The strong trader consensus against US military draft authorization in 2026 stems primarily from the absence of congressional legislation amending the Military Selective Service Act to permit induction, despite the Fiscal Year 2026 National Defense Authorization Act's focus on automating Selective Service registration by December. The all-volunteer force continues to meet operational needs without conscription, reflecting decades of policy precedent since 1973 and sustained recruitment efforts amid ongoing geopolitical tensions. Bipartisan resistance to reinstating compulsory service, combined with no declared national emergency triggering such measures, reinforces market pricing. Realistic shifts could arise from severe manpower shortfalls in major conflicts, such as escalated engagements requiring rapid force expansion, or sudden legislative action in response to unforeseen crises before year-end.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
5% 確率
$521,268 Vol.
$521,268 Vol.
2026/12/31
はい
5% 確率
$521,268 Vol.
$521,268 Vol.
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any legislation is passed by both houses of the United States Congress and signed into law by the president, or otherwise enacted, which authorizes the induction of personnel into the United States Armed Forces through activation of the United States Selective Service System, or otherwise establishes a military draft, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The strong trader consensus against US military draft authorization in 2026 stems primarily from the absence of congressional legislation amending the Military Selective Service Act to permit induction, despite the Fiscal Year 2026 National Defense Authorization Act's focus on automating Selective Service registration by December. The all-volunteer force continues to meet operational needs without conscription, reflecting decades of policy precedent since 1973 and sustained recruitment efforts amid ongoing geopolitical tensions. Bipartisan resistance to reinstating compulsory service, combined with no declared national emergency triggering such measures, reinforces market pricing. Realistic shifts could arise from severe manpower shortfalls in major conflicts, such as escalated engagements requiring rapid force expansion, or sudden legislative action in response to unforeseen crises before year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any legislation is passed by both houses of the United States Congress and signed into law by the president, or otherwise enacted, which authorizes the induction of personnel into the United States Armed Forces through activation of the United States Selective Service System, or otherwise establishes a military draft, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
マーケット開始日： Mar 13, 2026, 1:23 PM ET
音量
$521,268終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Mar 13, 2026, 1:23 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any legislation is passed by both houses of the United States Congress and signed into law by the president, or otherwise enacted, which authorizes the induction of personnel into the United States Armed Forces through activation of the United States Selective Service System, or otherwise establishes a military draft, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The strong trader consensus against US military draft authorization in 2026 stems primarily from the absence of congressional legislation amending the Military Selective Service Act to permit induction, despite the Fiscal Year 2026 National Defense Authorization Act's focus on automating Selective Service registration by December. The all-volunteer force continues to meet operational needs without conscription, reflecting decades of policy precedent since 1973 and sustained recruitment efforts amid ongoing geopolitical tensions. Bipartisan resistance to reinstating compulsory service, combined with no declared national emergency triggering such measures, reinforces market pricing. Realistic shifts could arise from severe manpower shortfalls in major conflicts, such as escalated engagements requiring rapid force expansion, or sudden legislative action in response to unforeseen crises before year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any legislation is passed by both houses of the United States Congress and signed into law by the president, or otherwise enacted, which authorizes the induction of personnel into the United States Armed Forces through activation of the United States Selective Service System, or otherwise establishes a military draft, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
音量
$521,268終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Mar 13, 2026, 1:23 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The strong trader consensus against US military draft authorization in 2026 stems primarily from the absence of congressional legislation amending the Military Selective Service Act to permit induction, despite the Fiscal Year 2026 National Defense Authorization Act's focus on automating Selective Service registration by December. The all-volunteer force continues to meet operational needs without conscription, reflecting decades of policy precedent since 1973 and sustained recruitment efforts amid ongoing geopolitical tensions. Bipartisan resistance to reinstating compulsory service, combined with no declared national emergency triggering such measures, reinforces market pricing. Realistic shifts could arise from severe manpower shortfalls in major conflicts, such as escalated engagements requiring rapid force expansion, or sudden legislative action in response to unforeseen crises before year-end.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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