Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s death in February 2026 has shifted management of the official @khamenei_ir account to archival reposts of prior statements rather than frequent original content. This structural change has produced only sporadic activity in early May, with posts appearing on isolated dates rather than daily. Traders therefore assign an 82.5% implied probability to fewer than five posts during the May 12–19 resolution window, viewing sustained low output as the baseline absent any major policy announcement, diplomatic development, or regime event that would require broader messaging. Historical patterns since the assassination show the account maintains minimal volume unless prompted by acute regional developments, keeping higher bins at single-digit probabilities.