Incumbent Marcy Kaptur holds a strong position in the Ohio 9th district race against Republican Derek Merrin, with traders assigning the Democratic nominee a 71.5% implied probability. Kaptur's decades of service and name recognition provide an incumbency edge, even after mid-decade redistricting shifted the district toward Republicans, as evidenced by Donald Trump's double-digit margin there in 2024 under the new lines. Merrin, who narrowly lost to Kaptur in 2024, secured the GOP nomination in the May primary but faces a contest rated as a toss-up or lean Democratic by most forecasters. Limited recent polling and the absence of major new developments since the primaries have kept trader focus on Kaptur's proven ability to hold the seat in this battleground.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$27,431 Vol.
$27,431 Vol.
2026/11/04
民主党
74%
共和党
27%
$27,431 Vol.
$27,431 Vol.
2026/11/04
民主党
$3,383 Vol.
74%
共和党
$24,048 Vol.
27%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OH-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Marcy Kaptur holds a strong position in the Ohio 9th district race against Republican Derek Merrin, with traders assigning the Democratic nominee a 71.5% implied probability. Kaptur's decades of service and name recognition provide an incumbency edge, even after mid-decade redistricting shifted the district toward Republicans, as evidenced by Donald Trump's double-digit margin there in 2024 under the new lines. Merrin, who narrowly lost to Kaptur in 2024, secured the GOP nomination in the May primary but faces a contest rated as a toss-up or lean Democratic by most forecasters. Limited recent polling and the absence of major new developments since the primaries have kept trader focus on Kaptur's proven ability to hold the seat in this battleground.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OH-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Dec 16, 2025, 12:48 PM ET
音量
$27,431終了日
2026/11/04マーケット開始日
Dec 16, 2025, 12:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OH-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Marcy Kaptur holds a strong position in the Ohio 9th district race against Republican Derek Merrin, with traders assigning the Democratic nominee a 71.5% implied probability. Kaptur's decades of service and name recognition provide an incumbency edge, even after mid-decade redistricting shifted the district toward Republicans, as evidenced by Donald Trump's double-digit margin there in 2024 under the new lines. Merrin, who narrowly lost to Kaptur in 2024, secured the GOP nomination in the May primary but faces a contest rated as a toss-up or lean Democratic by most forecasters. Limited recent polling and the absence of major new developments since the primaries have kept trader focus on Kaptur's proven ability to hold the seat in this battleground.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OH-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$27,431終了日
2026/11/04マーケット開始日
Dec 16, 2025, 12:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Marcy Kaptur holds a strong position in the Ohio 9th district race against Republican Derek Merrin, with traders assigning the Democratic nominee a 71.5% implied probability. Kaptur's decades of service and name recognition provide an incumbency edge, even after mid-decade redistricting shifted the district toward Republicans, as evidenced by Donald Trump's double-digit margin there in 2024 under the new lines. Merrin, who narrowly lost to Kaptur in 2024, secured the GOP nomination in the May primary but faces a contest rated as a toss-up or lean Democratic by most forecasters. Limited recent polling and the absence of major new developments since the primaries have kept trader focus on Kaptur's proven ability to hold the seat in this battleground.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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