Current observational data from NOAA and USGS indicate typical seasonal patterns through mid-2026 with no extreme deviations in seismic, atmospheric, or oceanic activity that would qualify as a major natural disaster under standard resolution criteria. Average hurricane season projections from the National Hurricane Center point to normal storm counts and intensities, while global temperature and ENSO indices remain within historical ranges without triggering widespread extremes. These conditions underpin the 73% market-implied probability for "No," reflecting trader assessment of low likelihood for qualifying events by year-end absent unexpected model shifts or late-season developments.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트예
$218,631 거래량
$218,631 거래량
2026.12.31
예
$218,631 거래량
$218,631 거래량
2026.12.31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Current observational data from NOAA and USGS indicate typical seasonal patterns through mid-2026 with no extreme deviations in seismic, atmospheric, or oceanic activity that would qualify as a major natural disaster under standard resolution criteria. Average hurricane season projections from the National Hurricane Center point to normal storm counts and intensities, while global temperature and ENSO indices remain within historical ranges without triggering widespread extremes. These conditions underpin the 73% market-implied probability for "No," reflecting trader assessment of low likelihood for qualifying events by year-end absent unexpected model shifts or late-season developments.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
마켓 개설일: Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ET
거래량
$218,631종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Current observational data from NOAA and USGS indicate typical seasonal patterns through mid-2026 with no extreme deviations in seismic, atmospheric, or oceanic activity that would qualify as a major natural disaster under standard resolution criteria. Average hurricane season projections from the National Hurricane Center point to normal storm counts and intensities, while global temperature and ENSO indices remain within historical ranges without triggering widespread extremes. These conditions underpin the 73% market-implied probability for "No," reflecting trader assessment of low likelihood for qualifying events by year-end absent unexpected model shifts or late-season developments.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
거래량
$218,631종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Current observational data from NOAA and USGS indicate typical seasonal patterns through mid-2026 with no extreme deviations in seismic, atmospheric, or oceanic activity that would qualify as a major natural disaster under standard resolution criteria. Average hurricane season projections from the National Hurricane Center point to normal storm counts and intensities, while global temperature and ENSO indices remain within historical ranges without triggering widespread extremes. These conditions underpin the 73% market-implied probability for "No," reflecting trader assessment of low likelihood for qualifying events by year-end absent unexpected model shifts or late-season developments.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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