Traders on Polymarket have priced an 83% implied probability for Google's Gemini 3.2 large language model releasing on May 19, driven by leaks of the Gemini 3.2 Flash variant spotted in iOS app builds around May 5 and briefly available in the Gemini app, alongside testing in LM Arena environments. This sentiment aligns with Google I/O 2026 kicking off May 19 with a keynote at 10 a.m. PT, where the company historically unveils major AI advancements amid competitive pressure from OpenAI and Anthropic. Recent Gemini API changelogs confirm only minor 3.1 Flash-Lite updates as of May 7, heightening anticipation for a Flash-tier debut, though no official announcement leaves room for delays or a Pro variant skip before May 31. Watch the keynote for resolution catalysts.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트May 19 83%
May 18 4.6%
May 20 2.9%
May 21 2.6%
$210,115 거래량
$210,115 거래량
2026.05.31
May 12
<1%
May 13
<1%
May 14
1%
May 15
<1%
May 16
<1%
May 17
<1%
May 18
5%
May 19
83%
May 20
3%
May 21
3%
May 22
2%
May 23
1%
May 24
<1%
May 25
1%
May 26
1%
May 27
1%
May 28
<1%
May 29
<1%
May 30
<1%
May 31
<1%
No release by May 31
1%
May 19 83%
May 18 4.6%
May 20 2.9%
May 21 2.6%
$210,115 거래량
$210,115 거래량
2026.05.31
May 12
$7,784 거래량
<1%
May 13
$3,368 거래량
<1%
May 14
$3,770 거래량
1%
May 15
$6,886 거래량
<1%
May 16
$5,588 거래량
<1%
May 17
$6,348 거래량
<1%
May 18
$16,340 거래량
5%
May 19
$78,217 거래량
83%
May 20
$12,161 거래량
3%
May 21
$7,530 거래량
3%
May 22
$9,273 거래량
2%
May 23
$3,069 거래량
1%
May 24
$3,950 거래량
<1%
May 25
$2,132 거래량
1%
May 26
$2,792 거래량
1%
May 27
$2,335 거래량
1%
May 28
$2,006 거래량
<1%
May 29
$1,605 거래량
<1%
May 30
$3,689 거래량
<1%
May 31
$3,573 거래량
<1%
No release by May 31
$8,948 거래량
1%
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's Gemini 3.2 model is made available to the general public.
Gemini 3.2 refers to a product explicitly named Gemini 3.2, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Gemini 3.1, similar to the progression from Gemini 3 to Gemini 3.1. (e.g., Gemini 3.2 GA, Gemini 3.2/3.3/3.4, etc., in any variant, like Pro/Deep Think/Flash/Flash-lite, would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Specialized models for non-text modalities such as video generation (e.g., Veo), image generation (e.g., Imagen, Nano Banana), music generation (e.g., Lyria), or robotics (e.g., Gemini Robotics) will NOT qualify, even if released under the Gemini 3.2 version number. Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., Gemini 3.1 GA) or a new flagship generation (e.g., Gemini 4) or similar that are not explicitly labeled as described above will NOT qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Traders on Polymarket have priced an 83% implied probability for Google's Gemini 3.2 large language model releasing on May 19, driven by leaks of the Gemini 3.2 Flash variant spotted in iOS app builds around May 5 and briefly available in the Gemini app, alongside testing in LM Arena environments. This sentiment aligns with Google I/O 2026 kicking off May 19 with a keynote at 10 a.m. PT, where the company historically unveils major AI advancements amid competitive pressure from OpenAI and Anthropic. Recent Gemini API changelogs confirm only minor 3.1 Flash-Lite updates as of May 7, heightening anticipation for a Flash-tier debut, though no official announcement leaves room for delays or a Pro variant skip before May 31. Watch the keynote for resolution catalysts.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's Gemini 3.2 model is made available to the general public.
Gemini 3.2 refers to a product explicitly named Gemini 3.2, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Gemini 3.1, similar to the progression from Gemini 3 to Gemini 3.1. (e.g., Gemini 3.2 GA, Gemini 3.2/3.3/3.4, etc., in any variant, like Pro/Deep Think/Flash/Flash-lite, would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Specialized models for non-text modalities such as video generation (e.g., Veo), image generation (e.g., Imagen, Nano Banana), music generation (e.g., Lyria), or robotics (e.g., Gemini Robotics) will NOT qualify, even if released under the Gemini 3.2 version number. Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., Gemini 3.1 GA) or a new flagship generation (e.g., Gemini 4) or similar that are not explicitly labeled as described above will NOT qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Gemini 3.2 refers to a product explicitly named Gemini 3.2, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Gemini 3.1, similar to the progression from Gemini 3 to Gemini 3.1. (e.g., Gemini 3.2 GA, Gemini 3.2/3.3/3.4, etc., in any variant, like Pro/Deep Think/Flash/Flash-lite, would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Specialized models for non-text modalities such as video generation (e.g., Veo), image generation (e.g., Imagen, Nano Banana), music generation (e.g., Lyria), or robotics (e.g., Gemini Robotics) will NOT qualify, even if released under the Gemini 3.2 version number. Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., Gemini 3.1 GA) or a new flagship generation (e.g., Gemini 4) or similar that are not explicitly labeled as described above will NOT qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
마켓 개설일: May 5, 2026, 7:43 PM ET
거래량
$210,115종료일
2026.05.31마켓 개설일
May 5, 2026, 7:43 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's Gemini 3.2 model is made available to the general public.
Gemini 3.2 refers to a product explicitly named Gemini 3.2, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Gemini 3.1, similar to the progression from Gemini 3 to Gemini 3.1. (e.g., Gemini 3.2 GA, Gemini 3.2/3.3/3.4, etc., in any variant, like Pro/Deep Think/Flash/Flash-lite, would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Specialized models for non-text modalities such as video generation (e.g., Veo), image generation (e.g., Imagen, Nano Banana), music generation (e.g., Lyria), or robotics (e.g., Gemini Robotics) will NOT qualify, even if released under the Gemini 3.2 version number. Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., Gemini 3.1 GA) or a new flagship generation (e.g., Gemini 4) or similar that are not explicitly labeled as described above will NOT qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Traders on Polymarket have priced an 83% implied probability for Google's Gemini 3.2 large language model releasing on May 19, driven by leaks of the Gemini 3.2 Flash variant spotted in iOS app builds around May 5 and briefly available in the Gemini app, alongside testing in LM Arena environments. This sentiment aligns with Google I/O 2026 kicking off May 19 with a keynote at 10 a.m. PT, where the company historically unveils major AI advancements amid competitive pressure from OpenAI and Anthropic. Recent Gemini API changelogs confirm only minor 3.1 Flash-Lite updates as of May 7, heightening anticipation for a Flash-tier debut, though no official announcement leaves room for delays or a Pro variant skip before May 31. Watch the keynote for resolution catalysts.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's Gemini 3.2 model is made available to the general public.
Gemini 3.2 refers to a product explicitly named Gemini 3.2, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Gemini 3.1, similar to the progression from Gemini 3 to Gemini 3.1. (e.g., Gemini 3.2 GA, Gemini 3.2/3.3/3.4, etc., in any variant, like Pro/Deep Think/Flash/Flash-lite, would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Specialized models for non-text modalities such as video generation (e.g., Veo), image generation (e.g., Imagen, Nano Banana), music generation (e.g., Lyria), or robotics (e.g., Gemini Robotics) will NOT qualify, even if released under the Gemini 3.2 version number. Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., Gemini 3.1 GA) or a new flagship generation (e.g., Gemini 4) or similar that are not explicitly labeled as described above will NOT qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Gemini 3.2 refers to a product explicitly named Gemini 3.2, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Gemini 3.1, similar to the progression from Gemini 3 to Gemini 3.1. (e.g., Gemini 3.2 GA, Gemini 3.2/3.3/3.4, etc., in any variant, like Pro/Deep Think/Flash/Flash-lite, would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Specialized models for non-text modalities such as video generation (e.g., Veo), image generation (e.g., Imagen, Nano Banana), music generation (e.g., Lyria), or robotics (e.g., Gemini Robotics) will NOT qualify, even if released under the Gemini 3.2 version number. Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., Gemini 3.1 GA) or a new flagship generation (e.g., Gemini 4) or similar that are not explicitly labeled as described above will NOT qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
거래량
$210,115종료일
2026.05.31마켓 개설일
May 5, 2026, 7:43 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders on Polymarket have priced an 83% implied probability for Google's Gemini 3.2 large language model releasing on May 19, driven by leaks of the Gemini 3.2 Flash variant spotted in iOS app builds around May 5 and briefly available in the Gemini app, alongside testing in LM Arena environments. This sentiment aligns with Google I/O 2026 kicking off May 19 with a keynote at 10 a.m. PT, where the company historically unveils major AI advancements amid competitive pressure from OpenAI and Anthropic. Recent Gemini API changelogs confirm only minor 3.1 Flash-Lite updates as of May 7, heightening anticipation for a Flash-tier debut, though no official announcement leaves room for delays or a Pro variant skip before May 31. Watch the keynote for resolution catalysts.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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