Incumbent Republican Tracey Mann holds a commanding position in Kansas's 1st congressional district, a seat with an R+16 partisan lean that has delivered double-digit victories in recent cycles. Strong fundraising totals exceeding $1.2 million as of March, combined with a weak Democratic primary field and the district's historical Republican dominance, underpin trader consensus reflected in current pricing. The August 4 primaries and November general election timeline reinforce incumbency advantages in this rural, conservative-leaning area. Late developments such as a major scandal, unexpected health issue for the incumbent, or emergence of a high-profile Democratic recruit could narrow the gap, though structural barriers including voter registration patterns and past margins make such shifts unlikely without extraordinary circumstances.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트신규
신규
2026.11.03
Republican Party
92%
Democratic Party
8%
신규
신규
2026.11.03
Republican Party
$1,943 거래량
92%
Democratic Party
$1,526 거래량
8%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the KS-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Tracey Mann holds a commanding position in Kansas's 1st congressional district, a seat with an R+16 partisan lean that has delivered double-digit victories in recent cycles. Strong fundraising totals exceeding $1.2 million as of March, combined with a weak Democratic primary field and the district's historical Republican dominance, underpin trader consensus reflected in current pricing. The August 4 primaries and November general election timeline reinforce incumbency advantages in this rural, conservative-leaning area. Late developments such as a major scandal, unexpected health issue for the incumbent, or emergence of a high-profile Democratic recruit could narrow the gap, though structural barriers including voter registration patterns and past margins make such shifts unlikely without extraordinary circumstances.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the KS-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
마켓 개설일: Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
거래량
$3,468종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the KS-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Tracey Mann holds a commanding position in Kansas's 1st congressional district, a seat with an R+16 partisan lean that has delivered double-digit victories in recent cycles. Strong fundraising totals exceeding $1.2 million as of March, combined with a weak Democratic primary field and the district's historical Republican dominance, underpin trader consensus reflected in current pricing. The August 4 primaries and November general election timeline reinforce incumbency advantages in this rural, conservative-leaning area. Late developments such as a major scandal, unexpected health issue for the incumbent, or emergence of a high-profile Democratic recruit could narrow the gap, though structural barriers including voter registration patterns and past margins make such shifts unlikely without extraordinary circumstances.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the KS-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
거래량
$3,468종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Tracey Mann holds a commanding position in Kansas's 1st congressional district, a seat with an R+16 partisan lean that has delivered double-digit victories in recent cycles. Strong fundraising totals exceeding $1.2 million as of March, combined with a weak Democratic primary field and the district's historical Republican dominance, underpin trader consensus reflected in current pricing. The August 4 primaries and November general election timeline reinforce incumbency advantages in this rural, conservative-leaning area. Late developments such as a major scandal, unexpected health issue for the incumbent, or emergence of a high-profile Democratic recruit could narrow the gap, though structural barriers including voter registration patterns and past margins make such shifts unlikely without extraordinary circumstances.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
외부 링크에 주의하세요.
외부 링크에 주의하세요.
자주 묻는 질문