Persistent territorial disputes and stalled diplomatic momentum drive the near-certain trader view that Ukraine will not sign a peace agreement with Russia by October 31. Recent US-mediated visits by envoys to Moscow and Kyiv in early September produced no breakthroughs, with the Kremlin stating on September 21 that no progress has occurred in negotiations since trilateral meetings ended in February. Russia continues to demand recognition of occupied areas and Ukrainian withdrawals, positions Ukraine rejects while insisting on sovereignty protections and security guarantees. Ongoing airstrikes and winter escalation risks further reduce the window for a comprehensive deal. Even if proposed October trilateral talks advance under US involvement, the timeline and unresolved core issues make a signed agreement by the deadline improbable, though a surprise high-level accord or ceasefire announcement could still shift odds.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
2% 確率
$12,474 Vol.
$12,474 Vol.
2026/10/31
はい
2% 確率
$12,474 Vol.
$12,474 Vol.
2026/10/31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Persistent territorial disputes and stalled diplomatic momentum drive the near-certain trader view that Ukraine will not sign a peace agreement with Russia by October 31. Recent US-mediated visits by envoys to Moscow and Kyiv in early September produced no breakthroughs, with the Kremlin stating on September 21 that no progress has occurred in negotiations since trilateral meetings ended in February. Russia continues to demand recognition of occupied areas and Ukrainian withdrawals, positions Ukraine rejects while insisting on sovereignty protections and security guarantees. Ongoing airstrikes and winter escalation risks further reduce the window for a comprehensive deal. Even if proposed October trilateral talks advance under US involvement, the timeline and unresolved core issues make a signed agreement by the deadline improbable, though a surprise high-level accord or ceasefire announcement could still shift odds.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： Aug 26, 2026, 5:43 PM ET
音量
$12,474終了日
2026/11/01マーケット開始日
Aug 26, 2026, 5:43 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Persistent territorial disputes and stalled diplomatic momentum drive the near-certain trader view that Ukraine will not sign a peace agreement with Russia by October 31. Recent US-mediated visits by envoys to Moscow and Kyiv in early September produced no breakthroughs, with the Kremlin stating on September 21 that no progress has occurred in negotiations since trilateral meetings ended in February. Russia continues to demand recognition of occupied areas and Ukrainian withdrawals, positions Ukraine rejects while insisting on sovereignty protections and security guarantees. Ongoing airstrikes and winter escalation risks further reduce the window for a comprehensive deal. Even if proposed October trilateral talks advance under US involvement, the timeline and unresolved core issues make a signed agreement by the deadline improbable, though a surprise high-level accord or ceasefire announcement could still shift odds.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$12,474終了日
2026/11/01マーケット開始日
Aug 26, 2026, 5:43 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...Persistent territorial disputes and stalled diplomatic momentum drive the near-certain trader view that Ukraine will not sign a peace agreement with Russia by October 31. Recent US-mediated visits by envoys to Moscow and Kyiv in early September produced no breakthroughs, with the Kremlin stating on September 21 that no progress has occurred in negotiations since trilateral meetings ended in February. Russia continues to demand recognition of occupied areas and Ukrainian withdrawals, positions Ukraine rejects while insisting on sovereignty protections and security guarantees. Ongoing airstrikes and winter escalation risks further reduce the window for a comprehensive deal. Even if proposed October trilateral talks advance under US involvement, the timeline and unresolved core issues make a signed agreement by the deadline improbable, though a surprise high-level accord or ceasefire announcement could still shift odds.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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