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政治·議会

Will the Senate pass a reconciliation bill by...?

icon for Will the Senate pass a reconciliation bill by...?
政治·議会

Will the Senate pass a reconciliation bill by...?

$35,677 Vol.

2026/05/31
Polymarket

$35,677 Vol.

Polymarket

May 15

$5,110 Vol.

<1%

May 22

$23,518 Vol.

71%

May 31

$7,050 Vol.

85%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US Senate passes a reconciliation bill by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US Government. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Senate Republicans are advancing a $72 billion reconciliation bill to fund DHS, ICE, and CBP for FY2026, following the April 23 passage of S.Con.Res. 33 budget resolution by a 50-48 vote and House adoption, enabling simple-majority passage amid partial government shutdown pressures. Senate committees released the package on May 7, with leadership targeting enactment by early June. Critically, on May 15, the Senate parliamentarian rejected major provisions—including all CBP funding, unaccompanied migrant screenings, and $2.5 billion for DHS—under Byrd Rule violations, shifting them to require 60 votes and forcing iterative GOP rewrites. Narrow Republican majority demands caucus unity to overcome holdouts like Sens. Paul and Murkowski before floor vote.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US Senate passes a reconciliation bill by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US Government. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
音量
$35,677
終了日
2026/05/31
マーケット開始日
May 4, 2026, 7:48 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US Senate passes a reconciliation bill by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US Government. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US Senate passes a reconciliation bill by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US Government. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Senate Republicans are advancing a $72 billion reconciliation bill to fund DHS, ICE, and CBP for FY2026, following the April 23 passage of S.Con.Res. 33 budget resolution by a 50-48 vote and House adoption, enabling simple-majority passage amid partial government shutdown pressures. Senate committees released the package on May 7, with leadership targeting enactment by early June. Critically, on May 15, the Senate parliamentarian rejected major provisions—including all CBP funding, unaccompanied migrant screenings, and $2.5 billion for DHS—under Byrd Rule violations, shifting them to require 60 votes and forcing iterative GOP rewrites. Narrow Republican majority demands caucus unity to overcome holdouts like Sens. Paul and Murkowski before floor vote.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US Senate passes a reconciliation bill by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US Government. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
音量
$35,677
終了日
2026/05/31
マーケット開始日
May 4, 2026, 7:48 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US Senate passes a reconciliation bill by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US Government. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

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よくある質問

「Will the Senate pass a reconciliation bill by...?」はPolymarket上の3個の結果が可能な予測市場で、トレーダーが何が起こるかに基づいてシェアを売買します。現在のリード結果は「May 31」で85%、次いで「May 22」が71%です。価格はコミュニティのリアルタイム確率を反映しています。例えば、85¢で取引されているシェアは、市場がその結果に85%の確率を集合的に割り当てていることを意味します。これらのオッズは継続的に変化します。正しい結果のシェアは市場決済時に各$1で引き換え可能です。

本日現在、「Will the Senate pass a reconciliation bill by...?」は$35.7Kの総取引量を生み出しています（May 4, 2026のマーケット開始以来）。この取引活動レベルはPolymarketコミュニティの強い関与を反映し、現在のオッズが幅広い市場参加者によって形成されていることを保証します。このページで直接、ライブの価格変動を追跡し、任意の結果で取引できます。

「Will the Senate pass a reconciliation bill by...?」で取引するには、このページに記載されている3個の利用可能な結果を閲覧します。各結果には市場の暗示確率を表す現在の価格が表示されています。ポジションを取るには、最も可能性が高いと思う結果を選び、「はい」で支持するか「いいえ」で反対するかを選択し、金額を入力して「取引」をクリックします。選んだ結果が市場決済時に正しければ、「はい」のシェアは各$1を支払います。正しくなければ$0です。決済前にいつでもシェアを売却できます。

「Will the Senate pass a reconciliation bill by...?」の現在のフロントランナーは「May 31」で85%であり、市場がこの結果に85%の確率を割り当てていることを意味します。次に近い結果は「May 22」で71%です。これらのオッズはトレーダーがシェアを売買するにつれてリアルタイムで更新されます。頻繁に確認するか、このページをブックマークしてください。

「Will the Senate pass a reconciliation bill by...?」の決済ルールは、各結果が勝者と宣言されるために何が起こる必要があるかを正確に定義しています。これには結果を決定するために使用される公式データソースも含まれます。このページのコメント上にある「ルール」セクションで完全な決済基準を確認できます。取引前にルールを注意深く読むことをお勧めします。