Recent polls place the BNG vote share near 0.9 percent, translating into consistent projections of two seats across Galicia’s four provinces under the D’Hondt system. This outcome reflects the party’s established regional base, focused campaigning on rail upgrades, AP-9 transfers, and Galician autonomy within the Cortes, plus experienced candidates such as Néstor Rego and Olalla Rodil. The snap election scheduled for 29 November has not altered these fundamentals, as national shifts after the Urda incident have primarily affected larger parties while leaving BNG support steady. Traders therefore assign the highest implied probability to exactly two seats, with modest upside priced for any late regional consolidation and downside limited by the party’s structural floor in its core constituencies.