Incumbent Democrat Glenn Ivey's reelection bid in Maryland's 4th Congressional District drives the strong trader consensus favoring Democrats at over 90%, reflecting the district's D+40 partisan lean per recent analyses and Cook Political Report's Solid Democratic rating. No credible Republican challenger has filed ahead of the June 23, 2026, primaries, leaving the GOP path-to-victory reliant on an unproven recruit amid historical incumbency advantages in deep-blue seats, where similar districts see reelection rates above 95%. Absent major catalysts like a primary upset for Ivey, personal scandal, health issues, or a national Republican wave, the odds remain heavily tilted; late developments before November could narrow the gap if a strong GOP contender emerges post-primary.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트$23,185 거래량
$23,185 거래량
2026.11.03
민주당
93%
공화당
7%
$23,185 거래량
$23,185 거래량
2026.11.03
민주당
$7,857 거래량
93%
공화당
$15,328 거래량
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MD-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Glenn Ivey's reelection bid in Maryland's 4th Congressional District drives the strong trader consensus favoring Democrats at over 90%, reflecting the district's D+40 partisan lean per recent analyses and Cook Political Report's Solid Democratic rating. No credible Republican challenger has filed ahead of the June 23, 2026, primaries, leaving the GOP path-to-victory reliant on an unproven recruit amid historical incumbency advantages in deep-blue seats, where similar districts see reelection rates above 95%. Absent major catalysts like a primary upset for Ivey, personal scandal, health issues, or a national Republican wave, the odds remain heavily tilted; late developments before November could narrow the gap if a strong GOP contender emerges post-primary.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MD-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
마켓 개설일: Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
거래량
$23,185종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MD-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Glenn Ivey's reelection bid in Maryland's 4th Congressional District drives the strong trader consensus favoring Democrats at over 90%, reflecting the district's D+40 partisan lean per recent analyses and Cook Political Report's Solid Democratic rating. No credible Republican challenger has filed ahead of the June 23, 2026, primaries, leaving the GOP path-to-victory reliant on an unproven recruit amid historical incumbency advantages in deep-blue seats, where similar districts see reelection rates above 95%. Absent major catalysts like a primary upset for Ivey, personal scandal, health issues, or a national Republican wave, the odds remain heavily tilted; late developments before November could narrow the gap if a strong GOP contender emerges post-primary.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MD-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
거래량
$23,185종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Glenn Ivey's reelection bid in Maryland's 4th Congressional District drives the strong trader consensus favoring Democrats at over 90%, reflecting the district's D+40 partisan lean per recent analyses and Cook Political Report's Solid Democratic rating. No credible Republican challenger has filed ahead of the June 23, 2026, primaries, leaving the GOP path-to-victory reliant on an unproven recruit amid historical incumbency advantages in deep-blue seats, where similar districts see reelection rates above 95%. Absent major catalysts like a primary upset for Ivey, personal scandal, health issues, or a national Republican wave, the odds remain heavily tilted; late developments before November could narrow the gap if a strong GOP contender emerges post-primary.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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