Traders currently price a 73% probability that no qualifying natural disaster will occur in 2026, reflecting baseline climatological and seismic rates from NOAA and USGS monitoring rather than any elevated near-term threat. Long-range ENSO-neutral conditions and typical global temperature anomalies support average hurricane, earthquake, and wildfire frequencies without crossing the specific magnitude, landfall, or impact thresholds that resolve the market. Historical analogs show such events occur annually, yet the implied odds rest on the strict criteria traders expect to govern settlement, with limited model consensus currently indicating deviations. Seasonal forecast updates from the National Hurricane Center and ongoing USGS seismic bulletins remain the next key data releases that could shift positioning.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트예
$218,251 거래량
$218,251 거래량
2026.12.31
예
$218,251 거래량
$218,251 거래량
2026.12.31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Traders currently price a 73% probability that no qualifying natural disaster will occur in 2026, reflecting baseline climatological and seismic rates from NOAA and USGS monitoring rather than any elevated near-term threat. Long-range ENSO-neutral conditions and typical global temperature anomalies support average hurricane, earthquake, and wildfire frequencies without crossing the specific magnitude, landfall, or impact thresholds that resolve the market. Historical analogs show such events occur annually, yet the implied odds rest on the strict criteria traders expect to govern settlement, with limited model consensus currently indicating deviations. Seasonal forecast updates from the National Hurricane Center and ongoing USGS seismic bulletins remain the next key data releases that could shift positioning.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
마켓 개설일: Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ET
거래량
$218,251종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Traders currently price a 73% probability that no qualifying natural disaster will occur in 2026, reflecting baseline climatological and seismic rates from NOAA and USGS monitoring rather than any elevated near-term threat. Long-range ENSO-neutral conditions and typical global temperature anomalies support average hurricane, earthquake, and wildfire frequencies without crossing the specific magnitude, landfall, or impact thresholds that resolve the market. Historical analogs show such events occur annually, yet the implied odds rest on the strict criteria traders expect to govern settlement, with limited model consensus currently indicating deviations. Seasonal forecast updates from the National Hurricane Center and ongoing USGS seismic bulletins remain the next key data releases that could shift positioning.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
거래량
$218,251종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Traders currently price a 73% probability that no qualifying natural disaster will occur in 2026, reflecting baseline climatological and seismic rates from NOAA and USGS monitoring rather than any elevated near-term threat. Long-range ENSO-neutral conditions and typical global temperature anomalies support average hurricane, earthquake, and wildfire frequencies without crossing the specific magnitude, landfall, or impact thresholds that resolve the market. Historical analogs show such events occur annually, yet the implied odds rest on the strict criteria traders expect to govern settlement, with limited model consensus currently indicating deviations. Seasonal forecast updates from the National Hurricane Center and ongoing USGS seismic bulletins remain the next key data releases that could shift positioning.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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