Recent polls place the SPD around 15% in the September 20, 2026, Berlin state election, with the party competing in a fragmented field that includes the CDU, Greens, Linke, and AfD all clustered between roughly 15% and 20%. National SPD weakness, coalition fatigue from the current CDU-SPD government, and voter migration toward the Linke have capped gains, while local issues such as housing shortages and security concerns create modest upward pressure. The narrow spread across recent surveys keeps implied probabilities for the 13-16% and 16%+ ranges closely matched, reflecting uncertainty over final turnout and late campaign shifts among left-leaning voters. Clear separation would require sustained momentum in one direction—through stronger debate performances, notable endorsements, or unexpected federal developments—before election day.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoBerlin State Election: SPD Vote Share?
Berlin State Election: SPD Vote Share?
13-16% 47%
16%+ 38%
10-13% 34%
<10% 22%
NOWE
NOWE
Sep 20, 2026
<10%
22%
10-13%
34%
13-16%
47%
16%+
38%
13-16% 47%
16%+ 38%
10-13% 34%
<10% 22%
NOWE
NOWE
Sep 20, 2026
<10%
$0 Wol.
22%
10-13%
$0 Wol.
34%
13-16%
$0 Wol.
47%
16%+
$0 Wol.
38%
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by SPD in the specified election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).Recent polls place the SPD around 15% in the September 20, 2026, Berlin state election, with the party competing in a fragmented field that includes the CDU, Greens, Linke, and AfD all clustered between roughly 15% and 20%. National SPD weakness, coalition fatigue from the current CDU-SPD government, and voter migration toward the Linke have capped gains, while local issues such as housing shortages and security concerns create modest upward pressure. The narrow spread across recent surveys keeps implied probabilities for the 13-16% and 16%+ ranges closely matched, reflecting uncertainty over final turnout and late campaign shifts among left-leaning voters. Clear separation would require sustained momentum in one direction—through stronger debate performances, notable endorsements, or unexpected federal developments—before election day.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by SPD in the specified election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by SPD in the specified election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
Rynek otwarty: Aug 20, 2026, 2:22 PM ET
Wolumen
$0Data zakończenia
Sep 20, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 20, 2026, 2:22 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by SPD in the specified election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).Recent polls place the SPD around 15% in the September 20, 2026, Berlin state election, with the party competing in a fragmented field that includes the CDU, Greens, Linke, and AfD all clustered between roughly 15% and 20%. National SPD weakness, coalition fatigue from the current CDU-SPD government, and voter migration toward the Linke have capped gains, while local issues such as housing shortages and security concerns create modest upward pressure. The narrow spread across recent surveys keeps implied probabilities for the 13-16% and 16%+ ranges closely matched, reflecting uncertainty over final turnout and late campaign shifts among left-leaning voters. Clear separation would require sustained momentum in one direction—through stronger debate performances, notable endorsements, or unexpected federal developments—before election day.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by SPD in the specified election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by SPD in the specified election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
Wolumen
$0Data zakończenia
Sep 20, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 20, 2026, 2:22 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polls place the SPD around 15% in the September 20, 2026, Berlin state election, with the party competing in a fragmented field that includes the CDU, Greens, Linke, and AfD all clustered between roughly 15% and 20%. National SPD weakness, coalition fatigue from the current CDU-SPD government, and voter migration toward the Linke have capped gains, while local issues such as housing shortages and security concerns create modest upward pressure. The narrow spread across recent surveys keeps implied probabilities for the 13-16% and 16%+ ranges closely matched, reflecting uncertainty over final turnout and late campaign shifts among left-leaning voters. Clear separation would require sustained momentum in one direction—through stronger debate performances, notable endorsements, or unexpected federal developments—before election day.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
Uważaj na linki zewnętrzne.
Uważaj na linki zewnętrzne.
Często zadawane pytania