The tight Texas Senate Republican primary runoff between incumbent John Cornyn and Attorney General Ken Paxton remains statistically tied in recent polling, with Paxton holding a slim edge among likely voters as the May 26 election nears. Cornyn's substantial spending advantage has funded widespread negative advertising focused on Paxton's record, yet voter preferences have largely solidified from the March primary, leaving few undecideds to shift the outcome. This dynamic, combined with Paxton's stronger appeal to the party's conservative base and the absence of a decisive late endorsement, sustains the competitive positioning reflected in current market pricing across narrow victory margins. Key factors that could widen the gap include final-week turnout differentials or any last-minute developments altering voter mobilization in battleground counties.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트팩스턴 6–9% 23%
코닌 <3% 21.0%
팍스턴 9% 이상 16.2%
팩스턴 3–6% 14%
$59,275 거래량
$59,275 거래량
2026.05.25
팍스턴 9% 이상
16%
팩스턴 6–9%
23%
팩스턴 3–6%
14%
팩스턴 <3%
11%
코닌 <3%
21%
Cornyn 3–6%
7%
코닌 6–9%
5%
Cornyn 9%+
10%
팩스턴 6–9% 23%
코닌 <3% 21.0%
팍스턴 9% 이상 16.2%
팩스턴 3–6% 14%
$59,275 거래량
$59,275 거래량
2026.05.25
팍스턴 9% 이상
$11,914 거래량
16%
팩스턴 6–9%
$6,727 거래량
23%
팩스턴 3–6%
$5,750 거래량
14%
팩스턴 <3%
$7,085 거래량
11%
코닌 <3%
$5,174 거래량
21%
Cornyn 3–6%
$5,243 거래량
7%
코닌 6–9%
$5,306 거래량
5%
Cornyn 9%+
$12,076 거래량
10%
The Texas Senate Republican primary runoff election is scheduled for May 26, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket (ascending).
If two candidates receive the same number of valid votes, this market will resolve according to the candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Texas, such as official statewide results published by the Texas Secretary of State (https://elections.sos.state.tx.us/index.htm); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.The tight Texas Senate Republican primary runoff between incumbent John Cornyn and Attorney General Ken Paxton remains statistically tied in recent polling, with Paxton holding a slim edge among likely voters as the May 26 election nears. Cornyn's substantial spending advantage has funded widespread negative advertising focused on Paxton's record, yet voter preferences have largely solidified from the March primary, leaving few undecideds to shift the outcome. This dynamic, combined with Paxton's stronger appeal to the party's conservative base and the absence of a decisive late endorsement, sustains the competitive positioning reflected in current market pricing across narrow victory margins. Key factors that could widen the gap include final-week turnout differentials or any last-minute developments altering voter mobilization in battleground counties.
The Texas Senate Republican primary runoff election is scheduled for May 26, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket (ascending).
If two candidates receive the same number of valid votes, this market will resolve according to the candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Texas, such as official statewide results published by the Texas Secretary of State (https://elections.sos.state.tx.us/index.htm); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket (ascending).
If two candidates receive the same number of valid votes, this market will resolve according to the candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Texas, such as official statewide results published by the Texas Secretary of State (https://elections.sos.state.tx.us/index.htm); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
마켓 개설일: Mar 4, 2026, 12:46 PM ET
거래량
$59,275종료일
2026.05.25마켓 개설일
Mar 4, 2026, 12:46 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Texas Senate Republican primary runoff election is scheduled for May 26, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket (ascending).
If two candidates receive the same number of valid votes, this market will resolve according to the candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Texas, such as official statewide results published by the Texas Secretary of State (https://elections.sos.state.tx.us/index.htm); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.The tight Texas Senate Republican primary runoff between incumbent John Cornyn and Attorney General Ken Paxton remains statistically tied in recent polling, with Paxton holding a slim edge among likely voters as the May 26 election nears. Cornyn's substantial spending advantage has funded widespread negative advertising focused on Paxton's record, yet voter preferences have largely solidified from the March primary, leaving few undecideds to shift the outcome. This dynamic, combined with Paxton's stronger appeal to the party's conservative base and the absence of a decisive late endorsement, sustains the competitive positioning reflected in current market pricing across narrow victory margins. Key factors that could widen the gap include final-week turnout differentials or any last-minute developments altering voter mobilization in battleground counties.
The Texas Senate Republican primary runoff election is scheduled for May 26, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket (ascending).
If two candidates receive the same number of valid votes, this market will resolve according to the candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Texas, such as official statewide results published by the Texas Secretary of State (https://elections.sos.state.tx.us/index.htm); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket (ascending).
If two candidates receive the same number of valid votes, this market will resolve according to the candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Texas, such as official statewide results published by the Texas Secretary of State (https://elections.sos.state.tx.us/index.htm); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
거래량
$59,275종료일
2026.05.25마켓 개설일
Mar 4, 2026, 12:46 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The tight Texas Senate Republican primary runoff between incumbent John Cornyn and Attorney General Ken Paxton remains statistically tied in recent polling, with Paxton holding a slim edge among likely voters as the May 26 election nears. Cornyn's substantial spending advantage has funded widespread negative advertising focused on Paxton's record, yet voter preferences have largely solidified from the March primary, leaving few undecideds to shift the outcome. This dynamic, combined with Paxton's stronger appeal to the party's conservative base and the absence of a decisive late endorsement, sustains the competitive positioning reflected in current market pricing across narrow victory margins. Key factors that could widen the gap include final-week turnout differentials or any last-minute developments altering voter mobilization in battleground counties.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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