The U.S. invasion of Greenland in 2026 carries a 96% trader-implied probability against it, reflecting the absence of any military mobilization or authorization and the explicit January 2026 reversal by President Trump ruling out force in favor of negotiations. Early-year rhetoric on tariffs and acquisition options triggered diplomatic pushback from Denmark, Greenlandic officials, and NATO allies, leading to a Davos framework agreement emphasizing security cooperation without sovereignty transfer by force. Structural barriers include NATO treaty obligations, congressional constraints on unilateral action, and the preference for diplomatic or economic paths such as a Compact of Free Association. Remaining variables that could shift odds include breakdown of Arctic talks, renewed tariff threats, or unforeseen escalations tied to Russia-China activity, though no such developments have materialized by mid-August.