Recent polling averages show Labour narrowly ahead of National in party vote share, with multiple September surveys placing Labour at 28-31% and National at 27-30%, producing a tight head-to-head margin that underpins the 56.5% trader-implied probability. The National-led coalition has held a slim parliamentary edge since 2023 but faces softening support amid economic pressures and rising minor-party fragmentation, including Opportunity Party gains near the 5% threshold. Labour has released targeted policies on cost-of-living measures, corporate separation, and superannuation adjustments in recent weeks, while National has emphasized competition reforms. With the 7 November election six weeks away and undecided voters elevated, small shifts in turnout or minor-party preferences could still alter the outcome.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日Labour
0% 確率
新規
新規
2026/11/06
Labour
0% 確率
新規
新規
2026/11/06
A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026. New Zealand uses a mixed-member proportional electoral system in which most voters cast two votes: one for a candidate in a single-member electorate and one party vote for a political party list.
This market will resolve to “Labour” if the Labour Party receives a higher percentage of valid party list votes than the National Party in this election.
This market will resolve to “National” if the National Party receives a higher percentage of valid party list votes than the Labour Party in this election.
Percentages of valid party list votes received by the Labour Party and the National Party will be determined by dividing the total number of valid party list votes each party receives by the sum of all valid party list votes cast in the election. This market includes party list votes cast by both the general electorate and the Māori electorate.
This market will resolve solely based on party list votes cast in this election. Electorate votes will not be considered.
If the Labour Party and the National Party receive the same percentage of valid party list votes in this election, this market will resolve 50-50.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the official election results reported by the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/). However, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also suffice.
Recent polling averages show Labour narrowly ahead of National in party vote share, with multiple September surveys placing Labour at 28-31% and National at 27-30%, producing a tight head-to-head margin that underpins the 56.5% trader-implied probability. The National-led coalition has held a slim parliamentary edge since 2023 but faces softening support amid economic pressures and rising minor-party fragmentation, including Opportunity Party gains near the 5% threshold. Labour has released targeted policies on cost-of-living measures, corporate separation, and superannuation adjustments in recent weeks, while National has emphasized competition reforms. With the 7 November election six weeks away and undecided voters elevated, small shifts in turnout or minor-party preferences could still alter the outcome.
A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026. New Zealand uses a mixed-member proportional electoral system in which most voters cast two votes: one for a candidate in a single-member electorate and one party vote for a political party list.
This market will resolve to “Labour” if the Labour Party receives a higher percentage of valid party list votes than the National Party in this election.
This market will resolve to “National” if the National Party receives a higher percentage of valid party list votes than the Labour Party in this election.
Percentages of valid party list votes received by the Labour Party and the National Party will be determined by dividing the total number of valid party list votes each party receives by the sum of all valid party list votes cast in the election. This market includes party list votes cast by both the general electorate and the Māori electorate.
This market will resolve solely based on party list votes cast in this election. Electorate votes will not be considered.
If the Labour Party and the National Party receive the same percentage of valid party list votes in this election, this market will resolve 50-50.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the official election results reported by the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/). However, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also suffice.
This market will resolve to “Labour” if the Labour Party receives a higher percentage of valid party list votes than the National Party in this election.
This market will resolve to “National” if the National Party receives a higher percentage of valid party list votes than the Labour Party in this election.
Percentages of valid party list votes received by the Labour Party and the National Party will be determined by dividing the total number of valid party list votes each party receives by the sum of all valid party list votes cast in the election. This market includes party list votes cast by both the general electorate and the Māori electorate.
This market will resolve solely based on party list votes cast in this election. Electorate votes will not be considered.
If the Labour Party and the National Party receive the same percentage of valid party list votes in this election, this market will resolve 50-50.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the official election results reported by the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/). However, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also suffice.
マーケット開始日： Apr 29, 2026, 7:43 PM ET
音量
$200終了日
2027/11/01マーケット開始日
Apr 29, 2026, 7:43 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026. New Zealand uses a mixed-member proportional electoral system in which most voters cast two votes: one for a candidate in a single-member electorate and one party vote for a political party list.
This market will resolve to “Labour” if the Labour Party receives a higher percentage of valid party list votes than the National Party in this election.
This market will resolve to “National” if the National Party receives a higher percentage of valid party list votes than the Labour Party in this election.
Percentages of valid party list votes received by the Labour Party and the National Party will be determined by dividing the total number of valid party list votes each party receives by the sum of all valid party list votes cast in the election. This market includes party list votes cast by both the general electorate and the Māori electorate.
This market will resolve solely based on party list votes cast in this election. Electorate votes will not be considered.
If the Labour Party and the National Party receive the same percentage of valid party list votes in this election, this market will resolve 50-50.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the official election results reported by the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/). However, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also suffice.
Recent polling averages show Labour narrowly ahead of National in party vote share, with multiple September surveys placing Labour at 28-31% and National at 27-30%, producing a tight head-to-head margin that underpins the 56.5% trader-implied probability. The National-led coalition has held a slim parliamentary edge since 2023 but faces softening support amid economic pressures and rising minor-party fragmentation, including Opportunity Party gains near the 5% threshold. Labour has released targeted policies on cost-of-living measures, corporate separation, and superannuation adjustments in recent weeks, while National has emphasized competition reforms. With the 7 November election six weeks away and undecided voters elevated, small shifts in turnout or minor-party preferences could still alter the outcome.
A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026. New Zealand uses a mixed-member proportional electoral system in which most voters cast two votes: one for a candidate in a single-member electorate and one party vote for a political party list.
This market will resolve to “Labour” if the Labour Party receives a higher percentage of valid party list votes than the National Party in this election.
This market will resolve to “National” if the National Party receives a higher percentage of valid party list votes than the Labour Party in this election.
Percentages of valid party list votes received by the Labour Party and the National Party will be determined by dividing the total number of valid party list votes each party receives by the sum of all valid party list votes cast in the election. This market includes party list votes cast by both the general electorate and the Māori electorate.
This market will resolve solely based on party list votes cast in this election. Electorate votes will not be considered.
If the Labour Party and the National Party receive the same percentage of valid party list votes in this election, this market will resolve 50-50.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the official election results reported by the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/). However, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also suffice.
This market will resolve to “Labour” if the Labour Party receives a higher percentage of valid party list votes than the National Party in this election.
This market will resolve to “National” if the National Party receives a higher percentage of valid party list votes than the Labour Party in this election.
Percentages of valid party list votes received by the Labour Party and the National Party will be determined by dividing the total number of valid party list votes each party receives by the sum of all valid party list votes cast in the election. This market includes party list votes cast by both the general electorate and the Māori electorate.
This market will resolve solely based on party list votes cast in this election. Electorate votes will not be considered.
If the Labour Party and the National Party receive the same percentage of valid party list votes in this election, this market will resolve 50-50.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the official election results reported by the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/). However, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also suffice.
音量
$200終了日
2026/11/07マーケット開始日
Apr 29, 2026, 7:43 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...Recent polling averages show Labour narrowly ahead of National in party vote share, with multiple September surveys placing Labour at 28-31% and National at 27-30%, producing a tight head-to-head margin that underpins the 56.5% trader-implied probability. The National-led coalition has held a slim parliamentary edge since 2023 but faces softening support amid economic pressures and rising minor-party fragmentation, including Opportunity Party gains near the 5% threshold. Labour has released targeted policies on cost-of-living measures, corporate separation, and superannuation adjustments in recent weeks, while National has emphasized competition reforms. With the 7 November election six weeks away and undecided voters elevated, small shifts in turnout or minor-party preferences could still alter the outcome.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日関連
Will Labour Party win the popular vote in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election by 0-5%?
33%
Will Labour Party win the most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?
56%
Will National Party win the second-most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?
51%
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