The retirement of longtime Democratic incumbent Bonnie Watson Coleman has opened New Jersey’s 12th congressional district seat ahead of the November 3 general election, yet its D+13 partisan voting index and heavy concentration of Democratic voters in Mercer, Middlesex, Somerset, and Union counties sustain a commanding structural advantage. A crowded June 2 Democratic primary featuring 13 candidates is consolidating behind leading contenders such as Army veteran Adam Hamawy following substantial super PAC support and endorsements, while only a single Republican has filed. This limited opposition and the district’s historical voting patterns underpin the current 91.5% implied probability for Democrats. A national Republican wave or post-primary scandal involving the eventual nominee remain the primary variables that could narrow the gap, though both face steep barriers in the district’s electoral math.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트$12,763 거래량
$12,763 거래량
2026.11.03
민주당
92%
공화당
8%
$12,763 거래량
$12,763 거래량
2026.11.03
민주당
$10,645 거래량
92%
공화당
$2,117 거래량
8%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The retirement of longtime Democratic incumbent Bonnie Watson Coleman has opened New Jersey’s 12th congressional district seat ahead of the November 3 general election, yet its D+13 partisan voting index and heavy concentration of Democratic voters in Mercer, Middlesex, Somerset, and Union counties sustain a commanding structural advantage. A crowded June 2 Democratic primary featuring 13 candidates is consolidating behind leading contenders such as Army veteran Adam Hamawy following substantial super PAC support and endorsements, while only a single Republican has filed. This limited opposition and the district’s historical voting patterns underpin the current 91.5% implied probability for Democrats. A national Republican wave or post-primary scandal involving the eventual nominee remain the primary variables that could narrow the gap, though both face steep barriers in the district’s electoral math.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
마켓 개설일: Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ET
거래량
$12,763종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The retirement of longtime Democratic incumbent Bonnie Watson Coleman has opened New Jersey’s 12th congressional district seat ahead of the November 3 general election, yet its D+13 partisan voting index and heavy concentration of Democratic voters in Mercer, Middlesex, Somerset, and Union counties sustain a commanding structural advantage. A crowded June 2 Democratic primary featuring 13 candidates is consolidating behind leading contenders such as Army veteran Adam Hamawy following substantial super PAC support and endorsements, while only a single Republican has filed. This limited opposition and the district’s historical voting patterns underpin the current 91.5% implied probability for Democrats. A national Republican wave or post-primary scandal involving the eventual nominee remain the primary variables that could narrow the gap, though both face steep barriers in the district’s electoral math.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
거래량
$12,763종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The retirement of longtime Democratic incumbent Bonnie Watson Coleman has opened New Jersey’s 12th congressional district seat ahead of the November 3 general election, yet its D+13 partisan voting index and heavy concentration of Democratic voters in Mercer, Middlesex, Somerset, and Union counties sustain a commanding structural advantage. A crowded June 2 Democratic primary featuring 13 candidates is consolidating behind leading contenders such as Army veteran Adam Hamawy following substantial super PAC support and endorsements, while only a single Republican has filed. This limited opposition and the district’s historical voting patterns underpin the current 91.5% implied probability for Democrats. A national Republican wave or post-primary scandal involving the eventual nominee remain the primary variables that could narrow the gap, though both face steep barriers in the district’s electoral math.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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