Polymarket traders price a 96.4% implied probability of "No" on Trump reducing the federal budget deficit before 2027—defined as December 2026 Monthly Treasury Statement showing a lower deficit than September 2025's $198 billion surplus—driven by persistent fiscal pressures from extended tax cuts slashing revenue and elevated spending amid CBO's February 2026 baseline projecting a $1.9 trillion FY2026 deficit (5.8% of GDP). Cumulative FY2026 deficits reached $955 billion through April, averaging $136 billion monthly versus historical December shortfalls exceeding $150 billion due to holiday outlays and weaker receipts. Tail risks include a post-midterm spending sequester or tariff revenue surge yielding an improbable December surplus exceeding September 2025 levels, though trader consensus dismisses such scenarios given FY2027 budget requests signaling further discretionary increases.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트신규
신규
2026.12.31
신규
신규
2026.12.31
The U.S. federal budget deficit for September 2025 was $197,949,630,362.16 (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) reports a lower monthly deficit in December 2026 than in September 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source will be the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury (fiscaldata.treasury.gov). The month surplus can be found in the column labeled "Current Month Deficit Surplus Amount" in the the table "Summary of Receipts, Outlays, and Surplus or Deficit” in the MTS (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government). If no report is published by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET another credible source will be used.Polymarket traders price a 96.4% implied probability of "No" on Trump reducing the federal budget deficit before 2027—defined as December 2026 Monthly Treasury Statement showing a lower deficit than September 2025's $198 billion surplus—driven by persistent fiscal pressures from extended tax cuts slashing revenue and elevated spending amid CBO's February 2026 baseline projecting a $1.9 trillion FY2026 deficit (5.8% of GDP). Cumulative FY2026 deficits reached $955 billion through April, averaging $136 billion monthly versus historical December shortfalls exceeding $150 billion due to holiday outlays and weaker receipts. Tail risks include a post-midterm spending sequester or tariff revenue surge yielding an improbable December surplus exceeding September 2025 levels, though trader consensus dismisses such scenarios given FY2027 budget requests signaling further discretionary increases.
The U.S. federal budget deficit for September 2025 was $197,949,630,362.16 (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) reports a lower monthly deficit in December 2026 than in September 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source will be the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury (fiscaldata.treasury.gov). The month surplus can be found in the column labeled "Current Month Deficit Surplus Amount" in the the table "Summary of Receipts, Outlays, and Surplus or Deficit” in the MTS (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government). If no report is published by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET another credible source will be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) reports a lower monthly deficit in December 2026 than in September 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source will be the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury (fiscaldata.treasury.gov). The month surplus can be found in the column labeled "Current Month Deficit Surplus Amount" in the the table "Summary of Receipts, Outlays, and Surplus or Deficit” in the MTS (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government). If no report is published by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET another credible source will be used.
마켓 개설일: Nov 5, 2025, 2:13 PM ET
거래량
$1,401종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Nov 5, 2025, 2:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The U.S. federal budget deficit for September 2025 was $197,949,630,362.16 (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) reports a lower monthly deficit in December 2026 than in September 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source will be the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury (fiscaldata.treasury.gov). The month surplus can be found in the column labeled "Current Month Deficit Surplus Amount" in the the table "Summary of Receipts, Outlays, and Surplus or Deficit” in the MTS (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government). If no report is published by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET another credible source will be used.Polymarket traders price a 96.4% implied probability of "No" on Trump reducing the federal budget deficit before 2027—defined as December 2026 Monthly Treasury Statement showing a lower deficit than September 2025's $198 billion surplus—driven by persistent fiscal pressures from extended tax cuts slashing revenue and elevated spending amid CBO's February 2026 baseline projecting a $1.9 trillion FY2026 deficit (5.8% of GDP). Cumulative FY2026 deficits reached $955 billion through April, averaging $136 billion monthly versus historical December shortfalls exceeding $150 billion due to holiday outlays and weaker receipts. Tail risks include a post-midterm spending sequester or tariff revenue surge yielding an improbable December surplus exceeding September 2025 levels, though trader consensus dismisses such scenarios given FY2027 budget requests signaling further discretionary increases.
The U.S. federal budget deficit for September 2025 was $197,949,630,362.16 (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) reports a lower monthly deficit in December 2026 than in September 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source will be the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury (fiscaldata.treasury.gov). The month surplus can be found in the column labeled "Current Month Deficit Surplus Amount" in the the table "Summary of Receipts, Outlays, and Surplus or Deficit” in the MTS (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government). If no report is published by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET another credible source will be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) reports a lower monthly deficit in December 2026 than in September 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source will be the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury (fiscaldata.treasury.gov). The month surplus can be found in the column labeled "Current Month Deficit Surplus Amount" in the the table "Summary of Receipts, Outlays, and Surplus or Deficit” in the MTS (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government). If no report is published by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET another credible source will be used.
거래량
$1,401종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Nov 5, 2025, 2:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Polymarket traders price a 96.4% implied probability of "No" on Trump reducing the federal budget deficit before 2027—defined as December 2026 Monthly Treasury Statement showing a lower deficit than September 2025's $198 billion surplus—driven by persistent fiscal pressures from extended tax cuts slashing revenue and elevated spending amid CBO's February 2026 baseline projecting a $1.9 trillion FY2026 deficit (5.8% of GDP). Cumulative FY2026 deficits reached $955 billion through April, averaging $136 billion monthly versus historical December shortfalls exceeding $150 billion due to holiday outlays and weaker receipts. Tail risks include a post-midterm spending sequester or tariff revenue surge yielding an improbable December surplus exceeding September 2025 levels, though trader consensus dismisses such scenarios given FY2027 budget requests signaling further discretionary increases.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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