Incumbent Rep. Ted Lieu (D) dominates trader consensus at 93.5% implied probability to deliver a Democratic hold in California's 36th Congressional District, a coastal Los Angeles South Bay seat rated Solid Democratic by Cook Political Report and Safe Democratic by Sabato's Crystal Ball. The district's strong partisan lean—Kamala Harris won 68% in 2024—combined with Lieu's $1 million cash-on-hand advantage and history of blowout victories, including 69%-31% over Republican Melissa Toomim last cycle, underpin this positioning. With the June 2 top-two primary approaching, Lieu faces underfunded Democratic challengers and weak GOP contenders like Toomim. Recent visibility from Lieu's May 12 federal grant presentation to Torrance reinforces his incumbency edge. Upsets would require a major scandal, Lieu health issue, or unprecedented Republican turnout wave in this Democratic trifecta state.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트신규
신규
2026.11.03
Democratic Party
94%
Republican Party
6%
신규
신규
2026.11.03
Democratic Party
$5,296 거래량
94%
Republican Party
$4,386 거래량
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-36 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rep. Ted Lieu (D) dominates trader consensus at 93.5% implied probability to deliver a Democratic hold in California's 36th Congressional District, a coastal Los Angeles South Bay seat rated Solid Democratic by Cook Political Report and Safe Democratic by Sabato's Crystal Ball. The district's strong partisan lean—Kamala Harris won 68% in 2024—combined with Lieu's $1 million cash-on-hand advantage and history of blowout victories, including 69%-31% over Republican Melissa Toomim last cycle, underpin this positioning. With the June 2 top-two primary approaching, Lieu faces underfunded Democratic challengers and weak GOP contenders like Toomim. Recent visibility from Lieu's May 12 federal grant presentation to Torrance reinforces his incumbency edge. Upsets would require a major scandal, Lieu health issue, or unprecedented Republican turnout wave in this Democratic trifecta state.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-36 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
마켓 개설일: Jan 28, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
거래량
$9,683종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 28, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-36 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rep. Ted Lieu (D) dominates trader consensus at 93.5% implied probability to deliver a Democratic hold in California's 36th Congressional District, a coastal Los Angeles South Bay seat rated Solid Democratic by Cook Political Report and Safe Democratic by Sabato's Crystal Ball. The district's strong partisan lean—Kamala Harris won 68% in 2024—combined with Lieu's $1 million cash-on-hand advantage and history of blowout victories, including 69%-31% over Republican Melissa Toomim last cycle, underpin this positioning. With the June 2 top-two primary approaching, Lieu faces underfunded Democratic challengers and weak GOP contenders like Toomim. Recent visibility from Lieu's May 12 federal grant presentation to Torrance reinforces his incumbency edge. Upsets would require a major scandal, Lieu health issue, or unprecedented Republican turnout wave in this Democratic trifecta state.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-36 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
거래량
$9,683종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 28, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Rep. Ted Lieu (D) dominates trader consensus at 93.5% implied probability to deliver a Democratic hold in California's 36th Congressional District, a coastal Los Angeles South Bay seat rated Solid Democratic by Cook Political Report and Safe Democratic by Sabato's Crystal Ball. The district's strong partisan lean—Kamala Harris won 68% in 2024—combined with Lieu's $1 million cash-on-hand advantage and history of blowout victories, including 69%-31% over Republican Melissa Toomim last cycle, underpin this positioning. With the June 2 top-two primary approaching, Lieu faces underfunded Democratic challengers and weak GOP contenders like Toomim. Recent visibility from Lieu's May 12 federal grant presentation to Torrance reinforces his incumbency edge. Upsets would require a major scandal, Lieu health issue, or unprecedented Republican turnout wave in this Democratic trifecta state.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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