Republicans currently hold a narrow majority in the House of Representatives ahead of the 2026 midterm elections, with recent court rulings in Virginia and at the U.S. Supreme Court strengthening their position through favorable redistricting adjustments in key states. Limited vacancies from resignations and deaths have led to special elections, but these have occurred primarily in districts unlikely to produce net shifts sufficient to flip control. Historical patterns of midterm losses for the president's party remain relevant, yet the absence of major disruptive events or widespread seat flips in the current cycle supports the market's assessment that the majority will hold through November.