Incumbent Summer Lee’s strong position in Pennsylvania’s 12th congressional district stems primarily from its D+10 Partisan Voter Index and consistent Democratic performance in recent presidential and statewide races. Forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic, reflecting the district’s partisan makeup and Lee’s primary victory in May 2026. The Republican nominee, James Hayes, faces structural headwinds in a district where Democratic candidates have maintained comfortable margins. Trader consensus around 94-96% for the Democratic outcome aligns with these fundamentals and historical base rates for incumbents in similar seats. Late developments such as major scandals, significant national political shifts, or unusually high Republican turnout could narrow the gap, though no such factors have emerged in the current cycle.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$16,370 Vol.
$16,370 Vol.
2026/11/02
民主党
95%
共和党
4%
$16,370 Vol.
$16,370 Vol.
2026/11/02
民主党
$11,679 Vol.
95%
共和党
$4,691 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Summer Lee’s strong position in Pennsylvania’s 12th congressional district stems primarily from its D+10 Partisan Voter Index and consistent Democratic performance in recent presidential and statewide races. Forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic, reflecting the district’s partisan makeup and Lee’s primary victory in May 2026. The Republican nominee, James Hayes, faces structural headwinds in a district where Democratic candidates have maintained comfortable margins. Trader consensus around 94-96% for the Democratic outcome aligns with these fundamentals and historical base rates for incumbents in similar seats. Late developments such as major scandals, significant national political shifts, or unusually high Republican turnout could narrow the gap, though no such factors have emerged in the current cycle.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
音量
$16,370終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Summer Lee’s strong position in Pennsylvania’s 12th congressional district stems primarily from its D+10 Partisan Voter Index and consistent Democratic performance in recent presidential and statewide races. Forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic, reflecting the district’s partisan makeup and Lee’s primary victory in May 2026. The Republican nominee, James Hayes, faces structural headwinds in a district where Democratic candidates have maintained comfortable margins. Trader consensus around 94-96% for the Democratic outcome aligns with these fundamentals and historical base rates for incumbents in similar seats. Late developments such as major scandals, significant national political shifts, or unusually high Republican turnout could narrow the gap, though no such factors have emerged in the current cycle.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$16,370終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Summer Lee’s strong position in Pennsylvania’s 12th congressional district stems primarily from its D+10 Partisan Voter Index and consistent Democratic performance in recent presidential and statewide races. Forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic, reflecting the district’s partisan makeup and Lee’s primary victory in May 2026. The Republican nominee, James Hayes, faces structural headwinds in a district where Democratic candidates have maintained comfortable margins. Trader consensus around 94-96% for the Democratic outcome aligns with these fundamentals and historical base rates for incumbents in similar seats. Late developments such as major scandals, significant national political shifts, or unusually high Republican turnout could narrow the gap, though no such factors have emerged in the current cycle.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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