Traders assign a 93.5 percent implied probability that the United States will not invade Greenland in 2026, driven by the complete absence of official military planning, troop deployments, or policy directives indicating any intent to use force. Past statements from U.S. officials have focused on diplomatic interest in the territory for strategic and resource reasons, including potential acquisition through negotiation rather than military action. No recent executive orders, congressional authorizations, or NATO-related developments have altered this baseline. With Greenland remaining under Danish sovereignty and no active territorial disputes or escalatory signals from either government, the market reflects broad consensus around established norms of international law and alliance commitments that would require extraordinary developments to overcome.