Trader consensus reflects a 93.5% implied probability against a U.S. invasion of Mexico in 2026, anchored by ongoing bilateral cooperation targeting cartels through intelligence sharing rather than military escalation. Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum ruled out U.S. intervention after direct talks with President Trump in January, emphasizing sovereignty while advancing Mexican-led raids, including the February killing of Jalisco New Generation Cartel leader El Mencho with U.S. intel support. Recent U.S. indictments of Mexican politicians and CIA assassination campaigns against cartel figures in April-May signal precise operations, not invasion. Trump's suggestions of ground strikes have met firm Mexican pushback and domestic U.S. warnings of diplomatic fallout, with joint border security efforts and multinational exercises prevailing amid no observable troop buildups.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트예
$106,324 거래량
$106,324 거래량
2026.12.31
예
$106,324 거래량
$106,324 거래량
2026.12.31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Mexican land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Mexico or the United States, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus reflects a 93.5% implied probability against a U.S. invasion of Mexico in 2026, anchored by ongoing bilateral cooperation targeting cartels through intelligence sharing rather than military escalation. Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum ruled out U.S. intervention after direct talks with President Trump in January, emphasizing sovereignty while advancing Mexican-led raids, including the February killing of Jalisco New Generation Cartel leader El Mencho with U.S. intel support. Recent U.S. indictments of Mexican politicians and CIA assassination campaigns against cartel figures in April-May signal precise operations, not invasion. Trump's suggestions of ground strikes have met firm Mexican pushback and domestic U.S. warnings of diplomatic fallout, with joint border security efforts and multinational exercises prevailing amid no observable troop buildups.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Mexican land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Mexico or the United States, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Mexico or the United States, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
마켓 개설일: Jan 5, 2026, 5:17 PM ET
거래량
$106,324종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Jan 5, 2026, 5:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Mexican land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Mexico or the United States, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus reflects a 93.5% implied probability against a U.S. invasion of Mexico in 2026, anchored by ongoing bilateral cooperation targeting cartels through intelligence sharing rather than military escalation. Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum ruled out U.S. intervention after direct talks with President Trump in January, emphasizing sovereignty while advancing Mexican-led raids, including the February killing of Jalisco New Generation Cartel leader El Mencho with U.S. intel support. Recent U.S. indictments of Mexican politicians and CIA assassination campaigns against cartel figures in April-May signal precise operations, not invasion. Trump's suggestions of ground strikes have met firm Mexican pushback and domestic U.S. warnings of diplomatic fallout, with joint border security efforts and multinational exercises prevailing amid no observable troop buildups.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Mexican land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Mexico or the United States, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Mexico or the United States, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
거래량
$106,324종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Jan 5, 2026, 5:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus reflects a 93.5% implied probability against a U.S. invasion of Mexico in 2026, anchored by ongoing bilateral cooperation targeting cartels through intelligence sharing rather than military escalation. Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum ruled out U.S. intervention after direct talks with President Trump in January, emphasizing sovereignty while advancing Mexican-led raids, including the February killing of Jalisco New Generation Cartel leader El Mencho with U.S. intel support. Recent U.S. indictments of Mexican politicians and CIA assassination campaigns against cartel figures in April-May signal precise operations, not invasion. Trump's suggestions of ground strikes have met firm Mexican pushback and domestic U.S. warnings of diplomatic fallout, with joint border security efforts and multinational exercises prevailing amid no observable troop buildups.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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