Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who receives the greatest number of valid votes in the first round of voting.
If the results of the first round of the Colombian presidential election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who receives the greatest number of valid votes in the first round of voting.
If the results of the first round of the Colombian presidential election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co). Iván Cepeda leads polls for Colombia’s May 31 first-round presidential vote by double-digit margins, reflecting his position as the Historic Pact candidate pledged to continue President Gustavo Petro’s agenda on peace talks, rural development, and progressive reforms. Recent surveys from Invamer and others place him at 35–44 percent, well ahead of far-right lawyer Abelardo de la Espriella and center-right Democratic Center senator Paloma Valencia, whose combined support remains split along conservative lines. Lower-polling centrist figures such as Claudia López and Sergio Fajardo show no signs of consolidation that could alter the top-two dynamic before election day. With the first-round winner determined by plurality rather than majority, Cepeda’s consistent advantage across national samples underpins trader consensus on his frontrunner status.
Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who receives the greatest number of valid votes in the first round of voting.
If the results of the first round of the Colombian presidential election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who receives the greatest number of valid votes in the first round of voting.
If the results of the first round of the Colombian presidential election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
Iván Cepeda leads polls for Colombia’s May 31 first-round presidential vote by double-digit margins, reflecting his position as the Historic Pact candidate pledged to continue President Gustavo Petro’s agenda on peace talks, rural development, and progressive reforms. Recent surveys from Invamer and others place him at 35–44 percent, well ahead of far-right lawyer Abelardo de la Espriella and center-right Democratic Center senator Paloma Valencia, whose combined support remains split along conservative lines. Lower-polling centrist figures such as Claudia López and Sergio Fajardo show no signs of consolidation that could alter the top-two dynamic before election day. With the first-round winner determined by plurality rather than majority, Cepeda’s consistent advantage across national samples underpins trader consensus on his frontrunner status.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
Apr 24 2026
Abelardo de la Espriella gains momentum in presidential race
Abelardo de la Espriella jumps to 14%7%
The ultraconservative lawyer saw a notable increase in market support as his campaign's 'iron-fisted' platform against criminal groups resonated with voters.
Apr 20 2026
Claudia López drops out and backs Cepeda
Claudia López drops to 0%6%
Claudia López withdrew from the race and threw her support behind Cepeda, causing her market price to fall to zero and further boosting Cepeda’s lead.
Apr 17 2026
Iván Cepeda Castro reaches new peak in market support
Iván Cepeda Castro jumps to 95%9%
Market confidence in Iván Cepeda Castro's victory reached a new high, reflecting his sustained lead and the weakening of alternative candidates.
Apr 15 2026
Vicky Dávila and Luis Gilberto Murillo formally endorse Cepeda
Iván Cepeda Castro rises to 94%3%
Both Vicky Dávila and Luis Gilberto Murillo publicly endorsed Iván Cepeda, consolidating the left‑wing bloc and eliminating their own market shares.
Apr 14 2026
Father of killed Colombian candidate Miguel Uribe relaunches presidential bid
Iván Cepeda Castro jumps to 94%8%
Miguel Uribe Londoño announced his candidacy to defend his son's political legacy, adding a new dynamic to the crowded field of over two dozen candidates.
Apr 10 2026
Iván Cepeda Castro solidifies lead as Colombia presidential front-runner
Iván Cepeda Castro surges to 92%19%
In April 2026, Iván Cepeda Castro's market price surged to 92%, reflecting his solidified position as the leading candidate for Colombia's presidency, with other candidates' chances diminishing to near zero.
Apr 4 2026
Explosive attack kills 13 on bus in southwestern Colombia amid rising violence
Iván Cepeda Castro jumps to 87%13%
A deadly bombing in Cauca region heightened security concerns and political instability, likely benefiting candidates emphasizing law and order such as Iván Cepeda Castro, who is associated with the left-wing coalition. This event reinforced voter focus on security issues ahead of the election.
Apr 1 2026
Government announces drone‑based coca eradication program
Iván Cepeda Castro jumps to 91%10%
President Gustavo Petro’s administration unveiled a new drone program to destroy coca crops, boosting security credentials of left‑wing candidates and reinforcing support for Cepeda’s platform.
Mar 15 2026
Interparty primaries narrow Colombia presidential candidate field
Iván Cepeda Castro jumps to 75%8%
As the election approached, interparty primaries in early March led to a narrowing of the candidate field, consolidating support around frontrunners like Iván Cepeda Castro and diminishing prospects for others such as Paloma Valencia and David Luna Sánchez.
Mar 11 2026
Iván Cepeda Castro surges in presidential polling
Iván Cepeda Castro jumps to 79%9%
Following a period of consolidation, Senator Iván Cepeda Castro saw a significant increase in his polling numbers, solidifying his position as a frontrunner in the presidential race.
Mar 5 2026
Abelardo de la Espriella withdraws from race
Abelardo de la Espriella drops to 13%6%
Abelardo de la Espriella announced his withdrawal citing personal reasons, causing his market price to tumble as his supporters dispersed.
Mar 3 2026
Iván Cepeda Castro gains momentum in presidential race
Iván Cepeda Castro jumps to 75%7%
Following interparty primaries, Senator Iván Cepeda Castro emerged as a frontrunner, causing his market price to rise significantly.
Mar 1 2026
Colombian plane crash kills 15 including congress member Diógenes Quintero
Iván Cepeda Castro jumps to 76%9%
The tragic crash heightened awareness of security and political risks in Colombia, potentially consolidating support for candidates promising stability and peace, such as Iván Cepeda Castro, who saw increased market support following the incident.
Mar 1 2026
Political tensions rise as President Gustavo Petro clashes with U.S. over Venezuela
Iván Cepeda Castro jumps to 75%11%
President Gustavo Petro's confrontational stance against U.S. policies on Venezuela heightened political tensions, influencing the electoral environment and bolstering support for candidates aligned with his coalition, notably Iván Cepeda Castro.
Feb 28 2026
Poll shows Iván Cepeda leading with 68% support
Iván Cepeda Castro jumps to 70%7%
A national poll released by a leading Colombian survey firm placed Iván Cepeda at 68% support, far ahead of any rival, prompting a sharp rise in his market price as voters coalesced around his candidacy.
Feb 10 2026
Colombia announces drone use to destroy coca crops amid cocaine production surge
Iván Cepeda Castro jumps to 69%8%
The government’s decision to use drones for coca crop eradication signaled a tougher stance on drug trafficking, influencing voter perceptions of candidates' security policies. This likely boosted support for Iván Cepeda Castro, who is part of the ruling coalition addressing these issues.
Jan 28 2026
Father of slain Colombian candidate Miguel Uribe relaunches presidential bid
Iván Cepeda Castro jumps to 57%10%
Miguel Uribe Londoño announced his presidential campaign to defend his late son's political legacy despite falling out with the Democratic Center party. This event highlighted the ongoing political violence and instability in Colombia ahead of the 2026 election, potentially impacting voter sentiment and market perceptions of candidate viability.
Jan 15 2026
Colombian President Gustavo Petro clashes with Trump over Venezuela policy
Iván Cepeda Castro jumps to 55%8%
Petro’s confrontation with former U.S. President Trump over Venezuela increased political polarization and energized his coalition’s base, benefiting Iván Cepeda Castro’s market position as a candidate aligned with Petro’s left-wing coalition.
Jan 7 2026
Abelardo de la Espriella's ultraconservative stance gains attention
Abelardo de la Espriella jumps to 31%8%
Abelardo de la Espriella, an ultraconservative lawyer admiring Salvadoran President Nayib Bukele, gained attention for his promise to take a hardline approach against criminal groups, briefly boosting his market position before it declined.
Jan 7 2026
Father of slain candidate Miguel Uribe relaunches presidential bid
Iván Cepeda Castro jumps to 55%8%
Miguel Uribe Londoño announced his presidential candidacy to defend his late son's political legacy, impacting the election dynamics by introducing a new contender and influencing voter perceptions of the Democratic Colombia party. This event likely contributed to shifts in candidate support early in the year.
Jan 7 2026
Father of slain candidate Miguel Uribe relaunches presidential bid
Abelardo de la Espriella plunges to 31%18%
Miguel Uribe Londoño announced his presidential candidacy to defend his late son's political legacy, impacting the political landscape and voter dynamics. This event likely influenced market perceptions of candidate viability, particularly affecting Abelardo de la Espriella's support as the field adjusted.
Jan 6 2026
Father of killed Colombian candidate Miguel Uribe relaunches presidential bid
Miguel Uribe Londoño announced his presidential candidacy to defend his son's legacy, adding another candidate to the crowded field.
Dec 30 2025
Father of slain candidate Miguel Uribe Turbay launches presidential bid
Iván Cepeda Castro jumps to 55%6%
Miguel Uribe Londoño announced his candidacy, emphasizing his son's legacy and drawing attention to the Historical Pact coalition led by Ivan Cepeda, boosting Cepeda's perceived viability.
Dec 30 2025
Iván Cepeda Castro gains momentum in polls amid left-wing coalition support
Iván Cepeda Castro jumps to 57%8%
Iván Cepeda Castro, a senator from President Gustavo Petro's left-wing Historical Pact coalition, began gaining significant support in polls, reflecting increased market confidence in his candidacy for the presidency. This surge was likely influenced by his coalition's political strength and Petro's administration's policies.
Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who receives the greatest number of valid votes in the first round of voting.
If the results of the first round of the Colombian presidential election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who receives the greatest number of valid votes in the first round of voting.
If the results of the first round of the Colombian presidential election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co). Iván Cepeda leads polls for Colombia’s May 31 first-round presidential vote by double-digit margins, reflecting his position as the Historic Pact candidate pledged to continue President Gustavo Petro’s agenda on peace talks, rural development, and progressive reforms. Recent surveys from Invamer and others place him at 35–44 percent, well ahead of far-right lawyer Abelardo de la Espriella and center-right Democratic Center senator Paloma Valencia, whose combined support remains split along conservative lines. Lower-polling centrist figures such as Claudia López and Sergio Fajardo show no signs of consolidation that could alter the top-two dynamic before election day. With the first-round winner determined by plurality rather than majority, Cepeda’s consistent advantage across national samples underpins trader consensus on his frontrunner status.
Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who receives the greatest number of valid votes in the first round of voting.
If the results of the first round of the Colombian presidential election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who receives the greatest number of valid votes in the first round of voting.
If the results of the first round of the Colombian presidential election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
Iván Cepeda leads polls for Colombia’s May 31 first-round presidential vote by double-digit margins, reflecting his position as the Historic Pact candidate pledged to continue President Gustavo Petro’s agenda on peace talks, rural development, and progressive reforms. Recent surveys from Invamer and others place him at 35–44 percent, well ahead of far-right lawyer Abelardo de la Espriella and center-right Democratic Center senator Paloma Valencia, whose combined support remains split along conservative lines. Lower-polling centrist figures such as Claudia López and Sergio Fajardo show no signs of consolidation that could alter the top-two dynamic before election day. With the first-round winner determined by plurality rather than majority, Cepeda’s consistent advantage across national samples underpins trader consensus on his frontrunner status.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
Apr 24 2026
Abelardo de la Espriella gains momentum in presidential race
Abelardo de la Espriella jumps to 14%7%
The ultraconservative lawyer saw a notable increase in market support as his campaign's 'iron-fisted' platform against criminal groups resonated with voters.
Apr 20 2026
Claudia López drops out and backs Cepeda
Claudia López drops to 0%6%
Claudia López withdrew from the race and threw her support behind Cepeda, causing her market price to fall to zero and further boosting Cepeda’s lead.
Apr 17 2026
Iván Cepeda Castro reaches new peak in market support
Iván Cepeda Castro jumps to 95%9%
Market confidence in Iván Cepeda Castro's victory reached a new high, reflecting his sustained lead and the weakening of alternative candidates.
Apr 15 2026
Vicky Dávila and Luis Gilberto Murillo formally endorse Cepeda
Iván Cepeda Castro rises to 94%3%
Both Vicky Dávila and Luis Gilberto Murillo publicly endorsed Iván Cepeda, consolidating the left‑wing bloc and eliminating their own market shares.
Apr 14 2026
Father of killed Colombian candidate Miguel Uribe relaunches presidential bid
Iván Cepeda Castro jumps to 94%8%
Miguel Uribe Londoño announced his candidacy to defend his son's political legacy, adding a new dynamic to the crowded field of over two dozen candidates.
Apr 10 2026
Iván Cepeda Castro solidifies lead as Colombia presidential front-runner
Iván Cepeda Castro surges to 92%19%
In April 2026, Iván Cepeda Castro's market price surged to 92%, reflecting his solidified position as the leading candidate for Colombia's presidency, with other candidates' chances diminishing to near zero.
Apr 4 2026
Explosive attack kills 13 on bus in southwestern Colombia amid rising violence
Iván Cepeda Castro jumps to 87%13%
A deadly bombing in Cauca region heightened security concerns and political instability, likely benefiting candidates emphasizing law and order such as Iván Cepeda Castro, who is associated with the left-wing coalition. This event reinforced voter focus on security issues ahead of the election.
Apr 1 2026
Government announces drone‑based coca eradication program
Iván Cepeda Castro jumps to 91%10%
President Gustavo Petro’s administration unveiled a new drone program to destroy coca crops, boosting security credentials of left‑wing candidates and reinforcing support for Cepeda’s platform.
Mar 15 2026
Interparty primaries narrow Colombia presidential candidate field
Iván Cepeda Castro jumps to 75%8%
As the election approached, interparty primaries in early March led to a narrowing of the candidate field, consolidating support around frontrunners like Iván Cepeda Castro and diminishing prospects for others such as Paloma Valencia and David Luna Sánchez.
Mar 11 2026
Iván Cepeda Castro surges in presidential polling
Iván Cepeda Castro jumps to 79%9%
Following a period of consolidation, Senator Iván Cepeda Castro saw a significant increase in his polling numbers, solidifying his position as a frontrunner in the presidential race.
Mar 5 2026
Abelardo de la Espriella withdraws from race
Abelardo de la Espriella drops to 13%6%
Abelardo de la Espriella announced his withdrawal citing personal reasons, causing his market price to tumble as his supporters dispersed.
Mar 3 2026
Iván Cepeda Castro gains momentum in presidential race
Iván Cepeda Castro jumps to 75%7%
Following interparty primaries, Senator Iván Cepeda Castro emerged as a frontrunner, causing his market price to rise significantly.
Mar 1 2026
Colombian plane crash kills 15 including congress member Diógenes Quintero
Iván Cepeda Castro jumps to 76%9%
The tragic crash heightened awareness of security and political risks in Colombia, potentially consolidating support for candidates promising stability and peace, such as Iván Cepeda Castro, who saw increased market support following the incident.
Mar 1 2026
Political tensions rise as President Gustavo Petro clashes with U.S. over Venezuela
Iván Cepeda Castro jumps to 75%11%
President Gustavo Petro's confrontational stance against U.S. policies on Venezuela heightened political tensions, influencing the electoral environment and bolstering support for candidates aligned with his coalition, notably Iván Cepeda Castro.
Feb 28 2026
Poll shows Iván Cepeda leading with 68% support
Iván Cepeda Castro jumps to 70%7%
A national poll released by a leading Colombian survey firm placed Iván Cepeda at 68% support, far ahead of any rival, prompting a sharp rise in his market price as voters coalesced around his candidacy.
Feb 10 2026
Colombia announces drone use to destroy coca crops amid cocaine production surge
Iván Cepeda Castro jumps to 69%8%
The government’s decision to use drones for coca crop eradication signaled a tougher stance on drug trafficking, influencing voter perceptions of candidates' security policies. This likely boosted support for Iván Cepeda Castro, who is part of the ruling coalition addressing these issues.
Jan 28 2026
Father of slain Colombian candidate Miguel Uribe relaunches presidential bid
Iván Cepeda Castro jumps to 57%10%
Miguel Uribe Londoño announced his presidential campaign to defend his late son's political legacy despite falling out with the Democratic Center party. This event highlighted the ongoing political violence and instability in Colombia ahead of the 2026 election, potentially impacting voter sentiment and market perceptions of candidate viability.
Jan 15 2026
Colombian President Gustavo Petro clashes with Trump over Venezuela policy
Iván Cepeda Castro jumps to 55%8%
Petro’s confrontation with former U.S. President Trump over Venezuela increased political polarization and energized his coalition’s base, benefiting Iván Cepeda Castro’s market position as a candidate aligned with Petro’s left-wing coalition.
Jan 7 2026
Abelardo de la Espriella's ultraconservative stance gains attention
Abelardo de la Espriella jumps to 31%8%
Abelardo de la Espriella, an ultraconservative lawyer admiring Salvadoran President Nayib Bukele, gained attention for his promise to take a hardline approach against criminal groups, briefly boosting his market position before it declined.
Jan 7 2026
Father of slain candidate Miguel Uribe relaunches presidential bid
Iván Cepeda Castro jumps to 55%8%
Miguel Uribe Londoño announced his presidential candidacy to defend his late son's political legacy, impacting the election dynamics by introducing a new contender and influencing voter perceptions of the Democratic Colombia party. This event likely contributed to shifts in candidate support early in the year.
Jan 7 2026
Father of slain candidate Miguel Uribe relaunches presidential bid
Abelardo de la Espriella plunges to 31%18%
Miguel Uribe Londoño announced his presidential candidacy to defend his late son's political legacy, impacting the political landscape and voter dynamics. This event likely influenced market perceptions of candidate viability, particularly affecting Abelardo de la Espriella's support as the field adjusted.
Jan 6 2026
Father of killed Colombian candidate Miguel Uribe relaunches presidential bid
Miguel Uribe Londoño announced his presidential candidacy to defend his son's legacy, adding another candidate to the crowded field.
Dec 30 2025
Father of slain candidate Miguel Uribe Turbay launches presidential bid
Iván Cepeda Castro jumps to 55%6%
Miguel Uribe Londoño announced his candidacy, emphasizing his son's legacy and drawing attention to the Historical Pact coalition led by Ivan Cepeda, boosting Cepeda's perceived viability.
Dec 30 2025
Iván Cepeda Castro gains momentum in polls amid left-wing coalition support
Iván Cepeda Castro jumps to 57%8%
Iván Cepeda Castro, a senator from President Gustavo Petro's left-wing Historical Pact coalition, began gaining significant support in polls, reflecting increased market confidence in his candidacy for the presidency. This surge was likely influenced by his coalition's political strength and Petro's administration's policies.
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외부 링크에 주의하세요.
자주 묻는 질문
" 콜롬비아 대통령 선거 1차 승자는?"은 18개의 가능한 결과가 있는 Polymarket의 예측 마켓으로, 트레이더들이 어떤 결과가 발생할지에 따라 주식을 매수 및 매도합니다. 현재 선두 결과는 84%의 "이반 세페다 카스트로"이며, 이어서 16%의 "아벨라르도 데 라 에스프리에야"입니다. 가격은 실시간 크라우드소싱 확률을 반영합니다. 예를 들어 84¢에 거래되는 주식은 마켓이 해당 결과에 84%의 확률을 부여함을 의미합니다. 이 확률은 트레이더들이 새로운 진전과 정보에 반응함에 따라 지속적으로 변화합니다. 정확한 결과의 주식은 마켓 정산 시 각 $1에 교환 가능합니다.
오늘 현재 " 콜롬비아 대통령 선거 1차 승자는?"은 총 $6 million의 거래량을 생성했습니다 마켓이 Dec 23, 2025에 시작된 이후. 이 수준의 거래 활동은 Polymarket 커뮤니티의 강한 참여를 반영하며 현재 확률이 깊은 참가자 풀에 의해 정보에 기반하도록 보장합니다. 이 페이지에서 실시간 가격 변동을 추적하고 모든 결과에 직접 거래할 수 있습니다.
" 콜롬비아 대통령 선거 1차 승자는?"에서 거래하려면 이 페이지에 나열된 18개의 가용 결과를 탐색하세요. 각 결과에는 마켓의 내재 확률을 나타내는 현재 가격이 표시됩니다. 포지션을 잡으려면 가장 가능성이 높다고 생각하는 결과를 선택하고, 찬성이면 "Yes", 반대이면 "No"를 선택하고, 금액을 입력하고 "거래"를 클릭하세요. 마켓이 정산될 때 선택한 결과가 맞으면 "Yes" 주식은 각 $1을 지급합니다. 틀리면 $0을 지급합니다. 수익을 확정하거나 손실을 줄이고 싶다면 정산 전 언제든지 주식을 매도할 수 있습니다.
" 콜롬비아 대통령 선거 1차 승자는?"의 현재 유력 후보는 84%의 "이반 세페다 카스트로"이며, 마켓이 해당 결과에 84%의 확률을 부여합니다. 두 번째로 가까운 결과는 16%의 "아벨라르도 데 라 에스프리에야"입니다. 이 확률은 트레이더들의 주식 매수 및 매도에 따라 실시간으로 업데이트되어 가장 가능성 있는 결과에 대한 최신 집단 시각을 반영합니다. 새로운 정보가 나타남에 따라 확률이 어떻게 변화하는지 자주 확인하거나 이 페이지를 북마크하세요.
" 콜롬비아 대통령 선거 1차 승자는?"의 정산 규칙은 각 결과가 승자로 선언되기 위해 정확히 무엇이 일어나야 하는지를 정의합니다 — 결과를 결정하는 데 사용되는 공식 데이터 소스를 포함합니다. 이 페이지의 댓글 위 "규칙" 섹션에서 완전한 정산 기준을 검토할 수 있습니다. 거래 전 규칙을 주의 깊게 읽는 것을 권장합니다. 이 마켓이 어떻게 정산되는지를 관리하는 정확한 조건, 예외 사항, 출처를 명시하고 있습니다.
네. 정보를 얻기 위해 거래할 필요가 없습니다. 이 페이지는 " 콜롬비아 대통령 선거 1차 승자는?"의 실시간 추적기 역할을 합니다. 결과 확률은 새로운 거래가 들어옴에 따라 실시간으로 업데이트됩니다. 이 페이지를 북마크하고 다른 트레이더들이 무엇을 말하는지 댓글 섹션을 확인할 수 있습니다. 차트의 시간 범위 필터를 사용하여 확률이 시간에 따라 어떻게 변화했는지 확인할 수도 있습니다. 마켓이 기대하는 바에 대한 무료 실시간 창입니다.
Polymarket 확률은 자신의 신념에 실제 돈을 투자하는 트레이더들에 의해 설정되어 정확한 예측을 표면화하는 경향이 있습니다. " 콜롬비아 대통령 선거 1차 승자는?"에 $6 million이 거래되어 이 가격은 수천 명의 참가자의 집단 지식과 확신을 집계합니다 — 여론조사, 전문가 예측, 기존 설문조사를 종종 능가합니다. Polymarket과 같은 예측 마켓은 특히 이벤트가 정산일에 가까워질수록 강한 정확도 실적을 가지고 있습니다. 예를 들어 Polymarket의 1개월 정확도 점수는 94%입니다. Polymarket의 예측 정확도에 대한 최신 통계는 정확도 페이지를 방문하세요.
" 콜롬비아 대통령 선거 1차 승자는?"에서 첫 거래를 하려면 무료 Polymarket 계정에 가입하고 암호화폐, 신용 또는 직불카드, 은행 이체를 사용하여 자금을 입금하세요. 계정에 자금이 입금되면 이 페이지로 돌아와 거래하려는 결과를 선택하고 금액을 입력하고 "거래"를 클릭하세요. 예측 마켓이 처음이라면 Polymarket 페이지 상단의 "이용 방법" 링크를 클릭하여 거래 방법에 대한 단계별 안내를 확인하세요.
Polymarket에서 각 결과의 가격은 마켓의 내재 확률을 나타냅니다. " 콜롬비아 대통령 선거 1차 승자는?" 마켓에서 "이반 세페다 카스트로"의 84¢ 가격은 트레이더들이 "이반 세페다 카스트로"이 정확한 결과가 될 확률을 대략 84%로 보고 있음을 의미합니다. 84¢에 "Yes" 주식을 매수하고 결과가 맞으면 주당 $1.00을 받습니다 — 주당 16¢의 수익입니다. 틀리면 해당 주식은 $0의 가치입니다.
" 콜롬비아 대통령 선거 1차 승자는?" 마켓은 May 31, 2026 전후에 정산될 예정입니다. 이는 해당 날짜까지 거래가 계속 열려 있고 새로운 정보가 나타남에 따라 확률이 계속 변할 것임을 의미합니다. 정확한 정산 시기는 이 페이지의 "규칙" 섹션에 명시된 대로 공식 결과가 이용 가능해지는 시점에 따라 달라집니다.
" 콜롬비아 대통령 선거 1차 승자는?" 마켓에는 트레이더들이 분석을 공유하고, 결과를 토론하고, 최신 진전을 논의하는 39개 댓글의 활발한 커뮤니티이 있습니다. 아래 댓글 섹션으로 스크롤하여 다른 참가자들의 의견을 읽어보세요. "상위 보유자"로 필터링하여 마켓의 가장 큰 트레이더들의 포지션을 확인하거나 "활동" 탭에서 실시간 거래 피드를 확인할 수도 있습니다.
Polymarket은 세계 최대 예측 마켓으로, 실제 이벤트에 대한 지식으로 정보를 얻고 수익을 낼 수 있습니다. 트레이더들은 정치, 선거, 암호화폐, 금융, 스포츠, 기술, 문화 등 " 콜롬비아 대통령 선거 1차 승자는?"과 같은 마켓을 포함한 다양한 주제의 결과에 대한 주식을 매수 및 매도합니다. 가격은 금전적 확신에 뒷받침된 실시간 크라우드소싱 확률을 반영하며, 여론조사, 전문가, 기존 설문조사보다 빠르고 정확한 신호를 제공하는 경우가 많습니다.
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