Ongoing diplomatic negotiations between the United States, Denmark, and Greenland for expanded US military bases in southern Greenland—reportedly three new sites like Narsarsuaq and Kangerlussuaq under the 1951 defense pact—have driven trader consensus toward a 90.5% implied probability of no military clash before 2027. These closely guarded talks, progressing since January 2026 with recent working group meetings and a US Northern Command visit to Copenhagen last week, follow President Trump's earlier threats to seize the strategically vital Arctic territory amid Russia and China concerns, but emphasize cooperation rather than confrontation. As NATO allies, both nations prioritize alliance cohesion, with Greenland's prime minister affirming openness to more US presence while sovereignty remains non-negotiable; a Trump envoy's upcoming visit could further solidify de-escalation, though talks breakdown or external Arctic escalations pose tail risks.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
$33,798 Vol.
$33,798 Vol.
2026/12/31
はい
$33,798 Vol.
$33,798 Vol.
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of the United States and Denmark between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between US and Danish military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the United States Coast Guard is considered part of the United States military, and the Royal Danish Navy and other branches of the Danish Armed Forces are considered part of Denmark’s military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Ongoing diplomatic negotiations between the United States, Denmark, and Greenland for expanded US military bases in southern Greenland—reportedly three new sites like Narsarsuaq and Kangerlussuaq under the 1951 defense pact—have driven trader consensus toward a 90.5% implied probability of no military clash before 2027. These closely guarded talks, progressing since January 2026 with recent working group meetings and a US Northern Command visit to Copenhagen last week, follow President Trump's earlier threats to seize the strategically vital Arctic territory amid Russia and China concerns, but emphasize cooperation rather than confrontation. As NATO allies, both nations prioritize alliance cohesion, with Greenland's prime minister affirming openness to more US presence while sovereignty remains non-negotiable; a Trump envoy's upcoming visit could further solidify de-escalation, though talks breakdown or external Arctic escalations pose tail risks.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of the United States and Denmark between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between US and Danish military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the United States Coast Guard is considered part of the United States military, and the Royal Danish Navy and other branches of the Danish Armed Forces are considered part of Denmark’s military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between US and Danish military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the United States Coast Guard is considered part of the United States military, and the Royal Danish Navy and other branches of the Danish Armed Forces are considered part of Denmark’s military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： Jan 14, 2026, 10:50 AM ET
音量
$33,798終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Jan 14, 2026, 10:50 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of the United States and Denmark between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between US and Danish military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the United States Coast Guard is considered part of the United States military, and the Royal Danish Navy and other branches of the Danish Armed Forces are considered part of Denmark’s military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Ongoing diplomatic negotiations between the United States, Denmark, and Greenland for expanded US military bases in southern Greenland—reportedly three new sites like Narsarsuaq and Kangerlussuaq under the 1951 defense pact—have driven trader consensus toward a 90.5% implied probability of no military clash before 2027. These closely guarded talks, progressing since January 2026 with recent working group meetings and a US Northern Command visit to Copenhagen last week, follow President Trump's earlier threats to seize the strategically vital Arctic territory amid Russia and China concerns, but emphasize cooperation rather than confrontation. As NATO allies, both nations prioritize alliance cohesion, with Greenland's prime minister affirming openness to more US presence while sovereignty remains non-negotiable; a Trump envoy's upcoming visit could further solidify de-escalation, though talks breakdown or external Arctic escalations pose tail risks.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of the United States and Denmark between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between US and Danish military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the United States Coast Guard is considered part of the United States military, and the Royal Danish Navy and other branches of the Danish Armed Forces are considered part of Denmark’s military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between US and Danish military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the United States Coast Guard is considered part of the United States military, and the Royal Danish Navy and other branches of the Danish Armed Forces are considered part of Denmark’s military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$33,798終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Jan 14, 2026, 10:50 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing diplomatic negotiations between the United States, Denmark, and Greenland for expanded US military bases in southern Greenland—reportedly three new sites like Narsarsuaq and Kangerlussuaq under the 1951 defense pact—have driven trader consensus toward a 90.5% implied probability of no military clash before 2027. These closely guarded talks, progressing since January 2026 with recent working group meetings and a US Northern Command visit to Copenhagen last week, follow President Trump's earlier threats to seize the strategically vital Arctic territory amid Russia and China concerns, but emphasize cooperation rather than confrontation. As NATO allies, both nations prioritize alliance cohesion, with Greenland's prime minister affirming openness to more US presence while sovereignty remains non-negotiable; a Trump envoy's upcoming visit could further solidify de-escalation, though talks breakdown or external Arctic escalations pose tail risks.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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