**Trader consensus on no new Abraham Accords signatory by October 31 reflects stalled normalization talks, particularly with Saudi Arabia.** Riyadh has repeatedly conditioned formal ties on an irreversible pathway to Palestinian statehood—a demand unmet by Israel’s current government. Recent U.S. efforts to advance a Saudi civilian nuclear cooperation agreement, including its presentation to Congress in late August 2026, explicitly tie approval to Accords accession, yet Saudi officials maintain their longstanding position without signs of near-term movement. Kazakhstan’s 2025 accession remains the most recent addition, while potential candidates such as Syria and others show only preliminary dialogue without imminent resolution. The compressed timeline through October and absence of verified breakthroughs in bilateral or multilateral negotiations underpin the 93.5% implied probability for “No.”
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
8% 確率
新規
新規
2026/10/31
はい
8% 確率
新規
新規
2026/10/31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any country not already a part of the Abraham Accords formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation. Such a signing will qualify regardless of whether a country had an established diplomatic relationship with Israel predating this event; their becoming a signatory of the Abraham Accords qualifies as normalizing relations under the framework of that agreement.
For the purposes of this market, Somaliland will count as a country.
Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of market creation—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count.
The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.**Trader consensus on no new Abraham Accords signatory by October 31 reflects stalled normalization talks, particularly with Saudi Arabia.** Riyadh has repeatedly conditioned formal ties on an irreversible pathway to Palestinian statehood—a demand unmet by Israel’s current government. Recent U.S. efforts to advance a Saudi civilian nuclear cooperation agreement, including its presentation to Congress in late August 2026, explicitly tie approval to Accords accession, yet Saudi officials maintain their longstanding position without signs of near-term movement. Kazakhstan’s 2025 accession remains the most recent addition, while potential candidates such as Syria and others show only preliminary dialogue without imminent resolution. The compressed timeline through October and absence of verified breakthroughs in bilateral or multilateral negotiations underpin the 93.5% implied probability for “No.”
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any country not already a part of the Abraham Accords formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation. Such a signing will qualify regardless of whether a country had an established diplomatic relationship with Israel predating this event; their becoming a signatory of the Abraham Accords qualifies as normalizing relations under the framework of that agreement.
For the purposes of this market, Somaliland will count as a country.
Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of market creation—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count.
The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.
A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation. Such a signing will qualify regardless of whether a country had an established diplomatic relationship with Israel predating this event; their becoming a signatory of the Abraham Accords qualifies as normalizing relations under the framework of that agreement.
For the purposes of this market, Somaliland will count as a country.
Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of market creation—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count.
The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.
マーケット開始日： Aug 26, 2026, 5:42 PM ET
音量
$794終了日
2026/11/01マーケット開始日
Aug 26, 2026, 5:42 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if any country not already a part of the Abraham Accords formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation. Such a signing will qualify regardless of whether a country had an established diplomatic relationship with Israel predating this event; their becoming a signatory of the Abraham Accords qualifies as normalizing relations under the framework of that agreement.
For the purposes of this market, Somaliland will count as a country.
Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of market creation—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count.
The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.**Trader consensus on no new Abraham Accords signatory by October 31 reflects stalled normalization talks, particularly with Saudi Arabia.** Riyadh has repeatedly conditioned formal ties on an irreversible pathway to Palestinian statehood—a demand unmet by Israel’s current government. Recent U.S. efforts to advance a Saudi civilian nuclear cooperation agreement, including its presentation to Congress in late August 2026, explicitly tie approval to Accords accession, yet Saudi officials maintain their longstanding position without signs of near-term movement. Kazakhstan’s 2025 accession remains the most recent addition, while potential candidates such as Syria and others show only preliminary dialogue without imminent resolution. The compressed timeline through October and absence of verified breakthroughs in bilateral or multilateral negotiations underpin the 93.5% implied probability for “No.”
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any country not already a part of the Abraham Accords formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation. Such a signing will qualify regardless of whether a country had an established diplomatic relationship with Israel predating this event; their becoming a signatory of the Abraham Accords qualifies as normalizing relations under the framework of that agreement.
For the purposes of this market, Somaliland will count as a country.
Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of market creation—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count.
The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.
A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation. Such a signing will qualify regardless of whether a country had an established diplomatic relationship with Israel predating this event; their becoming a signatory of the Abraham Accords qualifies as normalizing relations under the framework of that agreement.
For the purposes of this market, Somaliland will count as a country.
Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of market creation—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count.
The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.
音量
$794終了日
2026/11/01マーケット開始日
Aug 26, 2026, 5:42 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...**Trader consensus on no new Abraham Accords signatory by October 31 reflects stalled normalization talks, particularly with Saudi Arabia.** Riyadh has repeatedly conditioned formal ties on an irreversible pathway to Palestinian statehood—a demand unmet by Israel’s current government. Recent U.S. efforts to advance a Saudi civilian nuclear cooperation agreement, including its presentation to Congress in late August 2026, explicitly tie approval to Accords accession, yet Saudi officials maintain their longstanding position without signs of near-term movement. Kazakhstan’s 2025 accession remains the most recent addition, while potential candidates such as Syria and others show only preliminary dialogue without imminent resolution. The compressed timeline through October and absence of verified breakthroughs in bilateral or multilateral negotiations underpin the 93.5% implied probability for “No.”
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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