Current global surveillance data from the WHO and CDC show no active outbreaks with sustained human-to-human transmission capable of reaching pandemic scale by year-end. Recent minor events, including a limited Andes hantavirus cluster on a cruise ship and ongoing monitoring of avian influenza and mpox clades, remain geographically contained with low secondary spread risk. Post-COVID recovery, funding constraints, and incomplete implementation of the 2025 Pandemic Agreement introduce preparedness gaps, yet these factors have not triggered the rapid emergence thresholds historically required for a new pandemic declaration. Trader consensus at 89.5% for “No” aligns with the absence of novel pathogen signals in official reporting systems through mid-May, while upcoming WHO World Health Assembly updates in late May could provide further clarity on surveillance trends.