Incumbent Rep. Nick LaLota's unopposed path in the June 23 Republican primary, combined with his dominant fundraising—over $3 million cash on hand—positions the Republican Party as trader consensus favorite at 48% in this R+4 district, where he secured 55% in 2024 amid a narrow GOP House majority. Democratic Party odds at 23% reflect a fragmented five-candidate primary led modestly by Christopher Gallant, with no clear frontrunner or recent polls shifting sentiment, as Cook Political rates the seat Solid Republican and Democrats prioritize competitive targets elsewhere. No notable developments have occurred in the past 30 days, leaving probabilities tied to primary results and midterm national trends.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트$20,232 거래량
$20,232 거래량
2026.11.03
공화당
63%
민주당
21%
$20,232 거래량
$20,232 거래량
2026.11.03
공화당
$6,326 거래량
63%
민주당
$13,906 거래량
21%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rep. Nick LaLota's unopposed path in the June 23 Republican primary, combined with his dominant fundraising—over $3 million cash on hand—positions the Republican Party as trader consensus favorite at 48% in this R+4 district, where he secured 55% in 2024 amid a narrow GOP House majority. Democratic Party odds at 23% reflect a fragmented five-candidate primary led modestly by Christopher Gallant, with no clear frontrunner or recent polls shifting sentiment, as Cook Political rates the seat Solid Republican and Democrats prioritize competitive targets elsewhere. No notable developments have occurred in the past 30 days, leaving probabilities tied to primary results and midterm national trends.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
마켓 개설일: Jan 28, 2026, 11:22 AM ET
거래량
$20,232종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 28, 2026, 11:22 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rep. Nick LaLota's unopposed path in the June 23 Republican primary, combined with his dominant fundraising—over $3 million cash on hand—positions the Republican Party as trader consensus favorite at 48% in this R+4 district, where he secured 55% in 2024 amid a narrow GOP House majority. Democratic Party odds at 23% reflect a fragmented five-candidate primary led modestly by Christopher Gallant, with no clear frontrunner or recent polls shifting sentiment, as Cook Political rates the seat Solid Republican and Democrats prioritize competitive targets elsewhere. No notable developments have occurred in the past 30 days, leaving probabilities tied to primary results and midterm national trends.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
거래량
$20,232종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 28, 2026, 11:22 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Rep. Nick LaLota's unopposed path in the June 23 Republican primary, combined with his dominant fundraising—over $3 million cash on hand—positions the Republican Party as trader consensus favorite at 48% in this R+4 district, where he secured 55% in 2024 amid a narrow GOP House majority. Democratic Party odds at 23% reflect a fragmented five-candidate primary led modestly by Christopher Gallant, with no clear frontrunner or recent polls shifting sentiment, as Cook Political rates the seat Solid Republican and Democrats prioritize competitive targets elsewhere. No notable developments have occurred in the past 30 days, leaving probabilities tied to primary results and midterm national trends.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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