Trader consensus on this market reflects the Supreme Leader's established pattern of issuing infrequent written statements primarily in response to major geopolitical developments rather than routine commentary. Ongoing frictions involving the Strait of Hormuz, nuclear capabilities, and regional security have generated occasional posts in recent weeks, yet the absence of acute new escalations in the past several days has kept volume low. The tight spread between the sub-5 and 5-9 bins captures uncertainty over whether diplomatic or military signals will prompt additional releases during the window or whether conditions will remain quiet enough for minimal activity. Any sudden shift in U.S.-Iran or Israel-Iran dynamics before May 22 could separate the leading outcomes by triggering more official messaging.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트Khamenei # posts 2026년 5월 15일 - 5월 22일?
Khamenei # posts 2026년 5월 15일 - 5월 22일?
<5 45%
55~59 41.8%
50-54 40.1%
45~49 40.1%
신규
신규
2026.05.22
<5
45%
5~9
47%
10-14
23%
15~19
40%
20~24
40%
25-29
40%
30-34
36%
35~39
40%
40~44
6%
45~49
40%
50-54
40%
55~59
42%
60+
22%
<5 45%
55~59 41.8%
50-54 40.1%
45~49 40.1%
신규
신규
2026.05.22
<5
$214 거래량
45%
5~9
$62 거래량
47%
10-14
$71 거래량
23%
15~19
$44 거래량
40%
20~24
$40 거래량
40%
25-29
$40 거래량
40%
30-34
$85 거래량
36%
35~39
$61 거래량
40%
40~44
$140 거래량
6%
45~49
$70 거래량
40%
50-54
$69 거래량
40%
55~59
$55 거래량
42%
60+
$123 거래량
22%
This market will resolve according to the number of times Khamenei (@khamenei_ir), posts on X between May 15, 12:00 PM ET and May 22, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Trader consensus on this market reflects the Supreme Leader's established pattern of issuing infrequent written statements primarily in response to major geopolitical developments rather than routine commentary. Ongoing frictions involving the Strait of Hormuz, nuclear capabilities, and regional security have generated occasional posts in recent weeks, yet the absence of acute new escalations in the past several days has kept volume low. The tight spread between the sub-5 and 5-9 bins captures uncertainty over whether diplomatic or military signals will prompt additional releases during the window or whether conditions will remain quiet enough for minimal activity. Any sudden shift in U.S.-Iran or Israel-Iran dynamics before May 22 could separate the leading outcomes by triggering more official messaging.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Khamenei (@khamenei_ir), posts on X between May 15, 12:00 PM ET and May 22, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
마켓 개설일: May 12, 2026, 12:01 AM ET
거래량
$1,075종료일
2026.05.22마켓 개설일
May 12, 2026, 12:01 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of times Khamenei (@khamenei_ir), posts on X between May 15, 12:00 PM ET and May 22, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Trader consensus on this market reflects the Supreme Leader's established pattern of issuing infrequent written statements primarily in response to major geopolitical developments rather than routine commentary. Ongoing frictions involving the Strait of Hormuz, nuclear capabilities, and regional security have generated occasional posts in recent weeks, yet the absence of acute new escalations in the past several days has kept volume low. The tight spread between the sub-5 and 5-9 bins captures uncertainty over whether diplomatic or military signals will prompt additional releases during the window or whether conditions will remain quiet enough for minimal activity. Any sudden shift in U.S.-Iran or Israel-Iran dynamics before May 22 could separate the leading outcomes by triggering more official messaging.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Khamenei (@khamenei_ir), posts on X between May 15, 12:00 PM ET and May 22, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
거래량
$1,075종료일
2026.05.22마켓 개설일
May 12, 2026, 12:01 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on this market reflects the Supreme Leader's established pattern of issuing infrequent written statements primarily in response to major geopolitical developments rather than routine commentary. Ongoing frictions involving the Strait of Hormuz, nuclear capabilities, and regional security have generated occasional posts in recent weeks, yet the absence of acute new escalations in the past several days has kept volume low. The tight spread between the sub-5 and 5-9 bins captures uncertainty over whether diplomatic or military signals will prompt additional releases during the window or whether conditions will remain quiet enough for minimal activity. Any sudden shift in U.S.-Iran or Israel-Iran dynamics before May 22 could separate the leading outcomes by triggering more official messaging.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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