Incumbent Republican Ron Estes' dominant position in the solidly Republican KS-04 district, rated Safe Republican by Cook Political Report with an R+12 Partisan Voter Index, underpins trader consensus pricing Republicans at 83.5% to retain the House seat. Estes, who secured 65% in the 2024 general election, filed for reelection in January 2026 and boasts $1.6 million cash on hand per March 31 finance reports, dwarfing the fragmented Democratic primary field of five candidates—including Chris Carmichael and Katy Tyndell, with combined cash under $200,000. No recent polling exists, but the district's history of large GOP margins and upcoming June 1 filing deadline reinforce low flip risk, leaving Democrats at 13.5% amid national midterm uncertainties. August 4 primaries loom as the next catalyst.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트$31,233 거래량
$31,233 거래량
2026.11.03
공화당
85%
민주당
14%
$31,233 거래량
$31,233 거래량
2026.11.03
공화당
$18,560 거래량
85%
민주당
$12,673 거래량
14%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the KS-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Ron Estes' dominant position in the solidly Republican KS-04 district, rated Safe Republican by Cook Political Report with an R+12 Partisan Voter Index, underpins trader consensus pricing Republicans at 83.5% to retain the House seat. Estes, who secured 65% in the 2024 general election, filed for reelection in January 2026 and boasts $1.6 million cash on hand per March 31 finance reports, dwarfing the fragmented Democratic primary field of five candidates—including Chris Carmichael and Katy Tyndell, with combined cash under $200,000. No recent polling exists, but the district's history of large GOP margins and upcoming June 1 filing deadline reinforce low flip risk, leaving Democrats at 13.5% amid national midterm uncertainties. August 4 primaries loom as the next catalyst.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the KS-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
마켓 개설일: Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
거래량
$31,233종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the KS-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Ron Estes' dominant position in the solidly Republican KS-04 district, rated Safe Republican by Cook Political Report with an R+12 Partisan Voter Index, underpins trader consensus pricing Republicans at 83.5% to retain the House seat. Estes, who secured 65% in the 2024 general election, filed for reelection in January 2026 and boasts $1.6 million cash on hand per March 31 finance reports, dwarfing the fragmented Democratic primary field of five candidates—including Chris Carmichael and Katy Tyndell, with combined cash under $200,000. No recent polling exists, but the district's history of large GOP margins and upcoming June 1 filing deadline reinforce low flip risk, leaving Democrats at 13.5% amid national midterm uncertainties. August 4 primaries loom as the next catalyst.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the KS-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
거래량
$31,233종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Ron Estes' dominant position in the solidly Republican KS-04 district, rated Safe Republican by Cook Political Report with an R+12 Partisan Voter Index, underpins trader consensus pricing Republicans at 83.5% to retain the House seat. Estes, who secured 65% in the 2024 general election, filed for reelection in January 2026 and boasts $1.6 million cash on hand per March 31 finance reports, dwarfing the fragmented Democratic primary field of five candidates—including Chris Carmichael and Katy Tyndell, with combined cash under $200,000. No recent polling exists, but the district's history of large GOP margins and upcoming June 1 filing deadline reinforce low flip risk, leaving Democrats at 13.5% amid national midterm uncertainties. August 4 primaries loom as the next catalyst.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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