Anthropic’s established dominance with Mythos-class models on the arena.ai Text Arena leaderboard drives the 99.1% market-implied odds for the next release debuting at #1. The September 1, 2026 launch of Claude Mythos 5.1, positioned as an upgrade in cybersecurity, biology, and complex reasoning tasks over prior variants like Mythos 5, aligns with the company’s pattern of frontier models outranking competitors through superior chain-of-thought performance and benchmark results. Traders view the high capability floor of this tier—already reflected in current top Elo scores—as making a debut lead highly probable. Remaining uncertainty stems from potential delays in leaderboard integration, last-minute technical adjustments that could cap the initial score, or regulatory restrictions limiting full Arena availability.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
99% 確率
$11,039 Vol.
$11,039 Vol.
2027/06/30
はい
99% 確率
$11,039 Vol.
$11,039 Vol.
2027/06/30
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Anthropic Mythos-class model added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) has the highest arena rank when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which it first appears on the leaderboard. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any model whose official name includes "Mythos," or "Fable" (e.g., Claude Fable 5.1 or Claude Fable 6), or that Anthropic officially describes as a "Mythos-class" model or similar, will qualify for this market's resolution. Anthropic's other model tiers, such as Opus, Sonnet, or Haiku, will not qualify.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market. This market will resolve solely based on the specified rank in the Rank column of the leaderboard, regardless of any underlying granular or unrounded data presented elsewhere.
A model marked "AutoEval" will not be considered added to the leaderboard. Only ranks displayed without the "AutoEval" label will be considered.
If multiple qualifying models are added to the leaderboard on the same calendar date (ET), the highest-ranking model will be used for resolution. Models added to the leaderboard on the calendar date following the initial qualifying model's first appearance will not be considered. If a model is first added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard but is subsequently removed and not re-added, such that it is not displayed on the leaderboard at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following its first appearance, its appearance will not qualify as added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard.
A qualifying model must be newly added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard. Whether the model was previously released, publicly accessible, in beta, or otherwise available before appearing on the leaderboard is irrelevant for this market.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control. If this resolution source is unavailable at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which the qualifying model first appears on the leaderboard, this market will resolve based on the first subsequent instance at which such a score becomes available on the leaderboard. If it remains unavailable through the end of the seventh day after the qualifying model first appears on the leaderboard or if no qualifying model release occurs by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".Anthropic’s established dominance with Mythos-class models on the arena.ai Text Arena leaderboard drives the 99.1% market-implied odds for the next release debuting at #1. The September 1, 2026 launch of Claude Mythos 5.1, positioned as an upgrade in cybersecurity, biology, and complex reasoning tasks over prior variants like Mythos 5, aligns with the company’s pattern of frontier models outranking competitors through superior chain-of-thought performance and benchmark results. Traders view the high capability floor of this tier—already reflected in current top Elo scores—as making a debut lead highly probable. Remaining uncertainty stems from potential delays in leaderboard integration, last-minute technical adjustments that could cap the initial score, or regulatory restrictions limiting full Arena availability.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Anthropic Mythos-class model added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) has the highest arena rank when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which it first appears on the leaderboard. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any model whose official name includes "Mythos," or "Fable" (e.g., Claude Fable 5.1 or Claude Fable 6), or that Anthropic officially describes as a "Mythos-class" model or similar, will qualify for this market's resolution. Anthropic's other model tiers, such as Opus, Sonnet, or Haiku, will not qualify.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market. This market will resolve solely based on the specified rank in the Rank column of the leaderboard, regardless of any underlying granular or unrounded data presented elsewhere.
A model marked "AutoEval" will not be considered added to the leaderboard. Only ranks displayed without the "AutoEval" label will be considered.
If multiple qualifying models are added to the leaderboard on the same calendar date (ET), the highest-ranking model will be used for resolution. Models added to the leaderboard on the calendar date following the initial qualifying model's first appearance will not be considered. If a model is first added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard but is subsequently removed and not re-added, such that it is not displayed on the leaderboard at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following its first appearance, its appearance will not qualify as added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard.
A qualifying model must be newly added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard. Whether the model was previously released, publicly accessible, in beta, or otherwise available before appearing on the leaderboard is irrelevant for this market.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control. If this resolution source is unavailable at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which the qualifying model first appears on the leaderboard, this market will resolve based on the first subsequent instance at which such a score becomes available on the leaderboard. If it remains unavailable through the end of the seventh day after the qualifying model first appears on the leaderboard or if no qualifying model release occurs by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Any model whose official name includes "Mythos," or "Fable" (e.g., Claude Fable 5.1 or Claude Fable 6), or that Anthropic officially describes as a "Mythos-class" model or similar, will qualify for this market's resolution. Anthropic's other model tiers, such as Opus, Sonnet, or Haiku, will not qualify.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market. This market will resolve solely based on the specified rank in the Rank column of the leaderboard, regardless of any underlying granular or unrounded data presented elsewhere.
A model marked "AutoEval" will not be considered added to the leaderboard. Only ranks displayed without the "AutoEval" label will be considered.
If multiple qualifying models are added to the leaderboard on the same calendar date (ET), the highest-ranking model will be used for resolution. Models added to the leaderboard on the calendar date following the initial qualifying model's first appearance will not be considered. If a model is first added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard but is subsequently removed and not re-added, such that it is not displayed on the leaderboard at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following its first appearance, its appearance will not qualify as added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard.
A qualifying model must be newly added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard. Whether the model was previously released, publicly accessible, in beta, or otherwise available before appearing on the leaderboard is irrelevant for this market.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control. If this resolution source is unavailable at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which the qualifying model first appears on the leaderboard, this market will resolve based on the first subsequent instance at which such a score becomes available on the leaderboard. If it remains unavailable through the end of the seventh day after the qualifying model first appears on the leaderboard or if no qualifying model release occurs by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
マーケット開始日： Sep 1, 2026, 11:27 AM ET
音量
$11,039終了日
2027/06/30マーケット開始日
Sep 1, 2026, 11:27 AM ET提案された結果: はい
異議申し立てなし
最終結果: はい
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Anthropic Mythos-class model added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) has the highest arena rank when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which it first appears on the leaderboard. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any model whose official name includes "Mythos," or "Fable" (e.g., Claude Fable 5.1 or Claude Fable 6), or that Anthropic officially describes as a "Mythos-class" model or similar, will qualify for this market's resolution. Anthropic's other model tiers, such as Opus, Sonnet, or Haiku, will not qualify.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market. This market will resolve solely based on the specified rank in the Rank column of the leaderboard, regardless of any underlying granular or unrounded data presented elsewhere.
A model marked "AutoEval" will not be considered added to the leaderboard. Only ranks displayed without the "AutoEval" label will be considered.
If multiple qualifying models are added to the leaderboard on the same calendar date (ET), the highest-ranking model will be used for resolution. Models added to the leaderboard on the calendar date following the initial qualifying model's first appearance will not be considered. If a model is first added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard but is subsequently removed and not re-added, such that it is not displayed on the leaderboard at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following its first appearance, its appearance will not qualify as added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard.
A qualifying model must be newly added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard. Whether the model was previously released, publicly accessible, in beta, or otherwise available before appearing on the leaderboard is irrelevant for this market.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control. If this resolution source is unavailable at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which the qualifying model first appears on the leaderboard, this market will resolve based on the first subsequent instance at which such a score becomes available on the leaderboard. If it remains unavailable through the end of the seventh day after the qualifying model first appears on the leaderboard or if no qualifying model release occurs by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".Anthropic’s established dominance with Mythos-class models on the arena.ai Text Arena leaderboard drives the 99.1% market-implied odds for the next release debuting at #1. The September 1, 2026 launch of Claude Mythos 5.1, positioned as an upgrade in cybersecurity, biology, and complex reasoning tasks over prior variants like Mythos 5, aligns with the company’s pattern of frontier models outranking competitors through superior chain-of-thought performance and benchmark results. Traders view the high capability floor of this tier—already reflected in current top Elo scores—as making a debut lead highly probable. Remaining uncertainty stems from potential delays in leaderboard integration, last-minute technical adjustments that could cap the initial score, or regulatory restrictions limiting full Arena availability.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Anthropic Mythos-class model added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) has the highest arena rank when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which it first appears on the leaderboard. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any model whose official name includes "Mythos," or "Fable" (e.g., Claude Fable 5.1 or Claude Fable 6), or that Anthropic officially describes as a "Mythos-class" model or similar, will qualify for this market's resolution. Anthropic's other model tiers, such as Opus, Sonnet, or Haiku, will not qualify.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market. This market will resolve solely based on the specified rank in the Rank column of the leaderboard, regardless of any underlying granular or unrounded data presented elsewhere.
A model marked "AutoEval" will not be considered added to the leaderboard. Only ranks displayed without the "AutoEval" label will be considered.
If multiple qualifying models are added to the leaderboard on the same calendar date (ET), the highest-ranking model will be used for resolution. Models added to the leaderboard on the calendar date following the initial qualifying model's first appearance will not be considered. If a model is first added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard but is subsequently removed and not re-added, such that it is not displayed on the leaderboard at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following its first appearance, its appearance will not qualify as added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard.
A qualifying model must be newly added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard. Whether the model was previously released, publicly accessible, in beta, or otherwise available before appearing on the leaderboard is irrelevant for this market.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control. If this resolution source is unavailable at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which the qualifying model first appears on the leaderboard, this market will resolve based on the first subsequent instance at which such a score becomes available on the leaderboard. If it remains unavailable through the end of the seventh day after the qualifying model first appears on the leaderboard or if no qualifying model release occurs by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Any model whose official name includes "Mythos," or "Fable" (e.g., Claude Fable 5.1 or Claude Fable 6), or that Anthropic officially describes as a "Mythos-class" model or similar, will qualify for this market's resolution. Anthropic's other model tiers, such as Opus, Sonnet, or Haiku, will not qualify.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market. This market will resolve solely based on the specified rank in the Rank column of the leaderboard, regardless of any underlying granular or unrounded data presented elsewhere.
A model marked "AutoEval" will not be considered added to the leaderboard. Only ranks displayed without the "AutoEval" label will be considered.
If multiple qualifying models are added to the leaderboard on the same calendar date (ET), the highest-ranking model will be used for resolution. Models added to the leaderboard on the calendar date following the initial qualifying model's first appearance will not be considered. If a model is first added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard but is subsequently removed and not re-added, such that it is not displayed on the leaderboard at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following its first appearance, its appearance will not qualify as added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard.
A qualifying model must be newly added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard. Whether the model was previously released, publicly accessible, in beta, or otherwise available before appearing on the leaderboard is irrelevant for this market.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control. If this resolution source is unavailable at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which the qualifying model first appears on the leaderboard, this market will resolve based on the first subsequent instance at which such a score becomes available on the leaderboard. If it remains unavailable through the end of the seventh day after the qualifying model first appears on the leaderboard or if no qualifying model release occurs by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
音量
$11,039終了日
2027/06/30マーケット開始日
Sep 1, 2026, 11:27 AM ET提案された結果: はい
異議申し立てなし
最終結果: はい
Anthropic’s established dominance with Mythos-class models on the arena.ai Text Arena leaderboard drives the 99.1% market-implied odds for the next release debuting at #1. The September 1, 2026 launch of Claude Mythos 5.1, positioned as an upgrade in cybersecurity, biology, and complex reasoning tasks over prior variants like Mythos 5, aligns with the company’s pattern of frontier models outranking competitors through superior chain-of-thought performance and benchmark results. Traders view the high capability floor of this tier—already reflected in current top Elo scores—as making a debut lead highly probable. Remaining uncertainty stems from potential delays in leaderboard integration, last-minute technical adjustments that could cap the initial score, or regulatory restrictions limiting full Arena availability.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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外部リンクに注意してください。
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