Mojtaba Khamenei’s succession as Iran’s Supreme Leader following his father’s death in February 2026 strikes has occurred amid active regional conflict, with no verified public appearances or independent confirmation of his location since appointment. Regime statements attribute policy directives, military appointments, and meetings to him while citing security risks and recovery from reported injuries as reasons for seclusion, including unverified accounts of limited internal access or written communications only. Israeli-sourced claims of his absence from Iran have circulated but lack corroboration from neutral reporting, and earlier speculation about treatment abroad has been denied by Iranian officials. Trader consensus on departure markets reflects these barriers, with low implied probabilities tied to continuity of domestic control, the risks of travel during hostilities, and the absence of any confirmed exit or exile indicators through September 2026. Scheduled diplomatic or conflict-related developments could alter visibility but have not yet produced resolution triggers.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$117,848 Vol.
2026/10/31
10月31日
3%
12月31日
4%
$117,848 Vol.
10月31日
$119 Vol.
3%
12月31日
$816 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is confirmed that Mojtaba Khamenei was outside Iran at any point between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Both the presence outside Iran and its confirmation must occur between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. A presence outside Iran occurring prior to market creation will not qualify, regardless of when it is confirmed.
Mojtaba Khamenei need not depart Iran during the market window, nor remain outside Iran at the time of confirmation. If he was already outside Iran at market creation, his confirmed presence outside Iran during the window will qualify; likewise, a confirmed presence during the window will qualify even if he has since returned to Iran.
In cases where Mojtaba Khamenei may have exited Iranian airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than Iran for this market to resolve to "Yes". If Mojtaba Khamenei exits Iranian maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "Yes".
If no qualifying confirmation occurs by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Mojtaba Khamenei’s succession as Iran’s Supreme Leader following his father’s death in February 2026 strikes has occurred amid active regional conflict, with no verified public appearances or independent confirmation of his location since appointment. Regime statements attribute policy directives, military appointments, and meetings to him while citing security risks and recovery from reported injuries as reasons for seclusion, including unverified accounts of limited internal access or written communications only. Israeli-sourced claims of his absence from Iran have circulated but lack corroboration from neutral reporting, and earlier speculation about treatment abroad has been denied by Iranian officials. Trader consensus on departure markets reflects these barriers, with low implied probabilities tied to continuity of domestic control, the risks of travel during hostilities, and the absence of any confirmed exit or exile indicators through September 2026. Scheduled diplomatic or conflict-related developments could alter visibility but have not yet produced resolution triggers.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is confirmed that Mojtaba Khamenei was outside Iran at any point between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Both the presence outside Iran and its confirmation must occur between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. A presence outside Iran occurring prior to market creation will not qualify, regardless of when it is confirmed.
Mojtaba Khamenei need not depart Iran during the market window, nor remain outside Iran at the time of confirmation. If he was already outside Iran at market creation, his confirmed presence outside Iran during the window will qualify; likewise, a confirmed presence during the window will qualify even if he has since returned to Iran.
In cases where Mojtaba Khamenei may have exited Iranian airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than Iran for this market to resolve to "Yes". If Mojtaba Khamenei exits Iranian maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "Yes".
If no qualifying confirmation occurs by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Both the presence outside Iran and its confirmation must occur between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. A presence outside Iran occurring prior to market creation will not qualify, regardless of when it is confirmed.
Mojtaba Khamenei need not depart Iran during the market window, nor remain outside Iran at the time of confirmation. If he was already outside Iran at market creation, his confirmed presence outside Iran during the window will qualify; likewise, a confirmed presence during the window will qualify even if he has since returned to Iran.
In cases where Mojtaba Khamenei may have exited Iranian airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than Iran for this market to resolve to "Yes". If Mojtaba Khamenei exits Iranian maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "Yes".
If no qualifying confirmation occurs by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： Aug 18, 2026, 12:48 PM ET
音量
$117,848終了日
2027/01/01マーケット開始日
Aug 18, 2026, 12:48 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is confirmed that Mojtaba Khamenei was outside Iran at any point between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Both the presence outside Iran and its confirmation must occur between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. A presence outside Iran occurring prior to market creation will not qualify, regardless of when it is confirmed.
Mojtaba Khamenei need not depart Iran during the market window, nor remain outside Iran at the time of confirmation. If he was already outside Iran at market creation, his confirmed presence outside Iran during the window will qualify; likewise, a confirmed presence during the window will qualify even if he has since returned to Iran.
In cases where Mojtaba Khamenei may have exited Iranian airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than Iran for this market to resolve to "Yes". If Mojtaba Khamenei exits Iranian maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "Yes".
If no qualifying confirmation occurs by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Mojtaba Khamenei’s succession as Iran’s Supreme Leader following his father’s death in February 2026 strikes has occurred amid active regional conflict, with no verified public appearances or independent confirmation of his location since appointment. Regime statements attribute policy directives, military appointments, and meetings to him while citing security risks and recovery from reported injuries as reasons for seclusion, including unverified accounts of limited internal access or written communications only. Israeli-sourced claims of his absence from Iran have circulated but lack corroboration from neutral reporting, and earlier speculation about treatment abroad has been denied by Iranian officials. Trader consensus on departure markets reflects these barriers, with low implied probabilities tied to continuity of domestic control, the risks of travel during hostilities, and the absence of any confirmed exit or exile indicators through September 2026. Scheduled diplomatic or conflict-related developments could alter visibility but have not yet produced resolution triggers.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is confirmed that Mojtaba Khamenei was outside Iran at any point between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Both the presence outside Iran and its confirmation must occur between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. A presence outside Iran occurring prior to market creation will not qualify, regardless of when it is confirmed.
Mojtaba Khamenei need not depart Iran during the market window, nor remain outside Iran at the time of confirmation. If he was already outside Iran at market creation, his confirmed presence outside Iran during the window will qualify; likewise, a confirmed presence during the window will qualify even if he has since returned to Iran.
In cases where Mojtaba Khamenei may have exited Iranian airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than Iran for this market to resolve to "Yes". If Mojtaba Khamenei exits Iranian maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "Yes".
If no qualifying confirmation occurs by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Both the presence outside Iran and its confirmation must occur between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. A presence outside Iran occurring prior to market creation will not qualify, regardless of when it is confirmed.
Mojtaba Khamenei need not depart Iran during the market window, nor remain outside Iran at the time of confirmation. If he was already outside Iran at market creation, his confirmed presence outside Iran during the window will qualify; likewise, a confirmed presence during the window will qualify even if he has since returned to Iran.
In cases where Mojtaba Khamenei may have exited Iranian airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than Iran for this market to resolve to "Yes". If Mojtaba Khamenei exits Iranian maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "Yes".
If no qualifying confirmation occurs by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$117,848終了日
2027/01/01マーケット開始日
Aug 18, 2026, 12:48 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...Mojtaba Khamenei’s succession as Iran’s Supreme Leader following his father’s death in February 2026 strikes has occurred amid active regional conflict, with no verified public appearances or independent confirmation of his location since appointment. Regime statements attribute policy directives, military appointments, and meetings to him while citing security risks and recovery from reported injuries as reasons for seclusion, including unverified accounts of limited internal access or written communications only. Israeli-sourced claims of his absence from Iran have circulated but lack corroboration from neutral reporting, and earlier speculation about treatment abroad has been denied by Iranian officials. Trader consensus on departure markets reflects these barriers, with low implied probabilities tied to continuity of domestic control, the risks of travel during hostilities, and the absence of any confirmed exit or exile indicators through September 2026. Scheduled diplomatic or conflict-related developments could alter visibility but have not yet produced resolution triggers.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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