Traders are backing "No" at 74% implied probability for a natural disaster in 2026 because official monitoring shows no elevated signals of major events above historical baselines. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration forecasts indicate typical tropical cyclone activity without rapid intensification trends, while United States Geological Survey seismic records confirm stable tectonic patterns and no significant foreshocks through mid-May. Climate indices such as ENSO remain neutral, reducing the likelihood of extreme weather clusters or large-magnitude earthquakes that would meet common market resolution thresholds. This positioning aligns with the rarity of outlier events in a single calendar year relative to long-term averages, though updated model runs and real-time observations could still alter the outlook before year-end.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
$218,685 Vol.
$218,685 Vol.
2026/12/31
はい
$218,685 Vol.
$218,685 Vol.
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Traders are backing "No" at 74% implied probability for a natural disaster in 2026 because official monitoring shows no elevated signals of major events above historical baselines. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration forecasts indicate typical tropical cyclone activity without rapid intensification trends, while United States Geological Survey seismic records confirm stable tectonic patterns and no significant foreshocks through mid-May. Climate indices such as ENSO remain neutral, reducing the likelihood of extreme weather clusters or large-magnitude earthquakes that would meet common market resolution thresholds. This positioning aligns with the rarity of outlier events in a single calendar year relative to long-term averages, though updated model runs and real-time observations could still alter the outlook before year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
マーケット開始日： Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ET
音量
$218,685終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Traders are backing "No" at 74% implied probability for a natural disaster in 2026 because official monitoring shows no elevated signals of major events above historical baselines. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration forecasts indicate typical tropical cyclone activity without rapid intensification trends, while United States Geological Survey seismic records confirm stable tectonic patterns and no significant foreshocks through mid-May. Climate indices such as ENSO remain neutral, reducing the likelihood of extreme weather clusters or large-magnitude earthquakes that would meet common market resolution thresholds. This positioning aligns with the rarity of outlier events in a single calendar year relative to long-term averages, though updated model runs and real-time observations could still alter the outlook before year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
音量
$218,685終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Traders are backing "No" at 74% implied probability for a natural disaster in 2026 because official monitoring shows no elevated signals of major events above historical baselines. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration forecasts indicate typical tropical cyclone activity without rapid intensification trends, while United States Geological Survey seismic records confirm stable tectonic patterns and no significant foreshocks through mid-May. Climate indices such as ENSO remain neutral, reducing the likelihood of extreme weather clusters or large-magnitude earthquakes that would meet common market resolution thresholds. This positioning aligns with the rarity of outlier events in a single calendar year relative to long-term averages, though updated model runs and real-time observations could still alter the outlook before year-end.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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