Multiple partial outages affecting ChatGPT and related services have already occurred in early-to-mid June 2026, including documented incidents on June 1–3, 8, 11, and 12 that impacted free, Go, and other users with elevated errors or availability issues. These align with OpenAI’s large language model scaling challenges, high traffic from over one billion monthly active users, and routine infrastructure demands, even as the status page reports strong aggregate uptime above 99.8%. Traders view this pattern of brief but countable disruptions—common in high-scale AI platforms—as the main driver pushing 4+ outage days to 51.5% implied probability, ahead of 3 days at 26.0%. With two weeks left in the month and ongoing model updates like recent GPT-5.x retirements, the market consensus reflects expectations of continued volatility rather than flawless reliability.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日4+ 52%
2 24%
3 24%
<2 <1%
$10,307 Vol.
$10,307 Vol.
2026/06/30
<2
<1%
2
24%
3
24%
4+
52%
4+ 52%
2 24%
3 24%
<2 <1%
$10,307 Vol.
$10,307 Vol.
2026/06/30
<2
$5,707 Vol.
<1%
2
$650 Vol.
24%
3
$432 Vol.
24%
4+
$3,518 Vol.
52%
This market will resolve to the number of calendar days on which OpenAI's ChatGPT experiences any incident classified as 'Partial/Full Outage' as of the time it is marked as “Resolved” during the specified month (ET).
Only incidents listing ChatGPT under 'Affected components' will be considered. Incidents labeled as affecting 'APIs,' or 'Sora,' but not ChatGPT, will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
Classifications of an incident while it is ongoing will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. Only classifications of events that are resolved will be considered.
Qualifying incidents include outages and other issues classified as 'Partial/Full Outage' when they are resolved, during this market's above-specified timeframe.
Revisions that upgrade an incident’s impact classification to 'Partial/Full Outage' will qualify if the incident was resolved and the revision is published within this market’s timeframe.
This market will resolve at 12:00 PM ET on the day following the specified timeframe, provided no incident that began during the specified timeframe is ongoing, and all relevant data has been released. If either condition is not met, the market will remain open until the incident is marked as “Resolved” and all relevant data has been released. If all relevant data has not been released by the end of the seventh day after the specified timeframe, this market will resolve based on the data available at that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official system status information published by OpenAI on status.openai.com; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Multiple partial outages affecting ChatGPT and related services have already occurred in early-to-mid June 2026, including documented incidents on June 1–3, 8, 11, and 12 that impacted free, Go, and other users with elevated errors or availability issues. These align with OpenAI’s large language model scaling challenges, high traffic from over one billion monthly active users, and routine infrastructure demands, even as the status page reports strong aggregate uptime above 99.8%. Traders view this pattern of brief but countable disruptions—common in high-scale AI platforms—as the main driver pushing 4+ outage days to 51.5% implied probability, ahead of 3 days at 26.0%. With two weeks left in the month and ongoing model updates like recent GPT-5.x retirements, the market consensus reflects expectations of continued volatility rather than flawless reliability.
This market will resolve to the number of calendar days on which OpenAI's ChatGPT experiences any incident classified as 'Partial/Full Outage' as of the time it is marked as “Resolved” during the specified month (ET).
Only incidents listing ChatGPT under 'Affected components' will be considered. Incidents labeled as affecting 'APIs,' or 'Sora,' but not ChatGPT, will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
Classifications of an incident while it is ongoing will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. Only classifications of events that are resolved will be considered.
Qualifying incidents include outages and other issues classified as 'Partial/Full Outage' when they are resolved, during this market's above-specified timeframe.
Revisions that upgrade an incident’s impact classification to 'Partial/Full Outage' will qualify if the incident was resolved and the revision is published within this market’s timeframe.
This market will resolve at 12:00 PM ET on the day following the specified timeframe, provided no incident that began during the specified timeframe is ongoing, and all relevant data has been released. If either condition is not met, the market will remain open until the incident is marked as “Resolved” and all relevant data has been released. If all relevant data has not been released by the end of the seventh day after the specified timeframe, this market will resolve based on the data available at that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official system status information published by OpenAI on status.openai.com; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Only incidents listing ChatGPT under 'Affected components' will be considered. Incidents labeled as affecting 'APIs,' or 'Sora,' but not ChatGPT, will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
Classifications of an incident while it is ongoing will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. Only classifications of events that are resolved will be considered.
Qualifying incidents include outages and other issues classified as 'Partial/Full Outage' when they are resolved, during this market's above-specified timeframe.
Revisions that upgrade an incident’s impact classification to 'Partial/Full Outage' will qualify if the incident was resolved and the revision is published within this market’s timeframe.
This market will resolve at 12:00 PM ET on the day following the specified timeframe, provided no incident that began during the specified timeframe is ongoing, and all relevant data has been released. If either condition is not met, the market will remain open until the incident is marked as “Resolved” and all relevant data has been released. If all relevant data has not been released by the end of the seventh day after the specified timeframe, this market will resolve based on the data available at that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official system status information published by OpenAI on status.openai.com; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
マーケット開始日： May 26, 2026, 6:35 PM ET
音量
$10,307終了日
2026/06/30マーケット開始日
May 26, 2026, 6:35 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the number of calendar days on which OpenAI's ChatGPT experiences any incident classified as 'Partial/Full Outage' as of the time it is marked as “Resolved” during the specified month (ET).
Only incidents listing ChatGPT under 'Affected components' will be considered. Incidents labeled as affecting 'APIs,' or 'Sora,' but not ChatGPT, will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
Classifications of an incident while it is ongoing will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. Only classifications of events that are resolved will be considered.
Qualifying incidents include outages and other issues classified as 'Partial/Full Outage' when they are resolved, during this market's above-specified timeframe.
Revisions that upgrade an incident’s impact classification to 'Partial/Full Outage' will qualify if the incident was resolved and the revision is published within this market’s timeframe.
This market will resolve at 12:00 PM ET on the day following the specified timeframe, provided no incident that began during the specified timeframe is ongoing, and all relevant data has been released. If either condition is not met, the market will remain open until the incident is marked as “Resolved” and all relevant data has been released. If all relevant data has not been released by the end of the seventh day after the specified timeframe, this market will resolve based on the data available at that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official system status information published by OpenAI on status.openai.com; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Multiple partial outages affecting ChatGPT and related services have already occurred in early-to-mid June 2026, including documented incidents on June 1–3, 8, 11, and 12 that impacted free, Go, and other users with elevated errors or availability issues. These align with OpenAI’s large language model scaling challenges, high traffic from over one billion monthly active users, and routine infrastructure demands, even as the status page reports strong aggregate uptime above 99.8%. Traders view this pattern of brief but countable disruptions—common in high-scale AI platforms—as the main driver pushing 4+ outage days to 51.5% implied probability, ahead of 3 days at 26.0%. With two weeks left in the month and ongoing model updates like recent GPT-5.x retirements, the market consensus reflects expectations of continued volatility rather than flawless reliability.
This market will resolve to the number of calendar days on which OpenAI's ChatGPT experiences any incident classified as 'Partial/Full Outage' as of the time it is marked as “Resolved” during the specified month (ET).
Only incidents listing ChatGPT under 'Affected components' will be considered. Incidents labeled as affecting 'APIs,' or 'Sora,' but not ChatGPT, will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
Classifications of an incident while it is ongoing will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. Only classifications of events that are resolved will be considered.
Qualifying incidents include outages and other issues classified as 'Partial/Full Outage' when they are resolved, during this market's above-specified timeframe.
Revisions that upgrade an incident’s impact classification to 'Partial/Full Outage' will qualify if the incident was resolved and the revision is published within this market’s timeframe.
This market will resolve at 12:00 PM ET on the day following the specified timeframe, provided no incident that began during the specified timeframe is ongoing, and all relevant data has been released. If either condition is not met, the market will remain open until the incident is marked as “Resolved” and all relevant data has been released. If all relevant data has not been released by the end of the seventh day after the specified timeframe, this market will resolve based on the data available at that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official system status information published by OpenAI on status.openai.com; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Only incidents listing ChatGPT under 'Affected components' will be considered. Incidents labeled as affecting 'APIs,' or 'Sora,' but not ChatGPT, will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
Classifications of an incident while it is ongoing will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. Only classifications of events that are resolved will be considered.
Qualifying incidents include outages and other issues classified as 'Partial/Full Outage' when they are resolved, during this market's above-specified timeframe.
Revisions that upgrade an incident’s impact classification to 'Partial/Full Outage' will qualify if the incident was resolved and the revision is published within this market’s timeframe.
This market will resolve at 12:00 PM ET on the day following the specified timeframe, provided no incident that began during the specified timeframe is ongoing, and all relevant data has been released. If either condition is not met, the market will remain open until the incident is marked as “Resolved” and all relevant data has been released. If all relevant data has not been released by the end of the seventh day after the specified timeframe, this market will resolve based on the data available at that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official system status information published by OpenAI on status.openai.com; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
音量
$10,307終了日
2026/06/30マーケット開始日
May 26, 2026, 6:35 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Multiple partial outages affecting ChatGPT and related services have already occurred in early-to-mid June 2026, including documented incidents on June 1–3, 8, 11, and 12 that impacted free, Go, and other users with elevated errors or availability issues. These align with OpenAI’s large language model scaling challenges, high traffic from over one billion monthly active users, and routine infrastructure demands, even as the status page reports strong aggregate uptime above 99.8%. Traders view this pattern of brief but countable disruptions—common in high-scale AI platforms—as the main driver pushing 4+ outage days to 51.5% implied probability, ahead of 3 days at 26.0%. With two weeks left in the month and ongoing model updates like recent GPT-5.x retirements, the market consensus reflects expectations of continued volatility rather than flawless reliability.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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