Trader consensus prices a 65% implied probability on Trump facing impeachment before his second term ends in January 2029, driven primarily by expectations of Democrats retaking the House in the 2026 midterms, where betting markets give them strong odds of flipping the chamber and advancing articles of impeachment as in Trump's first term. Recent catalysts include Representative Jamie Raskin's April 2026 bill strengthening the 25th Amendment, backed by over 80 House Democrats, and calls for impeachment following Trump's controversial foreign policy rhetoric on Iran and threats of escalation, amid polls showing majority public support for action. Falling presidential approval ratings and Trump's own January warning to Republicans about midterm losses leading to impeachment further bolster trader sentiment for a House vote post-November 2026, though Senate conviction remains unlikely without a supermajority.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트예
$62,283 거래량
$62,283 거래량
2029.01.20
예
$62,283 거래량
$62,283 거래량
2029.01.20
This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the US House of Representatives, by simple majority vote, approves or passes one or more articles of impeachment of President Donald Trump between market creation and January 20, 2029, at 12:00 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will be used.Trader consensus prices a 65% implied probability on Trump facing impeachment before his second term ends in January 2029, driven primarily by expectations of Democrats retaking the House in the 2026 midterms, where betting markets give them strong odds of flipping the chamber and advancing articles of impeachment as in Trump's first term. Recent catalysts include Representative Jamie Raskin's April 2026 bill strengthening the 25th Amendment, backed by over 80 House Democrats, and calls for impeachment following Trump's controversial foreign policy rhetoric on Iran and threats of escalation, amid polls showing majority public support for action. Falling presidential approval ratings and Trump's own January warning to Republicans about midterm losses leading to impeachment further bolster trader sentiment for a House vote post-November 2026, though Senate conviction remains unlikely without a supermajority.
This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the US House of Representatives, by simple majority vote, approves or passes one or more articles of impeachment of President Donald Trump between market creation and January 20, 2029, at 12:00 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will be used.
Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will be used.
마켓 개설일: Mar 19, 2026, 2:04 PM ET
거래량
$62,283종료일
2029.01.20마켓 개설일
Mar 19, 2026, 2:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the US House of Representatives, by simple majority vote, approves or passes one or more articles of impeachment of President Donald Trump between market creation and January 20, 2029, at 12:00 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will be used.Trader consensus prices a 65% implied probability on Trump facing impeachment before his second term ends in January 2029, driven primarily by expectations of Democrats retaking the House in the 2026 midterms, where betting markets give them strong odds of flipping the chamber and advancing articles of impeachment as in Trump's first term. Recent catalysts include Representative Jamie Raskin's April 2026 bill strengthening the 25th Amendment, backed by over 80 House Democrats, and calls for impeachment following Trump's controversial foreign policy rhetoric on Iran and threats of escalation, amid polls showing majority public support for action. Falling presidential approval ratings and Trump's own January warning to Republicans about midterm losses leading to impeachment further bolster trader sentiment for a House vote post-November 2026, though Senate conviction remains unlikely without a supermajority.
This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the US House of Representatives, by simple majority vote, approves or passes one or more articles of impeachment of President Donald Trump between market creation and January 20, 2029, at 12:00 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will be used.
Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will be used.
거래량
$62,283종료일
2029.01.20마켓 개설일
Mar 19, 2026, 2:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices a 65% implied probability on Trump facing impeachment before his second term ends in January 2029, driven primarily by expectations of Democrats retaking the House in the 2026 midterms, where betting markets give them strong odds of flipping the chamber and advancing articles of impeachment as in Trump's first term. Recent catalysts include Representative Jamie Raskin's April 2026 bill strengthening the 25th Amendment, backed by over 80 House Democrats, and calls for impeachment following Trump's controversial foreign policy rhetoric on Iran and threats of escalation, amid polls showing majority public support for action. Falling presidential approval ratings and Trump's own January warning to Republicans about midterm losses leading to impeachment further bolster trader sentiment for a House vote post-November 2026, though Senate conviction remains unlikely without a supermajority.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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