Persistent Democratic leads on generic ballot polls, averaging around five points in recent surveys like ABC/Washington Post and Economist/YouGov, combined with historical midterm losses for the president's party—typically 25-30 House seats—anchor trader consensus toward Republican seat totals below 200, led by below 190 at 25.5%. Sabato's Crystal Ball ratings updated May 8 highlight more GOP-held battleground districts in play amid Trump administration headwinds, while Race to the White House models give Democrats a 73% chance of majority despite recent GOP boosts from court-upheld gerrymanders in Florida, Virginia, and other states lifting 210+ bins. Key differentiators include vulnerable Republican incumbents in swing districts versus structural map advantages; consolidation behind higher outcomes could follow economic recovery signals or Democratic primary chaos, with primaries starting summer 2026 as pivotal catalysts.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트190석 미만 26%
190-194 13%
200-204 12.5%
195-199 12%
$231,623 거래량
$231,623 거래량
2026.11.03
190석 미만
26%
190-194
13%
195-199
12%
200-204
13%
205-209
10%
210-214
10%
215-219
11%
220-224
8%
225-229
2%
230석 이상
1%
190석 미만 26%
190-194 13%
200-204 12.5%
195-199 12%
$231,623 거래량
$231,623 거래량
2026.11.03
190석 미만
$16,529 거래량
26%
190-194
$7,832 거래량
13%
195-199
$27,848 거래량
12%
200-204
$22,075 거래량
13%
205-209
$35,318 거래량
10%
210-214
$12,766 거래량
10%
215-219
$7,951 거래량
11%
220-224
$53,608 거래량
8%
225-229
$21,300 거래량
2%
230석 이상
$26,397 거래량
1%
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.
This market will resolve based on the results of all US House of Representatives elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all US House of Representatives elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.Persistent Democratic leads on generic ballot polls, averaging around five points in recent surveys like ABC/Washington Post and Economist/YouGov, combined with historical midterm losses for the president's party—typically 25-30 House seats—anchor trader consensus toward Republican seat totals below 200, led by below 190 at 25.5%. Sabato's Crystal Ball ratings updated May 8 highlight more GOP-held battleground districts in play amid Trump administration headwinds, while Race to the White House models give Democrats a 73% chance of majority despite recent GOP boosts from court-upheld gerrymanders in Florida, Virginia, and other states lifting 210+ bins. Key differentiators include vulnerable Republican incumbents in swing districts versus structural map advantages; consolidation behind higher outcomes could follow economic recovery signals or Democratic primary chaos, with primaries starting summer 2026 as pivotal catalysts.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.
This market will resolve based on the results of all US House of Representatives elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all US House of Representatives elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.
This market will resolve based on the results of all US House of Representatives elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all US House of Representatives elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
마켓 개설일: Dec 18, 2025, 8:56 PM ET
거래량
$231,623종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Dec 18, 2025, 8:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.
This market will resolve based on the results of all US House of Representatives elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all US House of Representatives elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.Persistent Democratic leads on generic ballot polls, averaging around five points in recent surveys like ABC/Washington Post and Economist/YouGov, combined with historical midterm losses for the president's party—typically 25-30 House seats—anchor trader consensus toward Republican seat totals below 200, led by below 190 at 25.5%. Sabato's Crystal Ball ratings updated May 8 highlight more GOP-held battleground districts in play amid Trump administration headwinds, while Race to the White House models give Democrats a 73% chance of majority despite recent GOP boosts from court-upheld gerrymanders in Florida, Virginia, and other states lifting 210+ bins. Key differentiators include vulnerable Republican incumbents in swing districts versus structural map advantages; consolidation behind higher outcomes could follow economic recovery signals or Democratic primary chaos, with primaries starting summer 2026 as pivotal catalysts.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.
This market will resolve based on the results of all US House of Representatives elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all US House of Representatives elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.
This market will resolve based on the results of all US House of Representatives elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all US House of Representatives elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
거래량
$231,623종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Dec 18, 2025, 8:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Persistent Democratic leads on generic ballot polls, averaging around five points in recent surveys like ABC/Washington Post and Economist/YouGov, combined with historical midterm losses for the president's party—typically 25-30 House seats—anchor trader consensus toward Republican seat totals below 200, led by below 190 at 25.5%. Sabato's Crystal Ball ratings updated May 8 highlight more GOP-held battleground districts in play amid Trump administration headwinds, while Race to the White House models give Democrats a 73% chance of majority despite recent GOP boosts from court-upheld gerrymanders in Florida, Virginia, and other states lifting 210+ bins. Key differentiators include vulnerable Republican incumbents in swing districts versus structural map advantages; consolidation behind higher outcomes could follow economic recovery signals or Democratic primary chaos, with primaries starting summer 2026 as pivotal catalysts.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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