Incumbent Rep. Mary Miller's decisive March 17 Republican primary win with 73.5% has locked in the GOP nomination against Democrat Jennifer Todd in the solidly Republican IL-15 district, driving trader consensus to 93.5% for the Republican Party. The district's R+20 Cook Partisan Voter Index, history of double-digit GOP margins—including Miller's unopposed 2024 victory—and her fundraising dominance ($833,000 cash on hand vs. Todd's $9,000 as of late March, per May reports) underpin Solid/Safe Republican ratings from Cook, Sabato, and others. Scenarios like a Miller scandal, health event, or national Democratic midterm wave could challenge this, though structural barriers remain formidable ahead of the November 3 general election.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트$21,684 거래량
$21,684 거래량
2026.11.03
공화당
94%
민주당
7%
$21,684 거래량
$21,684 거래량
2026.11.03
공화당
$15,486 거래량
94%
민주당
$6,197 거래량
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rep. Mary Miller's decisive March 17 Republican primary win with 73.5% has locked in the GOP nomination against Democrat Jennifer Todd in the solidly Republican IL-15 district, driving trader consensus to 93.5% for the Republican Party. The district's R+20 Cook Partisan Voter Index, history of double-digit GOP margins—including Miller's unopposed 2024 victory—and her fundraising dominance ($833,000 cash on hand vs. Todd's $9,000 as of late March, per May reports) underpin Solid/Safe Republican ratings from Cook, Sabato, and others. Scenarios like a Miller scandal, health event, or national Democratic midterm wave could challenge this, though structural barriers remain formidable ahead of the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
마켓 개설일: Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
거래량
$21,684종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rep. Mary Miller's decisive March 17 Republican primary win with 73.5% has locked in the GOP nomination against Democrat Jennifer Todd in the solidly Republican IL-15 district, driving trader consensus to 93.5% for the Republican Party. The district's R+20 Cook Partisan Voter Index, history of double-digit GOP margins—including Miller's unopposed 2024 victory—and her fundraising dominance ($833,000 cash on hand vs. Todd's $9,000 as of late March, per May reports) underpin Solid/Safe Republican ratings from Cook, Sabato, and others. Scenarios like a Miller scandal, health event, or national Democratic midterm wave could challenge this, though structural barriers remain formidable ahead of the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
거래량
$21,684종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Rep. Mary Miller's decisive March 17 Republican primary win with 73.5% has locked in the GOP nomination against Democrat Jennifer Todd in the solidly Republican IL-15 district, driving trader consensus to 93.5% for the Republican Party. The district's R+20 Cook Partisan Voter Index, history of double-digit GOP margins—including Miller's unopposed 2024 victory—and her fundraising dominance ($833,000 cash on hand vs. Todd's $9,000 as of late March, per May reports) underpin Solid/Safe Republican ratings from Cook, Sabato, and others. Scenarios like a Miller scandal, health event, or national Democratic midterm wave could challenge this, though structural barriers remain formidable ahead of the November 3 general election.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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