Iran’s government has repeatedly deployed nationwide internet disruptions as a tool for managing information during protests and conflict, most recently imposing a near-total blackout from January 8 through late May 2026 that lasted 88 days amid anti-government demonstrations and the February 28 onset of hostilities with the United States and Israel. Partial restoration began in late May under President Masoud Pezeshkian, returning connectivity to roughly 40 percent of prior levels with a whitelist system, throttled speeds, and persistent blocks on major platforms and VPNs. As of September 2026, traffic remains below pre-shutdown norms, new filtering rules and surveillance measures were introduced in July, and authorities continue refining a tiered “national information network” architecture. Traders assess future total blackouts—defined by sustained sub-1 percent traffic levels—against risks of renewed unrest, diplomatic or military escalation, and the regime’s preference for controlled access over complete isolation, balanced against documented economic costs of prolonged outages.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$248,505 Vol.
9月30日
2%
12月31日
23%
$248,505 Vol.
9月30日
2%
12月31日
23%
For the purposes of this market, a “total internet blackout” occurring means that, according to Cloudflare Radar data for Iran, total bytes transferred have fallen to 1.0% or less of the last 4 weeks’ Max for at least six consecutive hourly data points, as shown in the Traffic trends → Bytes transferred (Total bytes) chart for the last 4 weeks (https://radar.cloudflare.com/traffic/ir?dateRange=28d).
The relevant figures for each hourly data point are listed in this chart as “__% of Max”. The Max for each data point will be the Max figure used in the chart by Cloudflare.
Only the first of the relevant consecutive hourly data points must fall before this market’s resolution time. If required, to confirm the full sequence, the market will remain open until both relevant data points are observed.
The primary resolution source for this market will be Cloudflare Radar data for Iran, specifically the Iran Traffic trends chart for the last 4 weeks found at https://radar.cloudflare.com/traffic/ir?dateRange=28d. If this resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
マーケット開始日: Aug 7, 2026, 10:29 AM ET
リゾルバー
0x65070BE91...For the purposes of this market, a “total internet blackout” occurring means that, according to Cloudflare Radar data for Iran, total bytes transferred have fallen to 1.0% or less of the last 4 weeks’ Max for at least six consecutive hourly data points, as shown in the Traffic trends → Bytes transferred (Total bytes) chart for the last 4 weeks (https://radar.cloudflare.com/traffic/ir?dateRange=28d).
The relevant figures for each hourly data point are listed in this chart as “__% of Max”. The Max for each data point will be the Max figure used in the chart by Cloudflare.
Only the first of the relevant consecutive hourly data points must fall before this market’s resolution time. If required, to confirm the full sequence, the market will remain open until both relevant data points are observed.
The primary resolution source for this market will be Cloudflare Radar data for Iran, specifically the Iran Traffic trends chart for the last 4 weeks found at https://radar.cloudflare.com/traffic/ir?dateRange=28d. If this resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
リゾルバー
0x65070BE91...Iran’s government has repeatedly deployed nationwide internet disruptions as a tool for managing information during protests and conflict, most recently imposing a near-total blackout from January 8 through late May 2026 that lasted 88 days amid anti-government demonstrations and the February 28 onset of hostilities with the United States and Israel. Partial restoration began in late May under President Masoud Pezeshkian, returning connectivity to roughly 40 percent of prior levels with a whitelist system, throttled speeds, and persistent blocks on major platforms and VPNs. As of September 2026, traffic remains below pre-shutdown norms, new filtering rules and surveillance measures were introduced in July, and authorities continue refining a tiered “national information network” architecture. Traders assess future total blackouts—defined by sustained sub-1 percent traffic levels—against risks of renewed unrest, diplomatic or military escalation, and the regime’s preference for controlled access over complete isolation, balanced against documented economic costs of prolonged outages.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日



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