Escalated US-Cuba tensions from the Trump administration's oil blockade—severing Venezuelan fuel supplies and triggering Cuba's nationwide blackouts and energy crisis—have prompted Cuban military drills, warnings of potential US aggression, and a sharp rise in US reconnaissance flights near the island, boosting the "Yes" implied probability to 40%. However, ongoing high-level diplomatic talks, including recent US visits to Havana pressing for political reforms and a May 13 offer of $100 million in aid, alongside State Department efforts to de-escalate and Pentagon denials of imminent action, sustain trader consensus at 60% for "No" military clash through 2026. Senate Republican cautions against strikes amid Iran priorities further temper escalation risks, though rhetoric and sanctions keep the outcome uncertain.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
$107,954 Vol.
$107,954 Vol.
2026/12/31
はい
$107,954 Vol.
$107,954 Vol.
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of the United States and Cuba between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between US and Cuban military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the United States Coast Guard is considered part of the United States military, and the Cuban Border Guard is considered part of the Cuban military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Escalated US-Cuba tensions from the Trump administration's oil blockade—severing Venezuelan fuel supplies and triggering Cuba's nationwide blackouts and energy crisis—have prompted Cuban military drills, warnings of potential US aggression, and a sharp rise in US reconnaissance flights near the island, boosting the "Yes" implied probability to 40%. However, ongoing high-level diplomatic talks, including recent US visits to Havana pressing for political reforms and a May 13 offer of $100 million in aid, alongside State Department efforts to de-escalate and Pentagon denials of imminent action, sustain trader consensus at 60% for "No" military clash through 2026. Senate Republican cautions against strikes amid Iran priorities further temper escalation risks, though rhetoric and sanctions keep the outcome uncertain.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of the United States and Cuba between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between US and Cuban military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the United States Coast Guard is considered part of the United States military, and the Cuban Border Guard is considered part of the Cuban military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between US and Cuban military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the United States Coast Guard is considered part of the United States military, and the Cuban Border Guard is considered part of the Cuban military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： Feb 25, 2026, 7:31 PM ET
音量
$107,954終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Feb 25, 2026, 7:31 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of the United States and Cuba between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between US and Cuban military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the United States Coast Guard is considered part of the United States military, and the Cuban Border Guard is considered part of the Cuban military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Escalated US-Cuba tensions from the Trump administration's oil blockade—severing Venezuelan fuel supplies and triggering Cuba's nationwide blackouts and energy crisis—have prompted Cuban military drills, warnings of potential US aggression, and a sharp rise in US reconnaissance flights near the island, boosting the "Yes" implied probability to 40%. However, ongoing high-level diplomatic talks, including recent US visits to Havana pressing for political reforms and a May 13 offer of $100 million in aid, alongside State Department efforts to de-escalate and Pentagon denials of imminent action, sustain trader consensus at 60% for "No" military clash through 2026. Senate Republican cautions against strikes amid Iran priorities further temper escalation risks, though rhetoric and sanctions keep the outcome uncertain.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of the United States and Cuba between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between US and Cuban military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the United States Coast Guard is considered part of the United States military, and the Cuban Border Guard is considered part of the Cuban military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between US and Cuban military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the United States Coast Guard is considered part of the United States military, and the Cuban Border Guard is considered part of the Cuban military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$107,954終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Feb 25, 2026, 7:31 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Escalated US-Cuba tensions from the Trump administration's oil blockade—severing Venezuelan fuel supplies and triggering Cuba's nationwide blackouts and energy crisis—have prompted Cuban military drills, warnings of potential US aggression, and a sharp rise in US reconnaissance flights near the island, boosting the "Yes" implied probability to 40%. However, ongoing high-level diplomatic talks, including recent US visits to Havana pressing for political reforms and a May 13 offer of $100 million in aid, alongside State Department efforts to de-escalate and Pentagon denials of imminent action, sustain trader consensus at 60% for "No" military clash through 2026. Senate Republican cautions against strikes amid Iran priorities further temper escalation risks, though rhetoric and sanctions keep the outcome uncertain.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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