Trader consensus on the >9 outcome at 94.5% implied probability reflects the established USGS baseline of 10–15 magnitude 5.5+ earthquakes occurring globally each week from routine plate-boundary activity along subduction zones and transform faults. This average, drawn from long-term seismic catalogs, makes a statistically quiet interval below nine events unlikely absent major suppression of tectonic stress release. Recent detections, including several M5.5–6.5 events early in the window, align with normal variability rather than signaling a shift. Final resolution depends on reviewed USGS magnitudes, where minor adjustments near the threshold could occur but rarely alter weekly totals substantially. A sudden lull in aftershock sequences or delayed reporting remains the main scenario that could challenge the current positioning.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트6월 8일 ~ 6월 14일 중 지진이 5.5회 이상인 경우는 몇 건인가요?
6월 8일 ~ 6월 14일 중 지진이 5.5회 이상인 경우는 몇 건인가요?
>9 95%
8 2.6%
9 1.8%
6 1.0%
$26,012 거래량
$26,012 거래량
2026.06.15
≤3
<1%
4
<1%
5
<1%
6
1%
7
1%
8
3%
9
2%
>9
95%
>9 95%
8 2.6%
9 1.8%
6 1.0%
$26,012 거래량
$26,012 거래량
2026.06.15
≤3
$3,314 거래량
<1%
4
$2,340 거래량
<1%
5
$3,737 거래량
<1%
6
$3,275 거래량
1%
7
$2,373 거래량
1%
8
$2,496 거래량
3%
9
$2,579 거래량
2%
>9
$5,901 거래량
95%
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between June 8, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and June 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader consensus on the >9 outcome at 94.5% implied probability reflects the established USGS baseline of 10–15 magnitude 5.5+ earthquakes occurring globally each week from routine plate-boundary activity along subduction zones and transform faults. This average, drawn from long-term seismic catalogs, makes a statistically quiet interval below nine events unlikely absent major suppression of tectonic stress release. Recent detections, including several M5.5–6.5 events early in the window, align with normal variability rather than signaling a shift. Final resolution depends on reviewed USGS magnitudes, where minor adjustments near the threshold could occur but rarely alter weekly totals substantially. A sudden lull in aftershock sequences or delayed reporting remains the main scenario that could challenge the current positioning.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between June 8, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and June 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
마켓 개설일: Jun 5, 2026, 6:47 PM ET
거래량
$26,012종료일
2026.06.15마켓 개설일
Jun 5, 2026, 6:47 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between June 8, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and June 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader consensus on the >9 outcome at 94.5% implied probability reflects the established USGS baseline of 10–15 magnitude 5.5+ earthquakes occurring globally each week from routine plate-boundary activity along subduction zones and transform faults. This average, drawn from long-term seismic catalogs, makes a statistically quiet interval below nine events unlikely absent major suppression of tectonic stress release. Recent detections, including several M5.5–6.5 events early in the window, align with normal variability rather than signaling a shift. Final resolution depends on reviewed USGS magnitudes, where minor adjustments near the threshold could occur but rarely alter weekly totals substantially. A sudden lull in aftershock sequences or delayed reporting remains the main scenario that could challenge the current positioning.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between June 8, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and June 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
거래량
$26,012종료일
2026.06.15마켓 개설일
Jun 5, 2026, 6:47 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on the >9 outcome at 94.5% implied probability reflects the established USGS baseline of 10–15 magnitude 5.5+ earthquakes occurring globally each week from routine plate-boundary activity along subduction zones and transform faults. This average, drawn from long-term seismic catalogs, makes a statistically quiet interval below nine events unlikely absent major suppression of tectonic stress release. Recent detections, including several M5.5–6.5 events early in the window, align with normal variability rather than signaling a shift. Final resolution depends on reviewed USGS magnitudes, where minor adjustments near the threshold could occur but rarely alter weekly totals substantially. A sudden lull in aftershock sequences or delayed reporting remains the main scenario that could challenge the current positioning.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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