Incumbent Rep. Frank Mrvan's commanding victory in the May 5 Democratic primary, capturing over 80% of the vote against token opposition, has solidified trader consensus favoring Democrats at 80.5% implied probability for Indiana's 1st Congressional District. GOP nominee Barb Regnitz advanced from a fragmented Republican primary with a 46-49% plurality, defeating two rivals amid no standout challenger emerging. The district's Cook PVI of D+1, near-even 2024 presidential split (Harris 49.4%, Trump 49.0%), and Mrvan's consistent general election wins—53-45% in 2024, 53-47% in 2022—underscore his incumbency advantage, aligning with forecasters' Likely Democratic ratings. No recent polls exist, but the wisdom of crowds prices in limited GOP path amid similar fundraising. General election: November 3.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트신규
신규
2026.11.04
Democratic Party
78%
Republican Party
21%
신규
신규
2026.11.04
Democratic Party
$152 거래량
78%
Republican Party
$291 거래량
21%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IN-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rep. Frank Mrvan's commanding victory in the May 5 Democratic primary, capturing over 80% of the vote against token opposition, has solidified trader consensus favoring Democrats at 80.5% implied probability for Indiana's 1st Congressional District. GOP nominee Barb Regnitz advanced from a fragmented Republican primary with a 46-49% plurality, defeating two rivals amid no standout challenger emerging. The district's Cook PVI of D+1, near-even 2024 presidential split (Harris 49.4%, Trump 49.0%), and Mrvan's consistent general election wins—53-45% in 2024, 53-47% in 2022—underscore his incumbency advantage, aligning with forecasters' Likely Democratic ratings. No recent polls exist, but the wisdom of crowds prices in limited GOP path amid similar fundraising. General election: November 3.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IN-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
마켓 개설일: Dec 16, 2025, 11:52 AM ET
거래량
$443종료일
2026.11.04마켓 개설일
Dec 16, 2025, 11:52 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IN-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rep. Frank Mrvan's commanding victory in the May 5 Democratic primary, capturing over 80% of the vote against token opposition, has solidified trader consensus favoring Democrats at 80.5% implied probability for Indiana's 1st Congressional District. GOP nominee Barb Regnitz advanced from a fragmented Republican primary with a 46-49% plurality, defeating two rivals amid no standout challenger emerging. The district's Cook PVI of D+1, near-even 2024 presidential split (Harris 49.4%, Trump 49.0%), and Mrvan's consistent general election wins—53-45% in 2024, 53-47% in 2022—underscore his incumbency advantage, aligning with forecasters' Likely Democratic ratings. No recent polls exist, but the wisdom of crowds prices in limited GOP path amid similar fundraising. General election: November 3.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IN-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
거래량
$443종료일
2026.11.04마켓 개설일
Dec 16, 2025, 11:52 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Rep. Frank Mrvan's commanding victory in the May 5 Democratic primary, capturing over 80% of the vote against token opposition, has solidified trader consensus favoring Democrats at 80.5% implied probability for Indiana's 1st Congressional District. GOP nominee Barb Regnitz advanced from a fragmented Republican primary with a 46-49% plurality, defeating two rivals amid no standout challenger emerging. The district's Cook PVI of D+1, near-even 2024 presidential split (Harris 49.4%, Trump 49.0%), and Mrvan's consistent general election wins—53-45% in 2024, 53-47% in 2022—underscore his incumbency advantage, aligning with forecasters' Likely Democratic ratings. No recent polls exist, but the wisdom of crowds prices in limited GOP path amid similar fundraising. General election: November 3.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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