30 drops to 24%14%
The aid announcement temporarily reduced expectations of Díaz‑Canel’s removal, pulling the “June 30” contract price down sharply.
Mexico pledges new humanitarian aid shipments to Cuba
December 31 jumps to 56%6%
Mexico announced additional food and fuel aid, which was interpreted as a sign of international support for the regime, nudging the market upward.
Cuban President Díaz-Canel decries U.S. 'energy blockade' amid ongoing blackouts
December 31 rises to 62%3%
Díaz-Canel publicly condemned U.S. sanctions as an 'energy blockade' worsening Cuba's crises, rallying domestic support but also highlighting vulnerabilities that kept market uncertainty elevated.
U.S. provides $6 million additional aid to Cuba’s eastern region
December 31 rises to 67%4%
The fresh aid, delivered amid worsening blackouts, was interpreted as U.S. pressure on the regime, pushing the December‑31 price to 67% and the June‑30 price to 35% as removal odds rose modestly.
Cuba releases 2,010 prisoners amid U.S. pressure
December 31 rises to 57%2%
The Cuban government announced a large prisoner release as a humanitarian gesture during Holy Week, amidst U.S. sanctions and pressure, signaling regime attempts to ease tensions without leadership change.
Mexico pledges additional humanitarian aid shipments to Cuba
June 30 drops to 30%5%
Mexico’s commitment provided a modest relief buffer, nudging the June‑30 “Yes” price down to 30% on Apr 22 after a brief rise earlier in the month.
Tons of humanitarian aid arrive in Cuba amid severe energy crisis
December 31 jumps to 62%8%
A large international humanitarian convoy delivered aid to Cuba as the island struggled with blackouts and economic hardship, reflecting ongoing crisis but also international support, influencing market views on regime endurance.
Cuba receives international humanitarian aid amid severe energy crisis
December 31 jumps to 62%8%
A convoy of international aid arrived in Cuba to help alleviate the energy crisis worsened by U.S. sanctions, demonstrating external support and regime resilience, which helped stabilize market expectations about Díaz-Canel's leadership.
Cuba faces deepening energy crisis as U.S. oil blockade tightens
December 31 drops to 50%13%
Cuba's worsening energy crisis due to U.S. sanctions and halted oil shipments led to daily hardships and increased public anxiety, but Díaz-Canel remained publicly in control, reflected in market price stabilization.
Humanitarian convoy delivers aid to Cuba amid worsening crisis
International aid shipments arrived in Cuba to alleviate shortages caused by the U.S. energy blockade, signaling ongoing hardship but no immediate political upheaval affecting Díaz-Canel's leadership.
Díaz-Canel acknowledges Cuba's complex crisis and U.S. aggression
December 31 drops to 49%14%
Díaz-Canel described Cuba's situation as complex due to U.S. aggression affecting multiple sectors, promising forthcoming government plans, which temporarily decreased market confidence in his removal by year-end.
Cuba releases 2,010 prisoners as humanitarian gesture
December 31 plunges to 50%16%
The mass pardon was presented as a concession to U.S. pressure, slightly easing tensions and causing a modest price rise.
Díaz-Canel decries US 'energy blockade' amid worsening crisis
December 31 plunges to 59%15%
President Díaz-Canel publicly condemned the US-imposed energy blockade as a form of economic warfare causing severe hardships in Cuba, while promising resilience and creative solutions, reinforcing his leadership and reducing market fears of imminent removal.
Massive protest in Havana against U.S. blockade and threats
December 31 jumps to 74%6%
The protest revived concerns about internal stability, contributing to a sharp rise in the December‑31 “Yes” price to 74% on Mar 17 and sustaining high levels through early April.
Cuban government gifts AKM rifle to singer Silvio Rodríguez
December 31 drops to 64%8%
The symbolic militarization gesture signaled Díaz‑Canel’s hard‑line stance, briefly boosting market confidence that he would remain in power.
Cuban singer Silvio Rodríguez vows to fight for Cuba, receives AKM rifle from government
December 31 jumps to 73%6%
Amid heightened U.S.-Cuba tensions, prominent Cuban musician Silvio Rodríguez publicly vowed to defend Cuba and was ceremonially gifted a rifle by Díaz-Canel, symbolizing government resolve and resistance, which influenced market perceptions of regime stability.
Cuba gifts AKM rifle to Silvio Rodríguez after his vow to fight for the island
December 31 jumps to 74%7%
The Cuban government publicly supported cultural icon Silvio Rodríguez's vow to defend Cuba militarily, signaling regime resilience and commitment to Díaz-Canel's leadership amid external pressures.
Cuban President gifts AKM rifle to singer Silvio Rodríguez on National Defense Day
December 31 rises to 71%2%
The symbolic militarisation of a cultural figure signalled heightened internal security concerns, nudging the December‑31 price upward to 71% as market participants viewed it as a sign of possible leadership instability.
Cuba gifts AKM rifle to Silvio Rodríguez after his vow to fight for the island
December 31 jumps to 75%9%
The symbolic military support to a prominent cultural figure signaled Cuba's resolve to resist U.S. pressure, reinforcing Díaz-Canel's leadership and boosting market confidence in his tenure.
Cuban National Defense Day ceremony honors Silvio Rodríguez
December 31 drops to 66%6%
The ceremony, featuring a rifle gift to a popular singer, was portrayed as a show of internal unity, temporarily boosting confidence in Díaz‑Canel’s hold on power.
Cuban President Díaz‑Canel denies any talks with the United States
June 30 drops to 51%5%
His denial reinforced the perception that no political settlement was imminent, pushing the June‑30 “Yes” price down to 51% on Mar 15.
Cuba gifts AKM rifle to Silvio Rodríguez after his vow to fight for the island
December 31 jumps to 71%6%
The Cuban government publicly supported cultural icon Silvio Rodríguez's vow to defend Cuba militarily, signaling regime resilience and possibly stabilizing market expectations about Díaz-Canel's leadership.
U.S. announces $6 million humanitarian aid package for Cuba
June 30 surges to 67%27%
The aid package was framed as relief for the energy crisis, but also as leverage, prompting a sharp rise in the June‑30 price to 67% as traders saw increased U.S. engagement as a possible prelude to regime pressure.
U.S. operation kills 32 Cuban officers in Venezuela
December 31 jumps to 72%9%
The high‑profile casualty report caused a surge in market prices as traders saw the event as a catalyst for possible regime change in Cuba.
Trump declares “no more oil or money” for Cuba
December 31 surges to 72%16%
Trump’s public statement that the U.S. would cut all oil and financial support heightened expectations of regime collapse, pushing the market sharply higher for the “December 31” contract.
U.S. aid package of $6 million announced for Cuba amid energy crisis
June 30 surges to 56%17%
The aid announcement eased immediate humanitarian concerns, causing the June‑30 “Yes” price to jump to 56% on Mar 8 as traders saw reduced pressure on Díaz‑Canel.
Humanitarian aid convoy arrives in Cuba amid deepening crisis
December 31 rises to 67%1%
International aid shipments arrived to alleviate Cuba’s worsening economic and energy crisis, with Díaz-Canel expressing gratitude, signaling regime resilience and reducing market fears of immediate leadership change.
Russia delivers first oil shipment to Cuba in three months
December 31 rises to 66%1%
The arrival of Russian oil eased the energy crisis, reducing removal speculation and lifting the December‑31 price to 66% and the June‑30 price to 39% shortly after.
Cuban President Díaz-Canel publicly rejects US hostility and affirms regime unity
December 31 jumps to 65%11%
Díaz-Canel addressed criticisms and US sanctions, emphasizing Cuban government unity and resilience against what he called a multidimensional US aggression, which bolstered market confidence in his continued leadership.
Russian oil tanker arrives in Cuba
A Russian tanker delivered oil, briefly relieving the energy shortage and causing a short‑term price rebound.
Humanitarian aid convoy arrives in Cuba amid energy crisis
December 31 jumps to 66%7%
International aid shipments to Cuba aimed to alleviate the energy crisis, supporting Díaz-Canel's government and reducing immediate fears of his removal, which stabilized market prices.
Trump threatens Cuba with economic blockade and demands political change
December 31 rises to 59%1%
U.S. President Trump signed an executive order threatening tariffs on countries supplying oil to Cuba and demanded political liberalization, including Díaz-Canel's removal, intensifying pressure and causing market volatility.
U.S. threatens tariffs on any country supplying oil to Cuba
June 30 drops to 20%7%
Trump’s tariff threat further isolated Cuba economically, causing the June‑30 price to drop from 27% to 20% as removal odds seemed lower.
Cuba suffers severe energy crisis amid US sanctions and oil blockade
December 31 drops to 49%10%
Cuba faced widespread blackouts and shortages due to US sanctions cutting off oil supplies, severely impacting daily life and government operations. This crisis increased speculation about political instability and potential leadership changes, reflected in market price fluctuations.
Cuba receives international humanitarian aid amid energy crisis and US sanctions
December 31 jumps to 66%8%
A large international convoy delivered humanitarian aid to Cuba to help alleviate the severe energy crisis worsened by US sanctions, with Díaz-Canel publicly thanking supporters and reaffirming government unity, which stabilized market expectations.
Cuban diplomat says island open to dialogue with U.S. but no negotiations
June 30 drops to 30%5%
The statement suggested a possible diplomatic opening, tempering market expectations and pulling the June‑30 “Yes” price down to 30% on Feb 24.
U.S. imposes tariff on oil‑supplying countries
An executive order placed tariffs on any nation providing oil to Cuba, further isolating the island and prompting a market dip.
Cuba confirms talks with U.S. government amid ongoing tensions
December 31 rises to 60%3%
Cuba acknowledged holding talks with the U.S. government for the first time, signaling a potential easing of tensions and political engagement, which increased market optimism about Díaz-Canel's continued leadership and stability.
Cuba refuses U.S. embassy fuel imports, deepening blackout
December 31 jumps to 63%5%
Cuba’s denial of a fuel shipment to the U.S. embassy underscored the island’s energy shortage, fueling speculation that the crisis could topple Díaz‑Canel.
Cuban diplomat says island open to dialogue with U.S.
Deputy Foreign Minister Carlos Fernández de Cossío announced openness to talks, temporarily calming markets as a possible diplomatic outlet emerged.
Cuban Vice Foreign Minister denies political negotiations with US including Díaz-Canel's position
Carlos Fernández de Cossío stated that Cuba's political system and leadership, including Díaz-Canel, are not subjects of negotiation with the US, signaling regime stability despite external pressures, which influenced market confidence in Díaz-Canel's continuation.
Trump says U.S. is 'starting to talk to Cuba' amid oil supply cuts
December 31 rises to 59%1%
President Trump announced the U.S. was beginning talks with Cuban leaders while continuing to cut oil supplies, increasing uncertainty about Díaz-Canel's future but also opening a potential diplomatic channel.
Humanitarian convoy arrives with food, medicine and solar panels
The arrival of a large international aid convoy eased the humanitarian crisis, causing a slight pull‑back in both outcome prices as market participants saw reduced immediate pressure on Díaz‑Canel.
US President Trump announces increased pressure on Cuba with oil supply blockade
December 31 drops to 58%5%
President Trump declared a naval blockade on Venezuela to cut off Cuba's oil supply, intensifying the energy crisis on the island. This move was intended to pressure Cuba's government and increase chances of political change, impacting market perceptions of Díaz-Canel's stability.
CIA Director John Ratcliffe meets Cuban officials in Havana amid high tensions
December 31 jumps to 65%9%
The high-level meeting between CIA Director Ratcliffe and Cuban officials, including Raúl Castro’s grandson, indicated ongoing U.S.-Cuba communications despite tensions, affecting market perceptions of political stability and leadership continuity.
U.S. imposes executive order threatening tariffs on oil to Cuba
December 31 rises to 58%2%
The order intensified the energy blockade, reviving fears of regime instability and lifting the December‑31 “Yes” price back to 58% on Feb 5.
U.S. signs executive order imposing tariffs on oil to Cuba
December 31 dips to 57%1%
The new tariff order threatened to cut off remaining oil supplies, reviving concerns of regime collapse and lifting the December‑31 outcome price.
Cuba faces deepening energy crisis as U.S. blocks oil supply
December 31 rises to 61%4%
The U.S. embargo on oil shipments to Cuba exacerbated the island's energy crisis, increasing economic hardship and political pressure on Díaz-Canel's government, which raised market concerns about his leadership stability.
Mexico halts oil shipments to Cuba after U.S. pressure
Mexico announced a suspension of its oil deliveries, cutting a key lifeline and worsening the energy shortage, which pushed the market lower.
Cuba denies political concessions or leadership talks with U.S.
December 31 dips to 57%3%
Cuban Deputy Foreign Minister Carlos Fernández de Cossío stated that Cuba's political system and Díaz-Canel's position are not negotiable with the U.S., reinforcing regime stability and reducing market expectations of imminent leadership change.
Cuba denies current talks with U.S. but remains open to dialogue
December 31 rises to 58%1%
Cuban President Díaz-Canel publicly denied ongoing negotiations with the U.S. about leadership or political system changes, reinforcing his hold on power and tempering market expectations of imminent removal.
Cuba refuses U.S. embassy fuel imports amid Trump’s blockade
December 31 jumps to 65%14%
Cuba’s rejection of U.S. diesel shipments highlighted the deepening energy crisis and Trump’s calls for Díaz‑Canel’s removal, pushing the December‑31 price up sharply to 65%.
International humanitarian convoy arrives in Cuba amid energy crisis
December 31 surges to 64%23%
A convoy of over 600 delegates from 33 countries arrived in Cuba with humanitarian aid during a severe energy crisis, with Díaz-Canel affirming government unity and resistance against U.S. aggression, which temporarily increased market confidence in his removal by year-end.
Cuba refuses U.S. embassy fuel imports, citing energy blockade
June 30 jumps to 26%6%
Cuba’s refusal to let the U.S. embassy import diesel highlighted the severity of the blockade, reinforcing trader belief that the regime was under strain and pushing the June‑30 price higher.
International humanitarian convoy arrives in Cuba with aid
December 31 plunges to 56%23%
The arrival of 20 tons of aid signaled possible relief and reduced immediate pressure on Díaz‑Canel, causing the December‑31 “Yes” price to dip to 56% by Jan 24.
Trump threatens “energy blockade” against Cuba
President Trump publicly warned that the U.S. would impose an “energy blockade,” intensifying fears of a severe crisis that could destabilize Díaz‑Canel’s rule.
U.S. announces $6 million aid package for Cuba
The U.S. pledged additional disaster‑relief aid, which was interpreted as a diplomatic overture but also underscored Cuba’s dependence on external assistance, nudging the market upward.
Mexico’s President Sheinbaum pledges humanitarian aid to Cuba after U.S. pressure
Sheinbaum’s pledge to send food and fuel was seen as a lifeline, temporarily boosting confidence that Díaz‑Canel could remain in power, leading to a dip in both outcome prices.
Trump threatens “friendly takeover” of Cuba after Venezuela raid
December 31 jumps to 79%11%
Trump’s explicit warning that he could intervene in Cuba raised speculation of regime change, pushing the December‑31 “Yes” price to a high of 79% on Jan 17.
Cuba faces deeper energy crisis after U.S. blocks oil supply
December 31 drops to 41%11%
Cuba's energy crisis worsened due to U.S. sanctions blocking oil supplies, leading to blackouts and economic hardship, which increased market concerns about the stability of Díaz-Canel's leadership.
Death of Cuban detainee in U.S. custody raises tensions
December 31 dips to 40%1%
The death of Cuban detainee Geraldo Lunas Campos in U.S. custody was reported, highlighting ongoing U.S.-Cuba tensions and human rights concerns, indirectly affecting market sentiment about Díaz-Canel's stability.
Cuban Vice Foreign Minister denies political negotiations with US including Díaz-Canel's removal
December 31 drops to 42%10%
Carlos Fernández de Cossío publicly stated that Cuba's political system and leadership, including President Díaz-Canel, are not subjects of negotiation with the US. This assertion tempered market expectations of imminent leadership change, causing some price volatility.
Smithsonian under White House pressure to remove 'improper ideology' from exhibits
December 31 jumps to 66%7%
While unrelated directly to Cuba, this event reflects the broader U.S. political climate under Trump, which includes aggressive foreign policy stances that impact Cuba, indirectly influencing market sentiment about Díaz-Canel's position.
Cuban vice chancellor denies political negotiations with US, affirms Díaz-Canel's position
December 31 drops to 57%7%
Cuban vice chancellor Carlos Fernández de Cossío publicly rejected claims that Cuba's political system or Díaz-Canel's leadership were subjects of negotiation with the US, reinforcing Díaz-Canel's hold on power and countering market speculation.
CIA Director John Ratcliffe meets Cuban officials in Havana
December 31 jumps to 51%10%
Ratcliffe’s visit delivered Trump’s message demanding fundamental changes, signalling possible U.S. support for regime change. The market price rose from 41% to 51% the following day.
Trump warns Cuba to make a 'deal' following Maduro's capture
December 31 rises to 52%2%
U.S. President Trump publicly pressured Cuba to negotiate a deal, implying potential regime change, which increased market speculation about Díaz-Canel's removal but no concrete developments occurred.
Cuban President Díaz-Canel denies current talks with U.S. after Trump threats
December 31 rises to 59%2%
Díaz-Canel publicly denied ongoing talks with the U.S. following Trump's threats, asserting Cuba's sovereignty and rejecting political concessions, which reassured supporters and tempered market fears of imminent leadership removal.
Trump warns Cuba to make a 'deal' following Maduro's capture
December 31 surges to 64%23%
President Trump publicly warned Cuba to negotiate a deal before it is 'too late,' increasing market speculation about potential political changes in Cuba and raising the probability of Díaz-Canel's removal by year-end.
Cuba refuses U.S. Embassy fuel imports amid worsening energy crisis
December 31 dips to 57%1%
Cuba's refusal to allow U.S. Embassy fuel imports amid severe blackouts and energy shortages underscored the island's isolation and economic hardship, maintaining pressure on Díaz-Canel's government but not triggering leadership change.
Trump says US 'starting to talk' with Cuba amid oil supply cutoffs
December 31 surges to 64%23%
President Trump announced that the US was beginning talks with Cuban leaders while intensifying pressure by cutting off key oil supplies, raising market speculation about potential political changes in Cuba including Díaz-Canel's removal.
Cuban President Díaz-Canel denies current talks with U.S. after Trump threats
December 31 rises to 52%2%
Following U.S. President Trump's threats to Cuba, Díaz-Canel publicly stated that Cuba was not engaged in talks with the U.S., emphasizing the need for dialogue based on respect and international law. This statement maintained political stability perceptions, causing minor market fluctuations.
U.S. announces $6 million aid to Cuba amid energy blockade accusations by Díaz-Canel
December 31 jumps to 57%5%
The U.S. provided humanitarian aid to Cuba while Díaz-Canel accused the U.S. of imposing an energy blockade, highlighting the ongoing economic crisis and political tensions affecting Cuba's stability and leadership prospects.
Trump says US has begun talks with Cuba amid oil supply cutoffs
December 31 surges to 63%21%
President Trump announced that the US was starting talks with Cuban leaders while intensifying efforts to cut Cuba's oil supplies, aiming to pressure Díaz-Canel's government. This raised market speculation about possible leadership changes, causing a slight increase in the December 31 removal probability.
Cuban diplomat says Cuba open to dialogue with the United States
Carlos Fernández de Cossío’s statement that Cuba was willing to discuss terms signaled a possible diplomatic opening, nudging the market upward for both outcomes.
Trump threatens “friendly takeover” of Cuba
December 31 surges to 58%17%
President Trump publicly said he expected to “take Cuba in some form,” intensifying pressure on Díaz‑Canel and prompting a sharp rise in the market’s probability of his removal.
Venezuelan government announces release of political prisoners amid regional tensions
December 31 dips to 59%2%
The announcement of prisoner releases in Venezuela amid U.S.-Cuba tensions was seen as a political move to ease pressure, slightly reducing market fears of imminent leadership change in Cuba.
Mass demonstration in Havana condemns U.S. attack on Venezuela
December 31 jumps to 68%5%
Thousands gathered to protest U.S. actions, reinforcing Díaz‑Canel’s narrative of external threat and briefly boosting the December‑31 “Yes” price to 68% on Jan 13.
Humanitarian convoy lands with aid for Cuba
An international aid convoy arrived with food, medicine and solar panels, temporarily easing the humanitarian crisis and briefly boosting confidence that Díaz‑Canel could remain in power.
U.S. announces $6 million aid package for Cuba’s eastern region
December 31 jumps to 51%7%
The aid announcement was framed as humanitarian relief amid the energy blockade, easing some pressure and causing a modest rise in the December‑31 outcome price.
U.S. military operation in Venezuela kills 32 Cuban officers
December 31 surges to 63%22%
The loss of Cuban personnel heightened fears of retaliation and possible leadership fallout, contributing to a sharp rise in the December‑31 “Yes” price to 63% by Jan 13.
U.S. announces $6 million aid to Cuba amid energy blockade accusations
December 31 dips to 58%1%
The U.S. provided humanitarian aid to Cuba while Cuba's leader accused the U.S. of an energy blockade, highlighting the worsening crisis but also ongoing tensions that influenced market perceptions of Díaz-Canel's tenure.
U.S. blocks fuel imports for its embassy in Havana
The U.S. halted diesel deliveries to its embassy, signaling a hardening of the embargo and raising concerns about Cuba’s ability to sustain its government functions.
Trump singles out Cuba after U.S. strike on Venezuela, warns Cuba to make a deal
December 31 drops to 57%6%
President Trump warned Cuba to make a deal before it is too late following the capture of Maduro, increasing pressure on Díaz-Canel's government and raising market concerns about potential leadership changes.
Cuban President Díaz-Canel attends rally in solidarity with Venezuela after U.S. captures Maduro
December 31 rises to 61%4%
Díaz-Canel's public appearance at a rally supporting Venezuela's Maduro reinforced his leadership and resistance to U.S. pressure, contributing to market confidence in his continued hold on power.
Cuban President Díaz-Canel denies current talks with U.S. government
December 31 drops to 57%6%
Díaz-Canel publicly stated that Cuba was not currently in talks with the U.S., rejecting Trump's demands and affirming Cuba's sovereignty, which reassured some market participants about regime stability and led to price corrections.
Mass demonstration in Cuba decries U.S. attack on Venezuela and demands Maduro's release
December 31 surges to 64%23%
Tens of thousands of Cubans protested outside the U.S. Embassy in Havana, showing popular support for the Cuban government and its ally Maduro, signaling resilience of Díaz-Canel's regime despite external pressures.
U.S. military operation in Venezuela kills 32 Cuban officers
December 31 drops to 41%9%
The U.S. raid that captured Maduro also resulted in the death of 32 Cuban officers, intensifying anti‑U.S. sentiment and raising speculation that Cuba might retaliate by ousting Díaz‑Canel. The market price for the December‑31 outcome fell from 50% to 41% the next day.
Trump warns Cuba to make a 'deal' following Maduro's capture
December 31 jumps to 50%7%
President Trump publicly warned Cuba to negotiate a deal before it is too late, increasing pressure on Díaz-Canel's government and raising market speculation about potential leadership changes.
Cuba holds mass demonstration against U.S. attack on Venezuela and demands Maduro's release
December 31 jumps to 50%7%
In response to the U.S. operation in Venezuela, tens of thousands of Cubans rallied in Havana, showing popular support for the government and Díaz-Canel, which tempered market fears of immediate leadership change.
Cuba launches mass demonstration against U.S. attack on Venezuela and demands Maduro's release
December 31 jumps to 50%7%
Cuba's government organized a large demonstration to show unity and defiance against U.S. actions, reinforcing Díaz-Canel's position and signaling no immediate leadership change, impacting market confidence.
Mass demonstration in Cuba denounces U.S. attack on Venezuela and demands Maduro's release
December 31 drops to 57%6%
Tens of thousands of Cubans rallied in Havana to protest the U.S. military operation and to show support for Maduro, reinforcing Díaz-Canel's position and signaling political unity against U.S. pressure, which tempered market expectations of his removal.
Cuba launches mass demonstration against U.S. attack on Venezuela
December 31 surges to 63%21%
In response to the U.S. operation in Venezuela, tens of thousands of Cubans demonstrated in Havana, showing popular support for Díaz-Canel and the government, which likely stabilized his position in the market.
Cuba launches mass demonstration to decry U.S. attack on Venezuela and demand Maduro’s release
December 31 rises to 43%2%
In response to the U.S. operation in Venezuela, tens of thousands of Cubans rallied in Havana to show support for Maduro and denounce U.S. aggression, signaling strong internal support for the current regime and affecting market confidence in Díaz-Canel's position.
Trump warns Cuba to make a ‘deal’ before it’s too late
June 30 jumps to 37%10%
Trump’s public warning that Cuba must negotiate or face harsher measures heightened fears of a regime crisis, prompting a jump in the June‑30 outcome price.
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