Traders see Anthropic as the clear leader with a 90.5% implied probability of fielding the best large language model by the end of May, primarily because its latest Claude release has delivered measurable gains on established benchmarks for reasoning, coding, and multi-step problem solving. These results have held up in independent evaluations, giving the model a decisive edge over rivals in the current competitive set. Google sits at 7.5% on the strength of iterative Gemini improvements, while OpenAI at 1.1% reflects market caution around its next major update. With only weeks left before resolution, any credible new benchmark data or surprise capability demonstration from competitors could still introduce volatility, though the scale of Anthropic’s current lead would require substantial gains to alter the consensus.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日アンソロピック 90%
グーグル 8%
OpenAI 1.1%
バイトダンス <1%
$9,001,299 Vol.
$9,001,299 Vol.
2026/05/31
アンソロピック
90%
グーグル
8%
OpenAI
1%
バイトダンス
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
Meta
<1%
xAI
<1%
アリババ
<1%
ムーンショット
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
バイドゥ
<1%
アマゾン
<1%
Mistral
<1%
美団
<1%
マイクロソフト
<1%
アンソロピック 90%
グーグル 8%
OpenAI 1.1%
バイトダンス <1%
$9,001,299 Vol.
$9,001,299 Vol.
2026/05/31
アンソロピック
$675,341 Vol.
90%
グーグル
$621,235 Vol.
8%
OpenAI
$766,811 Vol.
1%
バイトダンス
$558,510 Vol.
<1%
Z.ai
$527,459 Vol.
<1%
Meta
$588,837 Vol.
<1%
xAI
$671,949 Vol.
<1%
アリババ
$518,378 Vol.
<1%
ムーンショット
$562,995 Vol.
<1%
DeepSeek
$478,923 Vol.
<1%
バイドゥ
$470,637 Vol.
<1%
アマゾン
$406,756 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$1,423,820 Vol.
<1%
美団
$311,909 Vol.
<1%
マイクロソフト
$418,351 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on May 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Traders see Anthropic as the clear leader with a 90.5% implied probability of fielding the best large language model by the end of May, primarily because its latest Claude release has delivered measurable gains on established benchmarks for reasoning, coding, and multi-step problem solving. These results have held up in independent evaluations, giving the model a decisive edge over rivals in the current competitive set. Google sits at 7.5% on the strength of iterative Gemini improvements, while OpenAI at 1.1% reflects market caution around its next major update. With only weeks left before resolution, any credible new benchmark data or surprise capability demonstration from competitors could still introduce volatility, though the scale of Anthropic’s current lead would require substantial gains to alter the consensus.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on May 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
マーケット開始日： Apr 14, 2026, 5:17 PM ET
音量
$9,001,299終了日
2026/05/31マーケット開始日
Apr 14, 2026, 5:17 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on May 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Traders see Anthropic as the clear leader with a 90.5% implied probability of fielding the best large language model by the end of May, primarily because its latest Claude release has delivered measurable gains on established benchmarks for reasoning, coding, and multi-step problem solving. These results have held up in independent evaluations, giving the model a decisive edge over rivals in the current competitive set. Google sits at 7.5% on the strength of iterative Gemini improvements, while OpenAI at 1.1% reflects market caution around its next major update. With only weeks left before resolution, any credible new benchmark data or surprise capability demonstration from competitors could still introduce volatility, though the scale of Anthropic’s current lead would require substantial gains to alter the consensus.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on May 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
音量
$9,001,299終了日
2026/05/31マーケット開始日
Apr 14, 2026, 5:17 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders see Anthropic as the clear leader with a 90.5% implied probability of fielding the best large language model by the end of May, primarily because its latest Claude release has delivered measurable gains on established benchmarks for reasoning, coding, and multi-step problem solving. These results have held up in independent evaluations, giving the model a decisive edge over rivals in the current competitive set. Google sits at 7.5% on the strength of iterative Gemini improvements, while OpenAI at 1.1% reflects market caution around its next major update. With only weeks left before resolution, any credible new benchmark data or surprise capability demonstration from competitors could still introduce volatility, though the scale of Anthropic’s current lead would require substantial gains to alter the consensus.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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