Kentucky's 4th congressional district maintains a strong Republican tilt rooted in its northeastern location along the Ohio River and consistent voting patterns in recent cycles, including an unopposed 2024 win by the incumbent. This positioning underpins the dominant market odds for a Republican general-election victory in 2026. The May 19 primary between incumbent Thomas Massie and Trump-endorsed challenger Ed Gallrein will determine the nominee, with the winner facing limited Democratic opposition from candidates like Jesse Brewer or Melissa Strange. Historical turnout, fundraising advantages, and the absence of competitive Democratic infrastructure in the district further reinforce the current trader consensus, though late developments such as primary outcomes or unusual turnout shifts could introduce limited volatility before November.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트$15,808 거래량
$15,808 거래량
2026.11.03
공화당
91%
민주당
9%
$15,808 거래량
$15,808 거래량
2026.11.03
공화당
$14,492 거래량
91%
민주당
$1,316 거래량
9%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the KY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Kentucky's 4th congressional district maintains a strong Republican tilt rooted in its northeastern location along the Ohio River and consistent voting patterns in recent cycles, including an unopposed 2024 win by the incumbent. This positioning underpins the dominant market odds for a Republican general-election victory in 2026. The May 19 primary between incumbent Thomas Massie and Trump-endorsed challenger Ed Gallrein will determine the nominee, with the winner facing limited Democratic opposition from candidates like Jesse Brewer or Melissa Strange. Historical turnout, fundraising advantages, and the absence of competitive Democratic infrastructure in the district further reinforce the current trader consensus, though late developments such as primary outcomes or unusual turnout shifts could introduce limited volatility before November.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the KY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
마켓 개설일: Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
거래량
$15,808종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the KY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Kentucky's 4th congressional district maintains a strong Republican tilt rooted in its northeastern location along the Ohio River and consistent voting patterns in recent cycles, including an unopposed 2024 win by the incumbent. This positioning underpins the dominant market odds for a Republican general-election victory in 2026. The May 19 primary between incumbent Thomas Massie and Trump-endorsed challenger Ed Gallrein will determine the nominee, with the winner facing limited Democratic opposition from candidates like Jesse Brewer or Melissa Strange. Historical turnout, fundraising advantages, and the absence of competitive Democratic infrastructure in the district further reinforce the current trader consensus, though late developments such as primary outcomes or unusual turnout shifts could introduce limited volatility before November.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the KY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
거래량
$15,808종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Kentucky's 4th congressional district maintains a strong Republican tilt rooted in its northeastern location along the Ohio River and consistent voting patterns in recent cycles, including an unopposed 2024 win by the incumbent. This positioning underpins the dominant market odds for a Republican general-election victory in 2026. The May 19 primary between incumbent Thomas Massie and Trump-endorsed challenger Ed Gallrein will determine the nominee, with the winner facing limited Democratic opposition from candidates like Jesse Brewer or Melissa Strange. Historical turnout, fundraising advantages, and the absence of competitive Democratic infrastructure in the district further reinforce the current trader consensus, though late developments such as primary outcomes or unusual turnout shifts could introduce limited volatility before November.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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