Incumbent Rep. Madeleine Dean (D) dominates trader consensus at 92.5% implied probability to retain Pennsylvania's 4th Congressional District, a D+8 seat per Cook PVI ratings of Solid Democratic across forecasters. With no Democratic primary challengers ahead of May 19 and over $1.1 million cash on hand, Dean benefits from strong fundraising, Appropriations and Foreign Affairs committee roles, and consistent past victories exceeding 59% in generals. The Republican primary features only Aurora Stuski, with zero fundraising after Ismaine Ayouaz's withdrawal, underscoring the weak GOP field in this suburban Philadelphia battleground. Upsets remain possible via Dean scandal, health issues, or a massive midterm Republican wave favoring narrow House majority retention, though structural barriers loom large through November 3.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트신규
신규
2026.11.03
Democratic Party
93%
Republican Party
7%
신규
신규
2026.11.03
Democratic Party
$1,515 거래량
93%
Republican Party
$6,552 거래량
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rep. Madeleine Dean (D) dominates trader consensus at 92.5% implied probability to retain Pennsylvania's 4th Congressional District, a D+8 seat per Cook PVI ratings of Solid Democratic across forecasters. With no Democratic primary challengers ahead of May 19 and over $1.1 million cash on hand, Dean benefits from strong fundraising, Appropriations and Foreign Affairs committee roles, and consistent past victories exceeding 59% in generals. The Republican primary features only Aurora Stuski, with zero fundraising after Ismaine Ayouaz's withdrawal, underscoring the weak GOP field in this suburban Philadelphia battleground. Upsets remain possible via Dean scandal, health issues, or a massive midterm Republican wave favoring narrow House majority retention, though structural barriers loom large through November 3.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
마켓 개설일: Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
거래량
$8,067종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rep. Madeleine Dean (D) dominates trader consensus at 92.5% implied probability to retain Pennsylvania's 4th Congressional District, a D+8 seat per Cook PVI ratings of Solid Democratic across forecasters. With no Democratic primary challengers ahead of May 19 and over $1.1 million cash on hand, Dean benefits from strong fundraising, Appropriations and Foreign Affairs committee roles, and consistent past victories exceeding 59% in generals. The Republican primary features only Aurora Stuski, with zero fundraising after Ismaine Ayouaz's withdrawal, underscoring the weak GOP field in this suburban Philadelphia battleground. Upsets remain possible via Dean scandal, health issues, or a massive midterm Republican wave favoring narrow House majority retention, though structural barriers loom large through November 3.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
거래량
$8,067종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Rep. Madeleine Dean (D) dominates trader consensus at 92.5% implied probability to retain Pennsylvania's 4th Congressional District, a D+8 seat per Cook PVI ratings of Solid Democratic across forecasters. With no Democratic primary challengers ahead of May 19 and over $1.1 million cash on hand, Dean benefits from strong fundraising, Appropriations and Foreign Affairs committee roles, and consistent past victories exceeding 59% in generals. The Republican primary features only Aurora Stuski, with zero fundraising after Ismaine Ayouaz's withdrawal, underscoring the weak GOP field in this suburban Philadelphia battleground. Upsets remain possible via Dean scandal, health issues, or a massive midterm Republican wave favoring narrow House majority retention, though structural barriers loom large through November 3.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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