The fragile ceasefire between Thailand and Cambodia, established in late December 2025 after two rounds of border clashes involving artillery, rockets, and Thai air strikes, has remained intact into May 2026 despite persistent tensions along the disputed 817-kilometer frontier. Recent diplomatic efforts, including a May 7 leaders' meeting on the sidelines of ASEAN talks, focused on trust-building measures and resuming negotiations over claimed territories, with Cambodia calling for Thai withdrawal from disputed areas. Thai security assessments in February highlighted risks of renewed escalation amid reported Cambodian military procurements, yet no new strikes or major incidents have materialized. Traders weigh the durability of the truce and scheduled border discussions against the potential for miscalculation or violations to shift probabilities.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트$68,875 거래량
2026.06.30
2026년 6월 30일
7%
$68,875 거래량
2026년 6월 30일
$24,462 거래량
7%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Thailand initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Cambodian soil or any Cambodian embassy or consulate by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Thai military forces that impact Cambodian ground territory or any official Cambodian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Cambodian soil is hit by an Thailand missile, this market will resolve to "Yes") that is officially acknowledged by the Thailand government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Cambodian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Thai ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If there is ambiguity as to whether a qualifying strike occurred, this market may remain open after resolution time for confirming evidence.The fragile ceasefire between Thailand and Cambodia, established in late December 2025 after two rounds of border clashes involving artillery, rockets, and Thai air strikes, has remained intact into May 2026 despite persistent tensions along the disputed 817-kilometer frontier. Recent diplomatic efforts, including a May 7 leaders' meeting on the sidelines of ASEAN talks, focused on trust-building measures and resuming negotiations over claimed territories, with Cambodia calling for Thai withdrawal from disputed areas. Thai security assessments in February highlighted risks of renewed escalation amid reported Cambodian military procurements, yet no new strikes or major incidents have materialized. Traders weigh the durability of the truce and scheduled border discussions against the potential for miscalculation or violations to shift probabilities.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Thailand initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Cambodian soil or any Cambodian embassy or consulate by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Thai military forces that impact Cambodian ground territory or any official Cambodian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Cambodian soil is hit by an Thailand missile, this market will resolve to "Yes") that is officially acknowledged by the Thailand government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Cambodian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Thai ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If there is ambiguity as to whether a qualifying strike occurred, this market may remain open after resolution time for confirming evidence.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Thai military forces that impact Cambodian ground territory or any official Cambodian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Cambodian soil is hit by an Thailand missile, this market will resolve to "Yes") that is officially acknowledged by the Thailand government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Cambodian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Thai ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If there is ambiguity as to whether a qualifying strike occurred, this market may remain open after resolution time for confirming evidence.
마켓 개설일: Dec 29, 2025, 4:45 PM ET
거래량
$68,875종료일
2026.06.30마켓 개설일
Dec 29, 2025, 4:45 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Thailand initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Cambodian soil or any Cambodian embassy or consulate by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Thai military forces that impact Cambodian ground territory or any official Cambodian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Cambodian soil is hit by an Thailand missile, this market will resolve to "Yes") that is officially acknowledged by the Thailand government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Cambodian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Thai ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If there is ambiguity as to whether a qualifying strike occurred, this market may remain open after resolution time for confirming evidence.The fragile ceasefire between Thailand and Cambodia, established in late December 2025 after two rounds of border clashes involving artillery, rockets, and Thai air strikes, has remained intact into May 2026 despite persistent tensions along the disputed 817-kilometer frontier. Recent diplomatic efforts, including a May 7 leaders' meeting on the sidelines of ASEAN talks, focused on trust-building measures and resuming negotiations over claimed territories, with Cambodia calling for Thai withdrawal from disputed areas. Thai security assessments in February highlighted risks of renewed escalation amid reported Cambodian military procurements, yet no new strikes or major incidents have materialized. Traders weigh the durability of the truce and scheduled border discussions against the potential for miscalculation or violations to shift probabilities.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Thailand initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Cambodian soil or any Cambodian embassy or consulate by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Thai military forces that impact Cambodian ground territory or any official Cambodian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Cambodian soil is hit by an Thailand missile, this market will resolve to "Yes") that is officially acknowledged by the Thailand government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Cambodian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Thai ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If there is ambiguity as to whether a qualifying strike occurred, this market may remain open after resolution time for confirming evidence.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Thai military forces that impact Cambodian ground territory or any official Cambodian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Cambodian soil is hit by an Thailand missile, this market will resolve to "Yes") that is officially acknowledged by the Thailand government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Cambodian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Thai ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If there is ambiguity as to whether a qualifying strike occurred, this market may remain open after resolution time for confirming evidence.
거래량
$68,875종료일
2026.06.30마켓 개설일
Dec 29, 2025, 4:45 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The fragile ceasefire between Thailand and Cambodia, established in late December 2025 after two rounds of border clashes involving artillery, rockets, and Thai air strikes, has remained intact into May 2026 despite persistent tensions along the disputed 817-kilometer frontier. Recent diplomatic efforts, including a May 7 leaders' meeting on the sidelines of ASEAN talks, focused on trust-building measures and resuming negotiations over claimed territories, with Cambodia calling for Thai withdrawal from disputed areas. Thai security assessments in February highlighted risks of renewed escalation amid reported Cambodian military procurements, yet no new strikes or major incidents have materialized. Traders weigh the durability of the truce and scheduled border discussions against the potential for miscalculation or violations to shift probabilities.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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