Maryland’s 5th congressional district remains a structurally Democratic stronghold, with a Partisan Voter Index of D+17 and consistent general-election margins exceeding 30 points for the party in recent cycles. Steny Hoyer’s January 2025 retirement opened the seat, triggering a crowded Democratic primary on June 23, 2026, yet the general-election outcome is viewed as a near-certainty by traders because no Republican candidate has demonstrated the fundraising, name recognition, or crossover appeal needed to compete in this southern-Maryland and Prince George’s County-based constituency. Historical turnout patterns, the absence of competitive polling, and the district’s demographic profile reinforce the current 94.5 percent implied probability. Only a national Republican wave election of unusual magnitude, a late-developing scandal involving the Democratic nominee, or an unanticipated shift in early voting could realistically alter the result.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트$15,916 거래량
$15,916 거래량
2026.11.03
Democratic Party
95%
Republican Party
4%
$15,916 거래량
$15,916 거래량
2026.11.03
Democratic Party
$8,508 거래량
95%
Republican Party
$7,408 거래량
4%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MD-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Maryland’s 5th congressional district remains a structurally Democratic stronghold, with a Partisan Voter Index of D+17 and consistent general-election margins exceeding 30 points for the party in recent cycles. Steny Hoyer’s January 2025 retirement opened the seat, triggering a crowded Democratic primary on June 23, 2026, yet the general-election outcome is viewed as a near-certainty by traders because no Republican candidate has demonstrated the fundraising, name recognition, or crossover appeal needed to compete in this southern-Maryland and Prince George’s County-based constituency. Historical turnout patterns, the absence of competitive polling, and the district’s demographic profile reinforce the current 94.5 percent implied probability. Only a national Republican wave election of unusual magnitude, a late-developing scandal involving the Democratic nominee, or an unanticipated shift in early voting could realistically alter the result.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MD-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
마켓 개설일: Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
거래량
$15,916종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MD-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Maryland’s 5th congressional district remains a structurally Democratic stronghold, with a Partisan Voter Index of D+17 and consistent general-election margins exceeding 30 points for the party in recent cycles. Steny Hoyer’s January 2025 retirement opened the seat, triggering a crowded Democratic primary on June 23, 2026, yet the general-election outcome is viewed as a near-certainty by traders because no Republican candidate has demonstrated the fundraising, name recognition, or crossover appeal needed to compete in this southern-Maryland and Prince George’s County-based constituency. Historical turnout patterns, the absence of competitive polling, and the district’s demographic profile reinforce the current 94.5 percent implied probability. Only a national Republican wave election of unusual magnitude, a late-developing scandal involving the Democratic nominee, or an unanticipated shift in early voting could realistically alter the result.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MD-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
거래량
$15,916종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Maryland’s 5th congressional district remains a structurally Democratic stronghold, with a Partisan Voter Index of D+17 and consistent general-election margins exceeding 30 points for the party in recent cycles. Steny Hoyer’s January 2025 retirement opened the seat, triggering a crowded Democratic primary on June 23, 2026, yet the general-election outcome is viewed as a near-certainty by traders because no Republican candidate has demonstrated the fundraising, name recognition, or crossover appeal needed to compete in this southern-Maryland and Prince George’s County-based constituency. Historical turnout patterns, the absence of competitive polling, and the district’s demographic profile reinforce the current 94.5 percent implied probability. Only a national Republican wave election of unusual magnitude, a late-developing scandal involving the Democratic nominee, or an unanticipated shift in early voting could realistically alter the result.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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