Incumbent Rep. Jamie Raskin's commanding trader consensus in the MD-08 House race stems from the district's deep Democratic lean, with a Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+30, ensuring large general election margins historically. Raskin, seeking a sixth term after decisively defeating Republican Cheryl Riley in 2024, filed for reelection in February 2026 amid a low-profile Democratic primary on June 23 featuring minor challengers like J.D. Kumar. Riley, the likely GOP nominee, remains active but faces steep structural barriers in this Montgomery County-heavy battleground. Odds at 93.5% Democratic reflect skin-in-the-game assessments of incumbency advantage and base turnout reliability ahead of the November 3 general election. Realistic shifts would require Raskin's withdrawal, a major scandal, health issue, or extraordinary national Republican midterm wave.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트$14,356 거래량
$14,356 거래량
2026.11.03
Democratic Party
94%
Republican Party
7%
$14,356 거래량
$14,356 거래량
2026.11.03
Democratic Party
$6,416 거래량
94%
Republican Party
$7,939 거래량
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MD-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rep. Jamie Raskin's commanding trader consensus in the MD-08 House race stems from the district's deep Democratic lean, with a Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+30, ensuring large general election margins historically. Raskin, seeking a sixth term after decisively defeating Republican Cheryl Riley in 2024, filed for reelection in February 2026 amid a low-profile Democratic primary on June 23 featuring minor challengers like J.D. Kumar. Riley, the likely GOP nominee, remains active but faces steep structural barriers in this Montgomery County-heavy battleground. Odds at 93.5% Democratic reflect skin-in-the-game assessments of incumbency advantage and base turnout reliability ahead of the November 3 general election. Realistic shifts would require Raskin's withdrawal, a major scandal, health issue, or extraordinary national Republican midterm wave.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MD-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
마켓 개설일: Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
거래량
$14,356종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MD-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rep. Jamie Raskin's commanding trader consensus in the MD-08 House race stems from the district's deep Democratic lean, with a Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+30, ensuring large general election margins historically. Raskin, seeking a sixth term after decisively defeating Republican Cheryl Riley in 2024, filed for reelection in February 2026 amid a low-profile Democratic primary on June 23 featuring minor challengers like J.D. Kumar. Riley, the likely GOP nominee, remains active but faces steep structural barriers in this Montgomery County-heavy battleground. Odds at 93.5% Democratic reflect skin-in-the-game assessments of incumbency advantage and base turnout reliability ahead of the November 3 general election. Realistic shifts would require Raskin's withdrawal, a major scandal, health issue, or extraordinary national Republican midterm wave.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MD-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
거래량
$14,356종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Rep. Jamie Raskin's commanding trader consensus in the MD-08 House race stems from the district's deep Democratic lean, with a Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+30, ensuring large general election margins historically. Raskin, seeking a sixth term after decisively defeating Republican Cheryl Riley in 2024, filed for reelection in February 2026 amid a low-profile Democratic primary on June 23 featuring minor challengers like J.D. Kumar. Riley, the likely GOP nominee, remains active but faces steep structural barriers in this Montgomery County-heavy battleground. Odds at 93.5% Democratic reflect skin-in-the-game assessments of incumbency advantage and base turnout reliability ahead of the November 3 general election. Realistic shifts would require Raskin's withdrawal, a major scandal, health issue, or extraordinary national Republican midterm wave.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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