Recent opinion polls place the Alternative for Germany at roughly 41 percent in Saxony-Anhalt ahead of the September 6 state election, giving the party a double-digit lead over the CDU and positioning it as the clear frontrunner for the largest share of seats in the 83-member Landtag. However, the current distribution of support among smaller parties, including the Left at around 12 percent and several others hovering near or below the five-percent threshold, produces seat projections that often fall just short of the 42 seats required for an absolute majority. Traders therefore price an outright majority at roughly 42 percent, reflecting the remaining uncertainty over whether enough minor parties will fail to enter parliament or whether late swings in turnout among centrist and left-leaning voters could further fragment the vote.