California's 15th congressional district maintains a pronounced Democratic partisan lean that underpins the market's overwhelming consensus for a Democratic winner. Incumbent Representative Kevin Mullin secured reelection in 2024 with more than 73 percent of the vote and now faces a June 2 top-two primary against several Democratic challengers and limited Republican opposition. Race ratings from Cook Political Report and similar analysts classify the seat as solid or safe Democratic, consistent with voter registration patterns and historical results in the San Francisco Bay Area district. The slim Republican odds reflect the absence of competitive polling or major recent developments that would alter the trajectory ahead of the November 3 general election. A primary upset advancing a strong Republican or an unforeseen scandal involving the incumbent remain the primary factors that could narrow the gap.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트$114,280 거래량
$114,280 거래량
2026.11.03
민주당
95%
공화당
3%
$114,280 거래량
$114,280 거래량
2026.11.03
민주당
$92,550 거래량
95%
공화당
$21,729 거래량
3%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).California's 15th congressional district maintains a pronounced Democratic partisan lean that underpins the market's overwhelming consensus for a Democratic winner. Incumbent Representative Kevin Mullin secured reelection in 2024 with more than 73 percent of the vote and now faces a June 2 top-two primary against several Democratic challengers and limited Republican opposition. Race ratings from Cook Political Report and similar analysts classify the seat as solid or safe Democratic, consistent with voter registration patterns and historical results in the San Francisco Bay Area district. The slim Republican odds reflect the absence of competitive polling or major recent developments that would alter the trajectory ahead of the November 3 general election. A primary upset advancing a strong Republican or an unforeseen scandal involving the incumbent remain the primary factors that could narrow the gap.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
마켓 개설일: Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ET
거래량
$114,280종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).California's 15th congressional district maintains a pronounced Democratic partisan lean that underpins the market's overwhelming consensus for a Democratic winner. Incumbent Representative Kevin Mullin secured reelection in 2024 with more than 73 percent of the vote and now faces a June 2 top-two primary against several Democratic challengers and limited Republican opposition. Race ratings from Cook Political Report and similar analysts classify the seat as solid or safe Democratic, consistent with voter registration patterns and historical results in the San Francisco Bay Area district. The slim Republican odds reflect the absence of competitive polling or major recent developments that would alter the trajectory ahead of the November 3 general election. A primary upset advancing a strong Republican or an unforeseen scandal involving the incumbent remain the primary factors that could narrow the gap.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
거래량
$114,280종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...California's 15th congressional district maintains a pronounced Democratic partisan lean that underpins the market's overwhelming consensus for a Democratic winner. Incumbent Representative Kevin Mullin secured reelection in 2024 with more than 73 percent of the vote and now faces a June 2 top-two primary against several Democratic challengers and limited Republican opposition. Race ratings from Cook Political Report and similar analysts classify the seat as solid or safe Democratic, consistent with voter registration patterns and historical results in the San Francisco Bay Area district. The slim Republican odds reflect the absence of competitive polling or major recent developments that would alter the trajectory ahead of the November 3 general election. A primary upset advancing a strong Republican or an unforeseen scandal involving the incumbent remain the primary factors that could narrow the gap.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
외부 링크에 주의하세요.
외부 링크에 주의하세요.
자주 묻는 질문